How Elliott Waves Caught the 50% Drop in Nat Gas

Welcome to Chart of the Day. I’m Robert Folsom. “See the Pattern That Saw the 50-Percent Decline in Natural Gas (beforehand!)”

Here we have the natural gas energy market from January 2023 through February 14, 2024. You can see that price moved mostly sideways all year, that is, until November, which is when the market got interesting.

So, let’s zoom in to see how the Elliott wave pattern anticipated the turn and the trend to come and then kept our Global Market Perspective subscribers ahead of the opportunity.

Here’s the Daily Bar for Friday, October 27, when the November issue of our monthly Global Market Perspective published. Our natural gas chart showed subscribers that a Wave 4 high was in place, along with this directional arrow for what was next. Our commentary said,

“…a bearish stance seems warranted despite the approaching high-demand winter months.”

In other words, despite assumptions about a seasonal price rise, the Elliott wave pattern called for a move down.

So, here’s what followed through December 1. That was the day our December issue published. Our forecast for that month said,

“Natural gas should extend its decline … to below the 1.946 continuation low.”

This commentary was clear about the trend, yet GMP is a monthly publication, so the chart we showed subscribers included these wave labels to suggest how the pattern itself would unfold. Our forecast did also say,

“Near-term, a countertrend advance seems due.”

And from there, price indeed declined a bit further, then began to edge higher through December 29, when we published the January issue of GMP. Our January forecast was plain:

“The current rebound is countertrend. At a minimum, [the trend] should carry prices below 1.946.”

Year two, our chart showed a clear directional arrow. What followed saw the countertrend rally conclude and the dominant downtrend lower resume, moving below 1.946 through February 14.

Not all forecasts work out this way. The pattern in natural gas is still in progress.

The February issue of Global Market Perspective can be on your screen in moments via the fast steps below.

Read Our Forecasts Now … or Wait Till “Old News” Headlines Later

The point is to be on the right side of the opportunity. You’ve just seen a powerful example of forecasting a huge trend reversal before it unfolds: Global Market Perspective subscribers were not surprised by the big fall in natural gas.

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