Japan’s New Skyscraper: A Warning Sign for NIKKEI 225

Hey, investors. Mark Galasiewski here.

Japanese stocks have performed well in recent months, but in late September, the groundbreaking ceremony was held in Tokyo for a building that will become Japan’s largest when it is completed in 2028. That bodes poorly for the Nikkei 225 index because, since the 1989 high in the index, groundbreakings for record tall buildings in Japan have tended to precede bear markets, based on The Skyscraper Indicator.

When construction began on the Yokohama Landmark Tower in March 1990, the Nikkei was already three months into its 19-year bear market. Construction started on the building that would surpass it, Abeno Harukas, in Osaka in January 2010, about three months before the start of a two-year bear market. Construction began on the current tallest building, Azabudai Hills, in Tokyo in August 2019, several months before the Coronavirus crash.

The groundbreaking ceremony on September 27 in Tokyo for the Torch Tower therefore bodes poorly for the Nikkei. Has Japan’s next bear market already started? And how long is it likely to last? You’ll find the answers to those questions in the October 2023 issue of Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast or Global Market Perspective.

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