Around the first week of the year, the outlook for gold was not looking promising, at least according to this Jan. 5 headline (Reuters):
Gold set for weekly decline as dollar, yields climb
The rally in gold which started in early October continued to struggle for much of the rest of January.
Even though the mainstream media was looking to so-called fundamentals – such as the action of the dollar or bond yields – Elliott Wave International focused on the patterns of investor psychology – as reflected by Elliott waves.
Indeed, on Jan. 24, our U.S. Short Term Update said:
Spot [Gold] made its lowest close since January 17 today. Still, prices remain above $1972.89, which keeps the short-term bullish potential dominant. The [unfolding Elliott wave] should carry gold well above $2250 as the rally’s pattern progresses.
Keep in mind that when this analysis was offered more than two months ago, the price of gold was trading around $2013 – a far cry from our price target above $2250.
Now, fast forward to April 1 and this headline (CNBC):
Treasury yields jump to start second quarter
As you’ll recall, rising bond yields were mentioned in the media as a negative for gold back in January.
But what did gold do on April 1? Correct – it hit another all-time high.
Not only that, April 1 was the day that our price target was reached.
Here’s a quote from our April 1 U.S. Short Term Update:
The initial upside target for [Gold] was “above $2250,” which we first stated in the January 24 Short Term Update and reaffirmed throughout February and March. Gold hit this target today when spot prices pushed to $2263.64 intraday.
On April 2, gold traded even higher.
Remember, we don’t make forecasts for financial markets – like gold – based on common beliefs about “fundamentals” which investors cannot count on.
Instead, we arrive at price targets based on Elliott wave analysis.
Now is the time to learn what we anticipate next for gold by following the link below.
Gold: Setting Near-Term Price Targets (Video)
This was our “initial upside target” – which has now been exceeded. What’s next?
Earlier this year, a headline said gold suffered a decline due to rising bond yields. Yet, on April 1, gold hit a record high – even though bond yields climbed higher. Instead of looking at so-called fundamentals, investors may want to take this approach to forecasting financial markets.