Sports betting has exploded, with bets totaling $150 billion in 2024 (Legal Sports Report). U.S. casinos had “their best year ever” (AP) in 2023. Sure doesn’t seem like your grandparents’ idea of “investing”! This is from our January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:
Last month, we showed a big increase in the combined total value of CBOE Small Traders net long futures positions. The total value continued higher to a new record of $102.9 billion the week of December 17. This chart shows another measure of small traders’ willingness to commit to stocks: the ratio of total put premiums relative to total call premiums paid each week on 10 options contracts or less. The ratio of 0.32 the week of December 6 and the following week of December 12 is the lowest since a reading of 0.29 the week of November 19, 2021:
If financial pundits could get outside the bubble, they would marvel at how fully formed and yet flawed are the make-believe worlds of the retail revolution, cryptocurrencies and stocks. As we explained last month, the current peaking process is so powerful it has managed to blur the “lines between the gambling, investment and sports worlds.” In December, the merger became too pronounced to avoid detection. At this point, an unparalleled social impetus to bet big on just about anything is evident in this Business Insider [headline] on December 19:
America Is One Big Casino Now
2024 was the year we started to bet on everything
In the speculative arena, the YOLO/FOMO/HODL/“to-the-moon” r/Reddit crowd is running the show and, in many cases, is indistinguishable from the sports betting crowd. The only difference is that sports bettors generally take an analytical approach to their picks. For many stock investors, thoughtful judgment disappeared years ago.
Learn how we put this “go for broke” gambling spirit into context with our latest Elliott wave analysis of two key stock indexes. Check out our flagship services now by following this link.
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