In the January 2025 issue of Global Rates & Money Flows, Murray Gunn noted that the dollar’s advance from 2023 was approaching two important technical barriers: the upper boundary of its Elliott channel and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline.
His conclusion was unambiguous:
“We expect a significant decline in the U.S. dollar to be one of the highlights this year.”
That view ran counter to prevailing sentiment. Many investors still regarded the dollar as fundamentally strong and likely to continue rising.
Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index peaked within days of the forecast and turned sharply lower from the very resistance zone identified in advance.
The takeaway is that trend reversals often emerge when confidence in the existing trend is at its highest.
Today, Elliott Wave International continues to monitor the U.S. dollar and other major markets as new wave patterns develop.
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Murray Gunn Head of Global Research
Murray Gunn, MSTA, CFTe, CEWA, is Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International. He worked as a fund manager in global bonds, currencies and stocks, including long posts at Standard Life Investments and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Prior to joining EWI, he was Head of Technical Analysis at HSBC Bank. Murray is the author of the 2009 book Trading Regime Analysis and a contributor to Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture (Socionomics Institute Press, 2017). Murray is at the helm of EWI’s Global Rates & Money Flows and The European Short Term Update, while also providing commentary for Global Market Perspective.
