Answer: Neither
This is one promise the next U.S. president has no control over
Apologies to Miss Manners but these days, the etiquette rule of not bringing politics to the dinner table is like asking people not to chew their food. The 2024 U.S. presidential race is THE TALK of cocktail parties, carpool lanes and office coolers nationwide.
If you’re not actively seeking it out, it’s coming to you via unsolicited emails and text messages from the two contending parties, asking for your campaign donations and support. Either:
OR
Though opposed, the Democratic promise to “build up the middle class” and the Republican oath to “make America great again” translate into the same message: My party will ensure the world’s largest economy stays that way.
So, who is better equipped for the job?
The answer: Neither.
In the book Socionomic Causality in Politics, Matt Lampert referenced a multi-hyphenate Princeton University research paper that showed no outstanding correlation between the party in the White House and economic performance. Lampert wrote:
Since 1857, the average annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate has been 3.29% with a Republican in the White House and 3.84% with a Democrat in the White House. In nominal terms (without adjusting for inflation), average annual GDP growth has been 5.01% for Republicans and 6.61% for Democrats. In both cases, the Democrats appear to have the lead. But … outlying values can have a substantial impact on averages. To illustrate just how similar the country’s average economic performance has been under the two parties, consider what happens when we remove two presidential terms—the one with the highest rate of annual real GDP growth and the one with the lowest—from each party’s tally. Average annual real GDP growth under Republican presidents becomes 3.53% vs. 3.51% for Democrats, virtually identical values.
Lampert also noted that the U.S. stock market has had nearly the same average annual performance under both parties.
This blows conventional wisdom out of the swamp. In its place, a revolutionary Socionomics understanding, as expressed in Socionomic Causality in Politics:
It is endogenously regulated social mood—not presidents’ policies—that regulate a society’s drive to innovate, grow and prosper.
Social mood shapes economic growth. By proxy and not because of, whatever party is in power receives credit for its success, or failure.
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