Happy New Year, everyone, and welcome to January’s Global Market Perspective.
It’s really set up to be an amazing year with half the world’s population voting in elections. Big developments are happening, particularly with regard to debt.
Over the turn of the new year, U.S. government debt surpassed $34 trillion for the first time. That is double what it was in 2013.
It’s essentially been doubling every decade or so since the 1980s. At this rate, we can look forward to around $70 trillion in 2034.
Being an unashamed geek, the $34 trillion milestone made my ears prick up — 34 being a Fibonacci number. For fun, I thought I would see what happened to the stock market when other Fibonacci numbers were passed.
Curiously, it seems that there very well might be a link between wobbles in the stock market and milestones in the U.S. government debt. Check out the article to find out more.
But our Elliott wave analysis is already pointing to big changes this year. The ballooning U.S. debt may add to the volatility.
Enjoy the issue.
2024 is shaping up to be an unusual year.
For one, more than 50% of the world’s population is going to be voting in elections. Just 7 stocks in the S&P 500 have been holding up the entire index; only 5 stocks in the German DAX. Bond yields and inflation are off the highs, but interest rates aren’t, and borrowing is far from “free.” Gold tried to rally but seems to be having second thoughts. Europe’s biggest ground war since WWII rages on, and the Middle East is on fire.
But what can we see through the objective lens of Elliott waves? On that, we have something to show you.
Markets keep moving in predictable patterns. Track them, and you’ll have a good idea about what’s next.
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