Commodity markets can change direction quickly. The challenge isn’t reacting after the move has already happened—it’s recognizing when the market itself is signaling that the trend may be changing.
At the end of June, Commodity Pro Service editor Jim Martens was closely tracking wheat as it completed what appeared to be the final stages of a decline.
As wheat met the minimum downside expectations for its Elliott wave pattern, Jim cautioned that the decline might be nearing completion—but that the near-term risk remained to the downside.
What We Said:
Commodity Pro Service, June 29:
Wheat – (Last Price 581 1/2): The dip below 582 1/4 met the minimum downside expectations for wave (v) of ((c)), but it does not mean the decline is complete. It might signal that wave ((c)) is late in development. It might be mature. But the near-term risk is to the downside.
Jim was right on all four counts: The decline was not complete. Wave ((c)) was late in its development. The decline was mature. The near-term risk was to the downside. Wheat dipped to 574 then reversed like a scalded rabbit. Jim updated his analysis:
Commodity Pro Service, June 30:
Wheat – (Last Price 587): The abrupt reversal from 574 might mark the end of the wave ((c)) decline from 700 and the resumption of the advance that started from 539 3/4. Third waves usually represent the extended wave of an impulse movement. Wave 3 should travel at least as far, and likely farther than wave 1.
Measured from today’s 574 low, the equality measure targets 694 1/2, though the rally is likely to carry toward the 768 area.
What Happened Next?
Wheat rallied 20.99% in just three weeks and by July 16, wheat had reached Jim’s initial upside objective.
Markets evolve quickly. Successful analysis isn’t about sticking to a forecast—it’s about recognizing when conditions have changed and adapting as new evidence emerges. Commodity Pro Service follows those developments as they unfold, helping subscribers understand what matters next.
Continue Following the Analysis
Commodity Pro Service
If you trade or invest in agricultural commodities, Commodity Pro Service provides intraday, daily and weekly Elliott wave analysis to help you stay on top of changing market conditions.
Coverage includes:
- Wheat, corn and soybeans
- Cocoa, coffee, cotton and sugar
- Live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs
- Lumber, orange juice and special opportunities
- Ongoing updates as market conditions evolve
Follow Jim Martens’ latest commodity analysis with Commodity Pro Service >>
Want a Broader View of the Commodity Markets?
While Commodity Pro Service provides ongoing analysis of individual commodity markets, Commodity Junctures offers a broader perspective on the trends shaping the agricultural sector.
Commodity Junctures
Every Friday, Jim Martens reviews dozens of charts to highlight his highest-confidence opportunities and biggest risks across grains, softs and livestock. Subscribers also receive a comprehensive monthly outlook and live webinar with Q&A, helping them stay aligned with the dominant trends developing throughout the commodity markets.
Whether you’re looking for the next opportunity or simply want a better understanding of where the commodity markets may be headed, Commodity Junctures helps you focus on the markets that deserve your attention.
About Jim:
Jim Martens Chief Commodity Analyst
A 35-year market veteran, Jim Martens has taught Elliott waves at dozens of trading seminars around the world and has always enjoyed interacting with subscribers. Jim began his study of R.N. Elliott’s Wave Principle in the mid-1980s, which led to a position with Sabin Commodities at the Commodity Exchange Center in New York. He joined EWI in 1993 and soon became the editor EWI’s Currency Outlook of our Currency & Commodities Forecast. In 2000, Jim accepted an invitation to join Nexus Capital Ltd. as their Chief Technical Analyst. He returned to EWI in 2004 to lead our FX and cryptocurrency teams. Jim now runs our Commodities Pro Service, Commodity Junctures and is one of our Trader’s Classroom instructors.
