Socionomics and Social Mood

Changes in social mood precede changes in the markets, the economy, politics and more. Understanding this insight equips you to anticipate major shifts in trends and capitalize on lucrative opportunities before most people see them coming. Content provided by EWI's affiliated research organization, the Socionomics Institute.

Why Economists Never See Trouble Until It's Too Late

Economists as a group are infamous for being over-the-moon optimistic just as a major bear market and recession are about to pulverize asset prices and send a tornado through the economy. Discover why and learn what consensus economist forecasts really tell you about the markets and economy when you watch this clip from the Pop Trends Price Culture videocast.

Fore!!! Golf's Echo with 1929

Can a sport -- like, for example, golf -- reflect the same social mood that drives the stock market? The one-word answer is YES. If you're new to the association of mood, markets, and sports ... then this fast essay by economist and EWI analyst Murray Gunn is a great read. Check it out.

Video Mood Riffs: Elon Musk & Sky-High Ambitions

When society is in a positive mood, the future looks bright. Business titans are revered. Inventors create ways to make life easier and feel more magical. Architects and astronauts alike reach for the stars. But when social mood turns negative, well, things change. Get a preview for the change in this edition of Video Mood Riffs, which features a review of Elon Musk's latest adventures and a "go big or bust" plan for a floating business district in Saudi Arabia.

See the Chart That Predicted the College Enrollment Meltdown Years Before Covid

You may have heard that university enrollment plummeted during the Covid pandemic. What you may not have heard is that enrollment had been declining on a per capita basis for nearly a decade before the pandemic began. See a classic chart from 2011 that used the Wave Principle to foresee the enrollment bust in real time.

Prepare for the Bear: Conspiracies, Magical Thinking and Wild Ideas

Sure, bear markets establish a "new normal" in the direction of stock prices. But the psychology behind the bear also establishes a new normal in the ideas that society embraces. Careful, rational thinking often goes out the window, in favor of impulsive, emotional appeals. The rejection of rationality can even come from within the scientific community itself -- with disastrous consequences. Learn more about these risks -- so that you can be ready for them -- when you watch this excerpt from the "Prepare for the Bear" conversation series.

Video Mood Riffs: Just Say No to Drug Charges & Improvised Market Explanations

In this new video version of the Mood Riffs column from The Socionomist, you'll learn how social mood shifts the public's view on drugs and why the Fed is not as in control of the markets as you may think.

Trouble in the Magic Kingdom

It's no secret that Disney has caught a slew of bad press lately. But why? Just about everyone looks to politics for an explanation, yet there's much more to the story. See a unique take on the House of Mouse's misfortunes in this video from the May 2022 issue of EWI's Global Market Perspective.

A Maleficent Mood Strikes Disney's Stock Price

"Disney" and "lightning rod for controversy" rarely appear in the same sentence, but the House of Mouse has found itself at the center of a series of storms over the past 12 months. Learn why even tougher times might be in store for the Most Magical Place on Earth.

What a Brutal Bear Market Brings Besides Crashing Stock Prices

Yes, it's important to take the necessary steps to protect one's portfolio before the start of a bear market. Yet, there's much more to a bear market than plummeting financial prices. Here are some key insights.

Let's Slay a Financial "Zombie Myth" Once and For All

We've all heard that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. After all, the Fed's monthly interest rate decisions get covered in the financial news pages all over the world. But what if the Fed's interest rate potency was a myth that could be shattered with a quick look at one chart? See the chart for yourself in this clip from the Pop Trends Price Culture videocast.

Why Are Rock Stars Selling Out and Cashing In?

Iconic musicians from the Beach Boys to Bob Dylan to Bruce Springsteen have recently inked eye-popping deals for the rights to their songs. Discover why investors and music publishers are willing to break the bank to make these deals -- and what it signals about society's broader enthusiasm for financial assets.

Prepare for the Bear: Your Roadmap to the 'New Normal'

You know about the financial chaos that bear markets bring. What you may not know is that bear market psychology also brings chaos and disruption to a bevy of other aspects of daily life. Consider politics. As a bear market develops, society polarizes, political extremism rises, and the status quo becomes up for grabs. See a roadmap for how the process unfolds -- and discover some order amid the chaos -- when you watch this excerpt from the "Prepare for the Bear" conversation series.

Prepare for the Bear: Conflict Heats Up

Bear markets bring risks to more than just your portfolio. The psychology behind bear markets, for example, drives people apart in countless ways. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a prime illustration of that, but not the only one. Unrest boils in the streets, international alliances crumble, friendships break down. Learn more about these risks -- so that you can be ready for them -- when you watch this excerpt from the "Prepare for the Bear" conversation series.

Russia vs. Ukraine: How to Predict an Invasion Using the Stock Market

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is just the latest chapter in the country's military resurgence during its 14-year bear market. Discover how EWI analysts used Russia's primary stock index to foresee not only the recent incursion but also Russia's invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 in this review of real-time commentary from the past 15 years.

How Will Russia-Ukraine War Impact the Stock Market?

We answer that question differently than anyone else. For a historical perspective, see the stock market's surprising price action surrounding four major wars. These four charts lead to a conclusion that upends conventional wisdom and reveals the value of using war to anticipate the market's moves.