Okay, so no, it’s not a spaceship story, but it IS about an Apollo that fell to earth.
In a January 6, 2025 Global Rates & Money Flows Daily Insight, Murray Gunn showed this chart and wrote:
“Private equity and credit markets have boomed since the Great Financial Crisis, greatly aided by the era of free money. Now that era has come to an end… The leading player involved with private credit is Apollo Asset Management, Inc… The share price of Apollo… completed a five-wave advance from 2022 at $189.49.”
His message was larger than one stock: if private credit were going to crack, it could show up here first.
What Happened Next?
Apollo has fallen roughly 33% and traded under $100/share a few weeks ago.
In the April issue of Global Rates & Money Flows, Murray suggests Apollo’s decline may be signaling something larger developing in private credit. His current wave analysis points to the possibility that a far more dramatic phase could lie ahead.
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Murray Gunn Head of Global Research
Murray Gunn, MSTA, CFTe, CEWA, is Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International. He worked as a fund manager in global bonds, currencies and stocks, including long posts at Standard Life Investments and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Prior to joining EWI, he was Head of Technical Analysis at HSBC Bank. Murray is the author of the 2009 book Trading Regime Analysis and a contributor to Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture (Socionomics Institute Press, 2017). Murray is at the helm of EWI’s Global Rates & Money Flows and The European Short Term Update, while also providing commentary for Global Market Perspective.
