When you see the term “throw-over,” you may be tempted to think of a children’s game. But, in Elliott wave nomenclature, a “throw-over” occurs when a fifth wave breaks its channel. This price move can precede a major reversal. Our January Global Market Perspective provides a case in point:
What kind of catastrophic development could cause a company to lose a third of its value in a few hours? It turns out that Nordisk’s latest drug offering, CagriSema, underwent clinical trials, and patients lost an average of 22.7% of their body weight, slightly below the expected percentage loss of 25%.
Did a 2.3% shortfall in weight loss actually create a €90 billion market meltdown? The answer, in our view, is both yes and no. Yes, because investors herd in the face of uncertainty, and when a stock is overextended, even a tiny sliver of bad news can send prices reeling. No, because stock market patterns arise from unconscious decisions that depend far less on what the company is doing and far more on what fellow investors are doing. The wave model doesn’t always get things right, but we never wait around looking for the news that perpetually arrives after the fact.
In fact, the Global Market Perspective profiled Novo Nordisk more than a year ago. The October 2023 GMP published the lefthand chart below, indicating that Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (5) was ending. We called the stock a “critically stretched rubber band”:

As the updated chart on the right shows, wave 5 of (5) peaked above the top channel boundary in a pattern that R.N. Elliott called a “throw-over.” Throw-overs precede directional change and typically see prices return back below the channel boundary. True to form, shares completed the round trip by October 2024, fully two months before the 30% wipeout on December 20, 2024.
We certainly don’t know the inner workings of Novo Nordisk’s drug pipeline, but … any forthcoming company news is largely written into the waves already.
And news about other well-known companies is also written into the waves already. Are you ready to anticipate what is likely next for companies which may already be on your radar screen? Follow this link to tap into the Elliott wave insights of our 60-plus page Global Market Perspective now.
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