Free Commentary

Browse our latest free commentary with videos and articles.

“A sign of investor nervousness”

Our newest service, Global Rates & Money Flows, is aimed at big-picture thinkers. Besides a comprehensive monthly letter, editor Murray Gunn also posts a "Daily Interest" update. The one for May 15 directs your attention to a noteworthy divergence between CCC-rated bonds and those rated one notch higher. Both are junk bonds — and "junk: is telling a story.

Gold: How to Gauge Investors’ Level of Interest

Investors the world over are wondering if gold’s rally has any more steam. Let’s examine recent Gold Open Interest and how that compares with prior price advances.

If You’re Using “Market Fundamentals” to Forecast Commodities, STOP, DROP and READ This RIGHT NOW

In 2020, the “market fundamentals” path for live cattle pointed south care of the 800-knot gust of pandemic winds. But cattle’s next mooooooove would upend all mainstream logic and lead to a 3-year long bull run to record highs. Follow along today!

No Pants? Right This Way!

You’ve seen the sign “No Shirt – No Shoes – No Service” in some convenience stores. But today, “no pants” is not just a “beach bum” look – it’s the hottest trend in women’s fashion. Now, what does it have to do with the financial markets, you may ask? In a word, everything. Mood Riffs host Greg Eident explains.

Hedge Funds Dominate Wall Street: What Could Go Wrong?

Groupthink pervades all subsets of financial market participants – individual investors, financial advisors, corporate insiders, hedge fund managers and others. Let’s focus on one of these subsets – hedge fund managers. You might be surprised by what you learn.

Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. EWI Head of Global Research Murray Gunn reveals a key metric that you can use to spot the “smoke” and determine your bank’s health.

JP Morgan Stock (JPM) Soars to Record Highs: “Elliott Wavinization” in Action

2024 has JP Morgan Chase (JPM) bulls smokin’ stogies to celebrate the stock’s powerful rally to lifetime highs on March 28 — despite a very bearish reason not to. Today we show how JPM’s uptrend has been part of an Elliott wave plan all along. Settle in for the full story.

Investors Are Obsessed with the Stock Market. Time to Buy?

The stock market’s decline this spring did not faze many Main Street investors. Indeed, instead of getting nervous, they bought. Here’s what you need to know about retail investors at major market turns.


In this episode of Wave Length, experts explain the Elliott wave theory, and how they used it to navigate the 2008 global financial crisis, timing both up and down moves with precision. Discover how you can learn this powerful theory to become a market expert yourself.

S-Oye Vey! Soybeans & Soymeal Crash and… Turn. Elliott Waves Make Sense of the Swings

The soy complex struck a bearish note as 2024 began: Both soybeans and soymeal plunged to 3-year lows in late February before changing their tune in late April. Turn up the volume on Elliott wave analysis and you can hear the full story as to what’s causing the grains’ wild ride.

Real Estate Woes and Price Deflation Hit China: Is the U.S. Next?

Are you ready for the next financial crisis? History shows that they take most people by surprise. One big clue for what may be ahead for the U.S. is unfolding in China right now. Here’s what I’m talking about.

Stocks: Up. Economy: Strong. So Why Does My Wallet Say Otherwise?

Stocks: Up. Economy: Strong. So Why Does My Wallet Say Otherwise?

There’s money — and then there’s REAL money. Turns out that when you price assets using gold as the benchmark, an interesting picture emerges. In his new video, Global Market Perspective contributor Brian Whitmer shows you that picture and reveals why your wallet — and the world — is so distressed.

Stoxx Europe 600: What Signs of Investor Exuberance Keep Telling Us

European Analyst, Brian Whitmer, discusses several warning signs of exuberance flashing throughout Europe, including investors “sinking vast sums into strategies whose performance hinges on enduring equity calm.”

Why Real Estate Prices Soared (and What May Be Next)

Why does the housing market sometimes soar and then crash like the stock market? Here’s an explanation. Plus, get our insights into what may be next for home prices.

Europe’s “Fear Index” VIX Equivalent: Why “Quiet” Spells “Dangerous”

Just a couple of months ago, stock market investors in the U.S. and Europe were exhibiting an almost total lack of worry toward risk. Yet, ironically, those are the very times when investors should be the most cautious. This chart shows when spikes in volatility are most likely to occur.

Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Indicator Now

Financial markets are full of paradoxes and irony. For example, when conviction about a financial trend is the most pronounced, that’s the very time to turn the most cautious. This famous indicator is sending a critical message.

Semiconductors: Elliott Wave Update on This Hot Sector

Many investors linearly extrapolate an existing trend into the future. The beauty of the Elliott wave model is that it helps to anticipate when a financial trend will turn. This hot stock-market sector provides a case in point.

Market Trek: What 4 Time-Tested “Financial Stress” Indicators Show Today

We all know that periods of financial calm are followed by periods of financial turmoil. But how do you know WHEN the change might happen? Here’s Market Trek host Brian Whitmer with 4 time-tested market sentiment indicators explaining what their current readings suggest next. (Brian’s global destination today is Japan.)

How to Forecast a Market’s Turning Point with Elliott Waves

You can use something called an “Elliott wave channel” to forecast the end of a wave within a pattern. Watch a recent example from the Swiss Market Index – our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, explains.

How to Determine Stop Placements

How to Determine Stop Placements

Watch Trader’s Classroom’s Robert Kelley tackle a popular question, "How can Elliott Waves help me manage risk?" In this excerpt, Robert demonstrates two ways for calculating Elliott Wave stop levels.

Here’s What Happened Last Time Investment Managers Were This Bullish

Watch out when nearly every money manager positions themselves on the same side of a market trend – and does so with leverage. Here are insights into what many active investment managers have been doing with their portfolios – and why every investor should be interested.

TSLA, Elon Musk – and the “Magazine Indicator”

Think back to three years ago, November 2021. Electric vehicle fever is everywhere. RIVN just went public. TSLA soared to all-time highs – in fact, the EV giant’s ascent as “unstoppable,” said Wall Street. But on Dec. 15, 2021, a famous magazine cover indicator put the “cherry on top” of TSLA’s rally. This call couldn’t have been better “TIMED.”

Market Trek: “$1,000,000,000,000 Every 100 Days”

A U.S. senator once quipped, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Well, it’s not “billion” anymore. One trillion dollars every one hundred days – that’s the pace of the growth in the U.S. national debt. There are a few other debt figures you should know about… Watch our Market Trek host Brian Whitmer explain more. (Brian’s global destination today is Niseko, Japan.)

This “Bullish Buzz” Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years

The word to describe today’s bullish market sentiment is “relentless.” Indeed, this sentiment measure recently reached its highest level in more than a half-century! Here are the details.

Caterpillar (CAT) Soars to a 95-Year High! Great – But Here’s How You Could’ve Caught This Bull Run Last November.

On April 5, Big Board veteran Caterpillar Inc. soared to its highest level since starting to trade in the year 1929. For Elliott wavers, though, the time to take a bullish leap on CAT was back in November. Today’s story reveals exactly meow – err, how — they landed on their feet.

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”?

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”?

In 2010, the Fed established the Financial Stress Index — a measure of how "normal" the financial conditions are. The index goes back to 1993, and right now, it stands at -0.937, or "low stress." But a very interesting picture emerges when you line up its highs and lows with the S&P 500. This chart from our April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast explains the setup — see it now.

3 Signs of Developing U.S. Economic Slowdown

The U.S. economy grew 3.4% in Q1, yet there are at least 3 signs that trouble is brewing. Indeed, the number of delinquencies are higher now in this sector than they were in the wake of the Great Recession.

It’s True: Central Bankers Fight a Trend Until It Ends — And THEN Join It

Does heavy buying or selling of an investment item by central banks make the price of that asset rise or fall? You might be surprised. This chart and commentary from the Socionomic Theory of Finance are eye-opening.

EU Stocks:

EU Stocks: “Cheaper” Doesn’t Mean “Cheap” — Plus, a Look at Coming Volatility Storm

When we hear mainstream arguments like "It’s different this time!" — we take them with a grain of salt. Sure, things always change, but some things just don’t. Here’s our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor, Brian Whitmer, walking you through an eye-opener of a chart of European stock market volatility that leads into a discussion of whether the EU stocks are about to outperform their U.S. counterparts.

From 1-Year Low to 11-Month High, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Dresses to Impress

Just mere weeks ago in late February, the future of the world’s largest gold miners exchange-traded fund (VanEck) looked bleak. “Market fundamentals” pointed the stock down. But the Elliott wave picture urged: dig deeper. Read what we uncovered then, and where we see the stock going now – today.