“See Our S&P 500 Chart and Forecast from Before the Big Decline”
Here’s a daily chart of the S&P 500 with the action from April through Monday, August 5. The Index peaked here on July 16 with the recent decline of 9+ percent that followed.
So, let’s back up the price to May 31, about 6 weeks before that July high. On that day, our Short Term Update showed a version of this chart to subscribers. We said:
“The S&P was tracing out a clear five way rally.”
Four of those waves were already in place: 1, 2, 3, 4, with Wave 5 unfolding. When Wave 5 was complete, the trend would turn, as we indicated with this directional arrow.
The rally did continue through July 15. On that day, Short Term Update said this to subscribers:
“Upward momentum is waning…the S&P remains vulnerable to decline.”
The next day’s session saw a marginal new high and then closed lower on July 17. After the close, Short Term Update‘s forecast said:
“The S&P’s waning momentum has given way to an outright decline.”
From there, the downtrend continued in a 9% fall through August 5.
Not all forecasts work out this way. Markets are dynamic.
Our current Short Term Update has up-to-the-minute charts and forecasts for the major U.S. stock indexes. Visit elliottwave.com for more.
See Our S&P 500 Chart and Forecast from Before the Big Decline
See for yourself why our subscribers were not surprised when the trend in the S&P 500 turned down.
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