Forget the Fed -- Watch the Waves

Updated: June 2, 2023

Want to Know When Interest Rates Might Spike Again? Watch AAPL.

Updated: May 24, 2023

Treasury Bonds: How This Forecast is Playing Out

Updated: May 23, 2023

Want to “Intimidate Everybody”? Be a Bond Market

Updated: May 23, 2023

Debt Default: Does It Really Mean Life, Liberty, and … an Ever-rising Dow?

Updated: May 16, 2023

Why You Can't Afford to Ignore "The Money Supply"

Updated: May 5, 2023

It's been 90 years since the money supply fell so far so quickly. Watch Chart of the Day to better understand the recent bank runs, closings, and collapse of prices in financial sector stocks.

Why U.S. Jobless Rate May Be Set to Accelerate

Updated: May 5, 2023

Mass layoffs are occurring at a slew of well-known companies. This Elliott wave pattern of the U.S. Jobless Claims chart suggests what may be next. Review the chart and learn which financial assets usually turn down before the onset of a recession.

Shh! What’s That “Crunch”?

Updated: May 2, 2023

The modern economy runs on credit – and lately, credit volumes have been shrinking at a rate not seen since the Great Recession of 2008-09. The “credit crunch “ is well underway -- see for yourself in one chart that Murray Gunn, our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor, shows you in his new video.

Your Bank: “Use This as an Early Warning Signal”

Updated: April 27, 2023

There is a way to get a good idea if your bank is headed for trouble. That sign was flashing red before First Republic Bank's shares plummeted by around 50% on April 25. Here are the details.

Bonds: How to Handle "Wild Swings"

Updated: April 25, 2023

All liquid markets exhibit Elliott wave patterns. It's a function of investor psychology, to unfold ins a patterned way. That's why even when prices swing "wildly," there is hidden order in the seeming chaos. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk your through a chart of UK Long Gilts to explain more.

Corporate Bonds: “The Next Shoe to Drop”

Updated: April 20, 2023

A classic technical chart pattern reveals bad news for the corporate bond market. Take a look at the chart. Plus, learn why relying on ratings services for timely warnings may not always be wise.

Stocks: Sell in May – or Before?

Updated: April 14, 2023

Should you take the old market saying "Sell in May and go away" seriously? You might be interested in knowing that the genesis of this saying goes back centuries. Here's some of the background.

Just How Many Technical Analysis Tools Do You Need?

Updated: April 13, 2023

Every day, you have a choice of hundreds of technical indicators, beyond the bread-and-butter MACD, RSI and Elliott waves. But how many do you need to make a confident forecast? In his new video, our Interest Rates Pro Service editor Nady Laymoud gives you common-sense answers using U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes.

A Seven-Decade Chart of Interest Rate Spikes and Crises: Here We Go Again

Updated: April 12, 2023

For decades, the binge-purge credit cycle has ravaged companies, markets and entire economic sectors: The chart speaks for itself -- see it now (plus what may be next).

Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?)

Updated: April 11, 2023

Financial advisors are no doubt well-intentioned, but the cookie-cutter guidance of 60% stocks / 40% bonds was a fiasco in 2022. Many investors who followed that strategy are still fuming. Elliott Wave International urges independent thinking for the remainder of 2023 -- and beyond.

Shadow Banking: 10 Times the Size of All U.S. Commercial Banks

Updated: April 6, 2023

The unregulated world of shadow banking may contribute to the next financial crisis -- which could be more severe than what occurred in 2008. Get insights into shadow banking and why it should be on your radar screen.

Everything, Everywhere; All at Once

Updated: April 5, 2023

Bonds are supposed to be a safe haven that you buy into -- and forget about. But, as you know, bonds have been anything but boring lately. And -- yes, there WAS a way to expect a drop in bond prices and the corresponding jump in yields/interest rates. See the "before and after" chart in this excerpt from our new, April Financial Forecast.

Private Credit Markets: Here’s What Might be “Around the Corner”

Updated: April 4, 2023

One of the biggest players in the private credit market has seen its share price steadily decline, and Elliott wave analysis was there to catch the latest leg down before it happened. The drop in the stock price of this financial behemoth may be a sign of trouble "beneath the surface." Here's some of our analysis.

The Treasury Bond: We Forecast the Turn From a 12-Year Low (plus what followed)

Updated: March 24, 2023

October 2022 saw a huge turn in Treasury Bonds. The turbulence since then includes the banking sector crisis. See our forecast on the day of this pivotal juncture -- plus what exactly what our Short Term Update has said in the time since.

Interest Rate Whiplash: Our Forecast Before Bank Implosions!

Updated: March 20, 2023

Have a look at recent action in the huge 10-year Treasury Note market, and see the opportunity subscribers had to "position correctly" before Silicon Valley Bank's explosive failure made headlines.

Banks in Trouble: Our Forecast from October 2022

Updated: March 15, 2023

There's little-to-nothing one investor can do about a systemic banking crisis - except to have the knowledge to get out of the way beforehand. See how we helped subscribers do exactly that.

Trend vs. Trend Correction: How to Spot the Difference

Updated: March 14, 2023

"The trend is your friend," they say, but how many times have you jumped into a move thinking it WAS the trend -- only to see the market turn around and retrace the entire move? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain how he deals with this problem.

Those Bankers!

Updated: March 10, 2023

Are they set up to be blamed again?

Back in October we wrote about how banks were carrying heavy losses on their bond portfolios and that it was a problem that was not going to go away.

Check out this chart that is a "thing of beauty" to see what's next for banks.

U.S. “Debt Bomb” Has Gone Off

Updated: March 10, 2023

Adjusted for inflation, consumer debt in the U.S. has been contracting for two years. That may sound like a good thing... but first, take a look at this chart in the new video by our Financial Forecast co-editor, Peter Kendall.

Yes, This Chart IS Real!

Updated: March 8, 2023

The included chart shows just how incredible recent events in financial markets have been. See the chart and learn what it entails for you!

How Far Might an Elliott Wave Correction Go?

Updated: February 14, 2023

Markets develop in 5 and 3-wave patterns, says the Elliott Wave Principle. So, what should you expect after you see a 5-wave move on a chart? And if a 3-wave correction develops, how far might it go? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst, Ivo Zhelev, give you a quick lesson by looking at the recent price action in the Eurex Bund.

Back to Elliott Waves Basics

Updated: February 7, 2023

"On a chart, where do I start my wave count?" -- "What should I expect after a 5-wave move?" -- ??? -- Answers to these and other basic questions are the foundation of Elliott wave application in real markets. In his new video, our Interest Rates Pro Service editor Nady Laymoud gives you answers using U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes.

Eurex Bund: Taking Elliott on the Road Less Traveled

Updated: January 24, 2023

We often get asked if Elliott waves work in markets other than the major ones. The answer is a resounding yes. The waves track investor psychology, so anywhere you have a group of investors buying and selling, you'll see waves shaping the trends. Watch this quick wave lesson from our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst, Ivo Zhelev.

The ECB Is Hiking Rates Less! That's great... Wait, it's not?

Updated: January 20, 2023

Ever think something is good news only to find out differently? In this excerpt from the January Global Market Perspective, EWI's Brian Whitmer looks at what happened in the past when the ECB stopped rate hikes and what happened to the stock market afterwards.

Chinese Govt. Bonds: What to Expect Over Next Few Months

Updated: January 10, 2023

The Chinese yuan has been getting stronger, while the U.S. dollar and China's government bond prices have been falling. If you plot the yuan and bonds on a chart, an interesting relationship emerges. Watch as our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update editor, Chris Carolan, explain more in his new video.

Bond, Germany's Bond Yield. No Time to Fly... And Yet Fly is What It Did!

Updated: January 6, 2023

Between 2019 and 2021, the yield on Germany's 10-year government bond (i.e., bund) plumbed record-shattering lows. Mainstream analysts declared negative yields "the new normal" amidst stagflation, recession, and an uncertain post-pandemic future. But then, the abnormal happened.

Major Fed Myth: Debunked

Updated: December 29, 2022

Many financial-market observers believe that central banks set the trend of interest rates. You may be surprised to learn that this is not so. Let's explore the relationship between rates set by the market and rates set by these two central banks.

Stocks are Expensive: An Eye-Opening Perspective

Updated: December 22, 2022

U.S. stocks have been in a downtrend for nearly a year, even so, equities are expensive. Despite warning signs, many money managers are optimistic about stocks for 2023. Here are the specifics.

"Bond Universe": Looking Across ALL Bond Sectors at Once

Updated: December 20, 2022

"Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index Yield" is a mouthful. Meanwhile, this comprehensive index shows you -- on one chart! -- what we call the "bond universe." And wouldn't you know it, the same chart also shows an Elliott wave pattern that hints at what's likely next. Watch our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, explain more.

60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha!

Updated: December 6, 2022

Mainstream financial advisors have made the idea of investment diversification a standard rule. But the better approach is to know the trend of markets -- not diversify for its own sake. Here's an example of how conventional investment wisdom can let investors down.

Bonds: 2023 Likely to Be Just as Dramatic

Updated: December 1, 2022

You know what junk bonds are, but there are tiers of investment-grade bonds that are just above that lower threshold. And when you look at the spread between them, an interesting picture emerges. Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor, Murray Gunn, explain more.

U.S. 10-Year Notes: "There's No Doubt About the Trend"

Updated: November 21, 2022

U.S. Treasury prices have been on the downside trajectory; yields have been rising. The question is, when might this trend end? And how do we use Elliott waves to spot a reversal? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor Jim Martens answer these questions using a chart of the 10-year Notes.

Market Trek: Nope, Fed's "Pivot" Won't Spark a Stock Rally

Updated: November 18, 2022

You hear a lot of talk these days that as soon as the Fed stops raising interest rates, the bull market will return. As it's often the case, one look at a simple chart dispels this myth. Watch our Market Trek host Brian Whitmer do just that in his new video report. (Brian's global destination today is Bangkok, Thailand.)

“Banks are becoming more cautious about lending”

Updated: November 10, 2022

Banks are tightening credit standards. This is par for the course when social mood is trending negatively. Take a look at this chart.

How to "Uncomplicate" This Complicated Market

Updated: November 10, 2022

Bond markets are huge and intimidating, many investors believe. For starters, how about that "prices up/yields down" thing, and vice versa? But watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst show you how Elliott waves make light work of figuring out what's next. (In focus: German 10-year bond yields.)

Another 75 BPS Hike Roils Bonds? It's Not Why Treasury Yields Rose. And it Won't Tell You Where They're Headed Next

Updated: November 7, 2022

On November 2, the US Federal Reserve jacked borrowing rates a familiar 75 BPS. And, on November 3, 10-year Treasury notes slid hard/yields rose above 4%. If you think the one event caused the other, this story will give you pause to think again.

It’s Another Fed Day. Want to Know What They’ll Do AHEAD of Time?

Updated: November 2, 2022

Lately, investor and trader attention has been glued to the Federal Reserve policy. Will they raise interest rates? If yes, how much? If they stop raising, when might that happen? Watch our Chief Market Analyst Steven Hochberg offer a simple clue at how to know the Fed's next move ahead of time in this interview with Soar Financial Live.

Why Investors in U.S. Treasuries Face Major Risk

Updated: October 27, 2022

Trouble appears to be brewing for the biggest bond market in the world -- U.S. Treasuries. Learn how Elliott Wave International anticipated the upward trend in yields.

Global Financial Risk: “Like in August 2007”

Updated: October 6, 2022

Is the world on the cusp of another major financial crisis -- like the one which occurred between 2007 and 2009? A former U.S. Treasury Secretary pipes in -- plus, Elliott Wave International offers its own perspective.

The Fed Didn’t Lead the Bond Bear Market… It Followed It

Updated: September 28, 2022

Was there a way to anticipate the epic bearish turn in bonds before the Fed's aggressive rate hikes? Yes -- see the chart and forecast GMP subscribers saw in December 2021, showing that bond yields were about to explode.

How to Anticipate Big Market Moves

Updated: September 27, 2022

Which market? Any market! Any market with sufficient liquidity to show consistent Elliott wave patterns. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst Ivo Zhelev walk you through a chart of the UK Long Gilts as an example -- and a quick Elliott wave lesson.

10-Year Yields Hit 11-Year Highs: Ole “Sawbones” Powell Isn’t to Blame

Updated: September 26, 2022

A "hawkish Fed" supposedly drove a price spike higher in late July/early August ... yet the same action produced an 11-year price low on September 22? Now see what real analysis and forecasts look like in this Chart of the Day.

Why You Should Be Leery of the 60 / 40 Portfolio

Updated: September 15, 2022

Investors with the traditional 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio have been disappointed in 2022. Instead of providing a financial "cushion," bonds have tumbled right along with equities. Review these timely warnings.

SEC Wants to Tame Bond Markets. Fact Is, They’re Already “Tamed”

Updated: September 13, 2022

On September 14, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will draft new rules for trading Treasury markets. The hope: make notes "less vulnerable" to "wild price swings" caused by the post-pandemic economic uncertainty. But our assessment of 10-year T-Notes shows prices have been diligently obeying rules at every turn. Just not the ones you might think.

Just How "Stressed" Are Financial Markets Right Now?

Updated: September 8, 2022

The St. Louis Fed keeps something called the "Financial Stress Index." In this video, our Global Market Perspective contributor Murray Gunn mentions the 6 times when the Index spiked over the past three decades.

Elliott Wave Analysis Brings Clarity to 10-Year Treasuries

Updated: August 25, 2022

Our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries shows why you can bypass media coverage, and instead roll with an objective method: Elliott wave analysis. See it for yourself.

Central Banks: Big Change Ahead

Updated: August 8, 2022

At a recent press conference, the ECB President Lagarde said, "...we are not offering forward guidance of any kind." That's a huge change in central banks' modus operandi, and it has a lot to do with the strength of the U.S. dollar, says our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn -- watch.

European Bonds: Skip the News. Watch the Charts. Sleep Better.

Updated: July 27, 2022

As the Fed's interest rate decisions dominate the news, let's take another look at Europe. What can Elliott waves show us about the direction of European bonds -- and by proxy, interest rates? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst give you another "European tour." (In focus: Eurex Bund.)

Wipeout! New Update on Our “Green Bond” (ESG) Forecast

Updated: July 11, 2022

As Elliott wave practitioners know, five-waves up (or down) means that a trend turn is nigh. See how this applies to Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG), a sector of the bond market which had been engulfed in euphoria.

How Elliott Wave Guidelines Help You Catch Turns

Updated: June 24, 2022

Bonds -- and interest rates -- have been making headlines for months. But while the focus has mostly been on the U.S. Treasuries, it's worth seeing how the waves are shaping trends overseas, too. Watch Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you how to apply the waves to Eurex Bund.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Anticipating the Rising Trend

Updated: June 15, 2022

Bonds have been no "safe haven" for those who fear the stock market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit its highest level in more than 11 years. Now is the time to turn to the Wave Principle for insights into what to anticipate next.

It's Fed Week. Let's Dive Into 10-Year Notes' Wave Patterns

Updated: June 15, 2022

"A trend in motion stays in motion." The trend in U.S. Treasuries has been down, but there's more to it -- US10Ys have been following a clear Elliott wave pattern. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you how the 10s got here -- and what's likely next.

European Central Bank: A Leader or a Follower?

Updated: May 31, 2022

Now that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has raised interest rates, next the ECB is expected to do the same. But it turns out that the ECB doesn't follow the Fed -- it follows a different "leader" entirely. Watch our Head of Global Research walk you through the chart of Germany Schatz bond yields to explain more.

[Market Trek] "If You Have ANY Money Invested, Watch This"

Updated: May 9, 2022

Do you own stocks? Bonds? Real estate? Then you'll want to see this chart of a 78-year cycle in U.S. Treasuries -- and, by extension, interest rates. Watch this new video by your series host Brian Whitmer where he explains how this 78-year cycle is "probably affecting you already." (Brian's global destination today is Brazil.)

How to Forecast U.S. Treasuries BEFORE the Fed Speaks

Updated: May 9, 2022

On May 4, about 30 minutes before the Fed's interest rate news at 2 PM, our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst Jim Martens posted a video for subscribers. Watch a clip now to see how Elliott wave patterns in the 30-year Treasury Bonds helped Jim forecast the big move in bonds before the news.

Interest Rates: The Warning That Few Wanted to Heed

Updated: May 5, 2022

In 2020, professional bond market observers were saying that yields would stay historically low "forever." However, such an extreme sentiment usually foretells a move in the opposite direction. Learn how Elliott Wave International's bond market analysis helped subscribers to anticipate what was next.

Interest Rates: “Interesting Times, and About to Get More Interesting”

Updated: April 29, 2022

The yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes are bumping up against 3%, and everyone from hedge funds to real estate buyers want to know what's next. Interest rates, after all, affect almost everyone. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through the Elliott wave opportunity brewing in 30-year Treasuries to answer this question.

Market Trek with Brian Whitmer: Just How Far Might Interest Rates Rise?

Updated: April 20, 2022

After a decade of 0% rates, we're in a new territory for many investors. In the bond market, yields have spiked, crashing prices. So, where to next? For answers, watch our new series as the host Brian Whitmer travels the world and tackles market topics big and small. (Today's destination: Brazil.)

UK Long Gilts: Quick Elliott Wave Lesson

Updated: April 20, 2022

U.S. Treasury yields aren't the only ones that have been rising -- so have yields of the UK bonds, for example. And just like here in the U.S., you can find plenty of "fundamental" explanations for the rally -- but watch how a simple Elliott wave pattern warned of these developments as the recent push up was just starting.

Here’s a More Reliable “Recession Indicator” Versus an Inverted Yield Curve

Updated: April 5, 2022

Pundits have recently expressed recession fears due to an inverted yield curve. Yet, here's a "recession indicator" which is more reliable than yield inversions.

"Brutal Bond Bear Market": Will Corporate Bonds Ride It Out?

Updated: April 5, 2022

During previous crises, the Federal Reserve and other central banks would step in with money printing. Now, their ability to do so is compromised as consumer price inflation is raging. Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor touch on where that leaves corporate bonds as he gives you a preview of the new, April issue.

"Worst Drawdown on Record" for Global Bonds: Why the Fed Can't Help

Updated: March 30, 2022

Global bond markets are spiraling. Will the Fed come to the rescue? Head of Global Research Murray Gunn explains not only why they won't, but why they can't. Plus, see an eye-opening 78-year interest rate cycle chart.

Interest Rates: How This 1000% Increase Will Overwhelm… Everything?

Updated: March 28, 2022

Interest rates are on the rise and the consequences will be dramatic for those who must service debt, including the government and companies. This chart shows how fast and far bond yields have already risen.

Big Move In Australian Bonds: How the "Diagonal" Pattern Showed the Trend Beforehand

Updated: March 7, 2022

See a real-time example of how the Elliott Wave "Diagonal" pattern recently anticipated a huge move in the 10-Year Australian Bond.

Here's What Excellent Bond Forecasts Look Like: See Them Here

Updated: February 24, 2022

As U.S. Treasury Bond prices declined in the 18 months from August 2020 through February 2022, our Short Term Update kept subscribers on the right side of the trend. See it for yourself.

Emerging Market Bonds: How to Spot the Next Move

Updated: February 18, 2022

Do Elliott waves work in markets other than the U.S. stock indexes? The answer is a resounding yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through the wave pattern and other technical analysis indicators in EMLC, an ETF that tracks local currency bonds issued by emerging market governments.

Here’s What Message Junk Bonds Are Sending for Stocks

Updated: February 15, 2022

This year, BB-rated bonds, or "junk," had their worst January ever. As you know, this January wasn't kind to stocks, either -- except, junk bonds topped well before the DJIA did. We've seen this before. Watch our Global Markets Strategist show you what this relationship says about the next likely move in both markets.

Why the “60 / 40 Balance” May Be Hazardous to Your Portfolio

Updated: February 14, 2022

Many investors believe that bonds can help protect their portfolios from stock market risk. However, bonds can go into bear markets too, and at the same time as stocks. These two charts are instructive.

Term Premium Showing Signs of Loss of Faith in Fed

Updated: February 3, 2022

"The bond markets contain a wealth of information." That's the opening sentence of this excerpt from Head of Global Research Murray Gunn. Murray's discussion -- and an interesting chart -- show why the bond markets may spell out disaster for the Fed.

Does the Fed Really Determine the Trend of Interest Rates?

Updated: February 3, 2022

Would you like to know how to predict with fair accuracy when the Fed's rates will change? Review these two charts, along with commentary, to gain insights.

Junk Bonds Are Sending a Signal to Stock Investors

Updated: November 24, 2021

Financial history teaches many lessons. Let's look at a notable "divergence" which occurred before the historic 2007 stock market top. Learn why this divergence served as an early-warning sign for stocks so you can apply the lesson currently and in the future.

Australia's 10-Year Bond: How to Spot the Trend

Updated: November 22, 2021

We often get asked if Elliott waves work in markets other than the U.S. stock indexes. The answer is a resounding yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through the wave pattern in 10-year Aussie bonds.

The Fed’s Deflation Dilemma

Updated: November 11, 2021

The U.S. central bank is worried: China's real estate, emerging market debt, the U.S. housing market... Yet, the glaring omission from the list of threats is the Fed itself! Our Head of Global Strategy explains.

Why Some Sectors of “Green” Investing May “Disappoint”

Updated: November 4, 2021

Demand has been running high for so-named "ESG" debt, or "Environmental, Social and Governance." Yet, looking at the equity side of "green" investing, there may be trouble ahead for this ETF. Here's why.

Treasury Bonds: Catching the Trends and Turns Across 15 Months

Updated: October 28, 2021

From August 2020 thru October 2021, Treasury Bond prices moved rapidly in both directions: See how we showed subscribers Elliott Wave analysis that anticipated nearly all the trends and turns along the way.

MBB: Where Are "Mortgage-Backed Securities" Headed Next?

Updated: October 22, 2021

"Mortgage-backed securities" is a phrase that sends shivers down the spine of investors who remember the 2008 financial crisis. MBB is an ETF that tracks these securities -- watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through MBB's 10-year wave pattern to see what's likely next.

What Junk Bonds Convey About Investors’ Mindset

Updated: October 21, 2021

Extreme financial optimism is on display with "stocks, property, cryptocurrencies and digital art." Also consider junk bonds. Here's a chart and commentary.

UK 10-Year Bond Yields: Classic Elliott Wave Lesson

Updated: October 14, 2021

U.S. Treasury yields aren't the only ones that have been rising. Just like here in the U.S., you can find a lot of "fundamental" explanations for the moves in UK bonds. But watch how an Elliott wave pattern warned of these developments as the recent push up was just starting.

Does the Fed Really Know What It’s Doing?

Updated: October 14, 2021

Many investors believe that the Fed holds a great deal of sway over the direction of the economy and even the stock market. Yet, this assumption is being challenged. Indeed, the evidence shows that the Fed is irrelevant to the market's trend. Look at this historic case-in-point.

Why Economic Forecasts So Often Miss the Mark

Updated: October 12, 2021

Economic forecasts are notorious for often being wrong -- and sometimes dramatically so. For example, economists who were polled in 2007 all agreed that economic expansion was ahead. Yet, it was the Great Recession which arrived instead. Here's more on "extreme consensus" among economists.

Fast Move in Treasury Bonds, EWAVES Saw It Coming

Updated: October 1, 2021

The EWAVES analytical engine recently spotted a wave 3 in Treasury Bonds unfolding at three degrees of trend: See the recommendation we made to Flash subscribers and what followed.

Here’s What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks)

Updated: September 30, 2021

Many investors believe that central banks control interest rates. However, there's overwhelming evidence the Fed and others follow, not lead. Whom or what do they follow? See for yourself.

Prepare Now for a Brutal Austerity – Here’s Why

Updated: August 26, 2021

Some people call it "belt tightening." Others say "cutting back." Both phrases sound foreign in this age of borrowing and spending. However, a strict austerity may be just around the corner.

What We’re Watching in Corporate Bonds Could Have “Dramatic Consequences”

Updated: August 19, 2021

Headed into the pandemic, the S&P 500 and corporate bonds rose in lockstep. But then, right before the March 2020 stock market crash, corporate bonds began to diverge -- and stocks followed lower. See what the current position of stocks vs. corporate debt suggests next for both.

There Must Be an Angel (Playing with The Chart, Yeah)

Updated: August 12, 2021

In March 2020, rating agencies quickly downgraded credit rating of bond issuers as the stock market crashed. Now, with stocks back at all-time highs, corporate debt is being upgraded. Are agencies looking ahead -- or merely following the market? Our Head of Global Research explains.

Inflation: Let TIPS Give You a Tip on What’s Next

Updated: August 2, 2021

TIPS, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have an ETF named TIP. It just hit a new 52-week high after rising strongly since the start of the pandemic alongside the rising inflation fears. What can we learn about inflation's trajectory from here by looking at TIP's Elliott wave pattern? Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explains.

See How Elliott Wave Analysis Anticipated Fast Action in the 10 Year Treasury Note

Updated: July 28, 2021

If you're a trader or active investor, check out the June and July forecasts we showed Interest Rate Pro Service subscribers: They were ready for opportunities.

Junk Bond Real Yields Go Negative

Updated: July 7, 2021

In real terms, you earn nothing for investing in high yield. A sign of just how incredible financial markets are at this moment in time comes via the Junk Bonds chart.

Why U.S. Corporate Bankruptcies Could Skyrocket

Updated: July 2, 2021

U.S. corporations have been issuing extensive amounts of debt. Indeed, the level of outstanding corporate bonds is the highest in history. Learn why a wave of corporate bankruptcies may be just ahead.

EWI’s Very Own Paul Bunyan

Updated: June 21, 2021

In May, lumber prices did a 180 and went from biggest recorded rally to biggest recorded crash. In an unexpected blink, the burst of the lumber bubble forced "hoarders" into "sellers" and bulls into bears.

TIPS: Will the Year-Long Rally Continue?

Updated: June 18, 2021

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have been rising -- and so have the inflation worries. Will TIPS keep rising, though? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service walk you through the Elliott wave pattern in TIP, a TIPS exchanged-traded fund, for clear, one-of-a-kind answers.

Here’s a Simple Way to Know If the Fed Will Raise Rates

Updated: June 17, 2021

There is a simple truth that continues to elude the mainstream economists. Here it is: The Fed follows the bond market. So, there is no need to hang on Jerome Powell's every word. All you need to do is... well, here's our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, with the full explanation -- and a handy chart.

Why Are We Paying These Guys?

Updated: June 17, 2021

Dave Allman, our very own wave counting savant and resident skeptic, dissects today’s Fed update. Most pundits think the Fed sets policy, but maybe we should challenge that assumption.

Chart a market, any market...

Updated: May 5, 2021

You can chart the price of any market. But will it show an actionable Elliott wave pattern? If it's a liquid enough market, yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through an example using UK 10-Year Bond yields.

ESG Bonds: Why You Should Expect Exposure of “Greenwashing” to Intensify

Updated: May 4, 2021

Regulators are investigating suspicions of "funny business" associated with so-called "green" and "social" bonds. Will more stories of exploitation regarding this type of debt surface? Here's what our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has to say.

Inflation: Is It FINALLY Here?

Updated: April 23, 2021

The Fed's infamous quantitative easing didn't lead to inflation, let alone hyperinflation. What about now, after the COVID-19 pandemic relief efforts have cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $6,000,000,000,000? (Is that enough zeros for "trillion"?) Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you what the bond market suggests next.

Will Ultra-Conservative “Savers” Get the Last Laugh?

Updated: April 20, 2021

Many people fear losing money in risk assets, so they choose interest-bearing cash equivalents. Yet, they've been punished by exceptionally low rates. Financial risk-takers snicker at the ultra-conservative. But -- who will get the last laugh?

This Is How the Wealth Gap Closes

Updated: April 7, 2021

Leverage and failure to cut losses -- the two reasons at the core of every financial disaster in history. Take a look at this multi-billion dollar hedge fund that recently blew up because of these reasons.

Fibonacci Ratio in 10 Year Australian Bonds? Yes.

Updated: April 6, 2021

Readers often ask us if Elliott waves work in less-talked-about markets. The short answer is, yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through a picture-perfect wave structure that recently unfolded in 10-year Australian bonds.

The Easiest Money in History

Updated: April 1, 2021

Junk bond investors are lining up to lend money to companies. After all, who doesn't want to make north of 4% in the era of record-low interest rates? Before you join the party, though, see this eye-opening chart...

10-Year Yields' Soar to Pre-Pandemic Levels: "Belated Overreaction" or Right on Schedule?

Updated: March 26, 2021

Back in December, few analysts expected that Treasury Note yields would return to pre-covid levels. Now see the chart and forecast that did anticipate the trend.

Germany’s Bonds: How to Spot Rising Yields Without Reading the News

Updated: March 5, 2021

U.S. Treasury yields aren't the only ones that have been rising. Just like here in the U.S., you can find a lot of "fundamental" explanations for the moves in German bonds. But watch how an Elliott wave pattern warned of these developments as they were just starting.

"There’s no tellin’ where the money went..."

Updated: March 4, 2021

If you apply for a loan to buy a car or a house, and the bank manager sees that your existing debt is 3 times your annual income... do you think you're getting that loan? Well, says our Head of Global Research, "Global debt is now 3.5 times our income." Read Murray Gunn's thoughts on what this implies.

U.S. Treasury Yields: “Acceleration of the Rise in Rates”

Updated: March 2, 2021

The 39- year bull market in the U.S. Treasury long bond, which likely ended in March 2020, was left further behind as yields jumped significantly during the past several trading days. See what helped Elliott Wave International's subscribers stay ahead of these moves in the U.S. Treasury long bond.

Junk Bonds (JNK): Time to Change Your Thinking?

Updated: March 1, 2021

Over the past year, the junk bond ETF JNK has consistently moved "up and to the right." Yet, the momentum signature shows that JNK may see some rough waters ahead. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor give you another important update to the story that he began a few months ago.

Don’t look now, but even the Fed’s wires are sparking!

Updated: February 25, 2021

"The large sell-off in U.S. Treasury bond futures yesterday at the U.S. morning open might have had something to do with a snafu in the plumbing of the Federal Reserve system," writes our Head of Global Research. See why he thinks this is "of great interest."

Owners and Borrowers Head for the Hills

Updated: February 12, 2021

Right now, today, are stocks, bonds and real estate in a "buyers' market" or "sellers' market"? The answer may have profound implications for your portfolio. Read this new essay by our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, to understand why -- and to get some well-researched answers.

Corporate Debt: A Trend to Watch in 2021

Updated: January 22, 2021

LQD is a well-known investment-grade corporate bond ETF. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you a clear Elliott wave pattern starting to emerge in this market -- and explain what this likely means for corporate debt next.

Here's What Places Global Bond Buyers at "High Risk"

Updated: January 21, 2021

Make no mistake: The bond market can be just as risky as the stock market. Yet, many global participants in the credit markets are complacent. Now is the time to learn about the "walking dead" or "zombie" firms.

Alert: Here’s What a Key “Risk Gauge” Reveals

Updated: December 22, 2020

Most investors are "throwing caution to the wind" when it comes to risk-assets. Yet, one group of investors is going against the tide. Discover their identity and learn exactly what they're doing now.

Junk Bonds (JNK): So Far, So Good

Updated: December 4, 2020

"In a bull market, they're called 'investment-grade bonds. In a bear market, they are called 'junk bonds." But regardless of how you label them, the story in the junk bond ETF JNK tells a consistent story. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor give you an important update to the story that he began back in October.

Bond Market: “When Investors Should Worry”

Updated: November 12, 2020

In early 2020, many bond investors were worried about default risk. Recently, however, those worries have lessened considerably. What does this suggest? Here's a chart and commentary.

Big Moves, Both Directions in November: See What We Said about 10-Year Treasuries

Updated: November 11, 2020

Elliott Wave analysis is at its best in a volatile market: So far in November, our Pro Services intraday forecasts showed subscribers the opportunities along the way.

A Global “Debt Mountain”: Beware of This “New Peak”

Updated: November 10, 2020

Global debt seems to be a subject that's far removed from most people's daily lives. However, the Great Recession revealed otherwise. Now, learn why another global financial crisis may be just around the corner.

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond

Updated: October 29, 2020

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low. Bond market observers were discussing “fresh reasons to stay record bullish.” Yet, Elliott wave analysis was sending a different message. Let’s review.

German 5-Year Bonds: “Simple” Elliott, Clear Results

Updated: October 27, 2020

You may know that all Elliott wave patterns fall into two categories: impulses and corrections. On a chart, impulses look strong and directional; corrections are choppy and overlapping. See our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst apply this (and other) knowledge to forecast what's next for Germany's bond yields.

JNK: What's Next for "Junk"

Updated: October 23, 2020

High-yield -- a.k.a. junk -- bonds are challenging even when the economy is doing well, let alone in the middle of a pandemic. Our Interest Rates Pro Service editor looks at JNK, an ETF that tracks this markets, to see what Elliott waves show next.

"Rates Down, Stocks Up"? Myth … <em>Busted</em>!

Updated: October 6, 2020

A prominent global financial publication recently said that "equity investors should raise a glass to low rates." Of course, the presumption behind that view is that low rates means higher stock market prices. But, does the evidence show this to be the case? Here's what investors need to know.

Corporate Bonds: Market Leads, Fed Follows

Updated: September 25, 2020

Back in March, in the thick of the sell-off, the Fed pledged to buy corporate bonds, as a "last-resort" measure. Investment-grade debt rallied. But Elliott waves were one step ahead. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain using LQD, a corporate bond ETF.

This Price Pattern in German Bonds Is Worth Noting

Updated: September 25, 2020

You've heard that, "When stocks go up, bonds go down -- and vice versa." That's debatable, but see how a simple Elliott wave pattern already shows you what's likely next for Germany's government debt. Our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst explains.

Junk Bond Yields vs. Small Business Loans: Main Street and Wall Street Diverge

Updated: August 28, 2020

Two major financial trends have diverged for the first time in twenty-plus years. Investors believe the Fed can avoid a credit crunch, but bankers … not so much. See the chart for yourself.

Bond Market's (Lack of) Volatility: "Calm Before the Craze"

Updated: August 27, 2020

The "lower and lower" interest-rate trend has been underway for 39 years! It's no surprise, then, that many bond market observers expect this trend to continue literally "forever." Take a look at this "record low" on the chart.

This Pattern Warns You Before Prices Spike

Updated: August 20, 2020

Elliott wave triangles are high-confidence chart patterns that almost always precede a "thrust" in prices. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service expert explain more using Bunds, Germany's equivalent of the U.S. Treasury Bond.

Finding Clarity in Bond Markets with Elliott Waves

Updated: July 31, 2020

EMLC is a fairly exotic market instrument reflecting the values of… other fairly exotic market instruments. It's an ETF that tracks bonds issued by emerging market governments. Can a market like that reflect accurate Elliott wave patterns? Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain.

“Junk” Is Hot Again – Despite Warning Signs

Updated: July 30, 2020

Global investors have been clamoring for junk bonds. As our July Global Market Perspective notes: "Demand for junk is so high that analysts are lamenting a 'shortage of high-yield assets for funds to buy.' All the while, financial dangers lurk. Here are the details.

Germany's Long Bond: See How Elliott Waves Spotted the Rally

Updated: July 17, 2020

The Bund is Germany's equivalent of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond -- which is to say, an important market…albeit a slightly exotic one. Do Elliott waves work in a market like that? You be the judge.

Here’s Why You Can Forecast Markets Just by Looking at Chart Patterns

Updated: July 14, 2020

You’ve probably noticed that the small branches of a tree look similar to the big ones. Nature is replete with fractals, such as rivers and their tributaries, blood vessels and so on. The price charts of financial markets are also fractals. Here’s what this means for investors and traders…

Volatility Looks to Be on Its Way Back: Here's Why

Updated: June 18, 2020

When you compare today's volatility measures in the bond market with previous volatile periods, a clear picture emerges. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain more using the MOVE index and the more familiar VIX, "the fear index."

U.S. Long Bond: Let’s Review the “Upward Point of Exhaustion”

Updated: June 9, 2020

In early March, a prominent sentiment indicator registered 98% bulls toward U.S. 30-year Treasuries. At the same time, historic moves were taking place in the U.S. long bond. Here’s a review of what’s taken place since.

Inflation or Deflation? For Answers, Look to TIPS

Updated: May 27, 2020

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are bonds tied to measures of inflation, like the CPI. The higher the inflation, the better the returns. But see how Elliott wave patterns in TIP (an ETF) give a good idea if the market is still expecting inflation ahead. Log in -- or sign up for FREE to watch now.

Fixed Income ETFs: "The Story of Deterioration"

Updated: April 30, 2020

Bond Exchange-Traded Funds have been telling an important story since well before the pandemic. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor walk you through the performance of several key sector ETFs and explain the implications.

Do Elliott Waves Show Up in All Markets?

Updated: April 21, 2020

We often hear this question from new subscribers. The short answer is -- yes, in all liquid ones, where mass psychology is present. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst walk you through the recent rally in the UK Gilts, Britain's equivalent of U.S. Treasuries.

To Navigate Markets in 2020, You Need Different Tools

Updated: April 14, 2020

For investors, the "paradigm shift" has arrived. Watch our Global Markets Strategist explain why Elliott waves are uniquely suited to help you navigate this challenging environment. (Focus: the "obscure" CoCo bonds.)

A Credit Market Gets Massacred: 3-2-1 POP! Goes the CoCo

Updated: April 6, 2020

As 2020 began, the convertible bonds called CoCos were one of the best-performing fixed-income assets. Yet we warned subscribers that this asset was about to "collapse." Now see the jaw-dropping chart that shows what followed.

How We Kept Subscribers Ahead of Wild Treasury Note Action in February and March

Updated: March 27, 2020

The past seven weeks saw an epic rise in the price of 10-year Treasury Notes: Yet it was also an epic opportunity for traders and active investors. See exactly what Interest Rate Pro Services subscribers saw to stay ahead of the trend.

U.S. Treasuries: Letting the Waves Flow

Updated: March 17, 2020

The enormous rally in the U.S. Treasuries -- and the corresponding record decline in bond yields, which prompted the now second Fed "emergency" rate cut -- had a warning. In mid-February, Elliott wave patterns in the charts of 30-year bonds turned bullish (and stayed bullish). Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you how it unfolded.

Why the Next Debt Crisis Will (Also) Be Historically Dire

Updated: March 3, 2020

EWI’s Head of Global Research explains why you should begin taking steps to brace yourself for a potential financial “storm of biblical proportions.”

Junk Bonds: 2 “Golden” Junctures

Updated: February 13, 2020

The “golden ratio” is often found in the chart patterns of financial markets and often marks a key juncture. EWI’s Head of Global Research pinpoints not only one, but two “golden ratio” junctures in this chart.

What Elliott Waves Show You About Bond ETFs Right Now

Updated: February 5, 2020

Along with stock ETFs, bond ETFs are another popular investment tool. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain 5 key points about bond ETFs -- and show you what the clear Elliott wave picture in BND, a Vanguard ETF, suggest for bonds next.

German Bunds: A Foreign Market, a Familiar Pattern

Updated: January 17, 2020

Our fans often ask, "Can I apply Elliott waves to... [fill in the market name]?" The answer is always -- yes! Use them in any freely traded, liquid market. For example, watch our Interest Rates Pro Service contributor walk you through his recent call in Bunds, Germany's equivalent of the U.S. Treasury Bonds.

See the Forecasts Which Predicted 12 Months of Action in Treasuries

Updated: January 15, 2020

This Chart of the Day will show you something ... different: A year's worth of the move-by-move analysis we delivered to Interest Rate Pro Services subscribers. Yes, there really is that much to show.

2 MORE Signs of an Epic Financial Complacency

Updated: December 27, 2019

As the longest bull market in history persists, many investors are complacent about stocks and other risk assets. Ironically, volatility has a way of erupting just when investors increase their bullish bets. This chart is enlightening.

European Markets: "Exactly what we would expect…"

Updated: December 13, 2019

The year is wrapping up, so let's take a fly-over view of Europe. Watch as our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor shows you some eye-opening statistics -- and puts it in the all-important Elliott wave perspective.

What Does Government "Stimulus" Tell You? The Past and Present in Japan Has the Answer

Updated: December 10, 2019

Governments use "fiscal stimulus" to kick start a weak economy … right? That's what textbooks say, but, real-world experience is otherwise. In truth, government "stimulus" is a lagging response to a bear market that has already turned around. See EWI's Mark Galasiewski explain the past and present in Japan as a case-in-point, with the opportunity it suggests.

How to Apply Charles Dow's "Confirmation" Theory to Bonds

Updated: November 22, 2019

In a nutshell, Charles Dow's famous theory says that the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average must go up or down together -- to "confirm" a bull or bear market. But can you apply this theory to markets like bonds? Yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain how.

Fibonacci Numbers and Current Picture in U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: November 21, 2019

Long- and short-term market charts are often filled with Fibonacci relationships. Learn how this applies to the current price pattern of U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds. These two charts are instructive...

How to Add "Certainty" to Your Elliott Wave Forecasts

Updated: October 16, 2019

All market forecasting is… well, forecasting. Meaning, there are no guarantees. Elliott wave analysis is not fool-proof, either. Still, see if this tip from our Head of Global Research helps you add confidence to your wave counts.

Can U.S. Financial Authorities Prevent a Bear Market?

Updated: October 15, 2019

The widespread notion persists that central banks hold a large sway over financial markets. No less than the chief economist of a major global bank just expressed that view. EWI's analysts argue otherwise. Here's why it's unwise to view the Fed or other financial authorities as a "safety net" for stock investors...

How Bonds Help You to Forecast Stock Market Volatility

Updated: October 4, 2019

Stocks and bonds go together like milk and cookies: When stocks rally, bonds fall -- and vice versa. At least, that's what you often hear in the news. The reality is a bit more complex. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you important details about the stocks-bonds correlation -- and also, how to forecast the stock market by looking at bonds.

Spotting a "Tired" Look in the U.S. Long Bond

Updated: September 17, 2019

Many observers of the U.S. government bond market expected "concerns about the global economy" to continue to "fuel" a persistent rally. Those economic worries are still making headlines, but something has happened with the rally in 30-year Treasuries. Take a look at these two charts...

Europe's Bonds: Poster Child for "Irrational Herding"

Updated: September 5, 2019

It's hard to believe but investors today still herd just like they did a 100 or 300 years ago. Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor illustrate this point by showing you recent activity in the European bond markets.

30-Year Treasuries: "3rd of a 3rd" Vs. Now

Updated: September 4, 2019

The price action of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds had been on a tear in mid-summer -- rising nearly every day. Now, a shift has taken place. Get our insights as you take a look at this chart...

How to Tell a Market's Trend at a Glance

Updated: August 28, 2019

Most methods of technical analysis, including Elliott waves, are visual. To gauge the trend, you LOOK at prices and how they relate to your chosen indicators. But there is an even simpler way. Watch the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service show you how. (Bonus: You'll also get our latest on the "inverted yield curve," the boogeyman you hear so much about in the news lately.)

Watch: Bond Yields Also Follow Elliott Waves

Updated: August 6, 2019

On these pages, we've shown before that the Fed, when deciding on the direction of the rates, follows the yields in the bond market. But what do yields follow? You got it: Elliott wave patterns. Watch as the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service explains more.

The Fed: Will They, or Will They Not?

Updated: July 30, 2019

Is there a more definitive way to forecast what the Fed might do about interest rates than looking at "fundamentals"? We believe, there is. This is the price of the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond...

Trading Bonds: Watch Futures (price) or Yields?

Updated: July 17, 2019

When it comes to the bond market, Jordan Kotick is a "pro's pro" -- a former bond trader, economist and Head of Cross Asset Strategy. He says, "Watch Price or Yields?" is a question he hears repeatedly. Watch and listen to his answer to that question.

Worried About the Fed? Don’t Be -- Here’s Why

Updated: July 10, 2019

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

U.S. Treasuries: “Most Crowded Trade.” Too Crowded?

Updated: June 20, 2019

Investors have been expressing extreme enthusiasm for bonds. Is a turning point nigh? Chart price patterns are a useful aide in figuring out the answer...

Who -- or What -- Is LEADING the Fed?

Updated: June 19, 2019

“What will the Fed do?” That is the wrong question – the real issue is, who (or what) the Fed will follow. Watch this Chart of the Day to see the answer for yourself.

The Before and After of the Big Move in 10-year Treasury Notes

Updated: May 24, 2019

Who was prepared for the big bullish move in Treasury Notes on May 22-23 ... before it happened? See the answer for yourself onscreen right now, in Chart of the Day.

April Lows, May Highs in Treasuries: What's Next?

Updated: May 23, 2019

Dana Weeks talks to EWI Analyst Jordan Kotick about the April low in Treasuries, how to follow the yield curve, and exactly which Treasury instrument he's got his eye on now.

The Junk Bond Market's Message is Loud and Clear

Updated: May 16, 2019

Investor sentiment in the junk-bond market usually correlates with stock market sentiment – and major reversals in both. This chart and commentary provides you with insights.

Volatility: "Remember me?"

Updated: April 18, 2019

In this April Financial Forecast excerpt video, EWI's Robert Folsom shows you a compelling picture of today's complacency among bond market investors. Watch it, and draw your own conclusions.

Will Global Rate Shifts Come to the Treasury Market?

Updated: April 4, 2019

In his interview with Dana Weeks, Jordan Kotick looks to major bond market trends abroad for what may be next in the U.S. Treasuries market.

Your "Single Most Reliable Indicator" for Market Turns

Updated: April 2, 2019

This indicator helps to keep you ahead of turns in stocks, bonds, gold, oil and other financial markets. Learn about it, and see two bond charts which provide a historic example of how this "reliable" signal works...

Fed Re-Examines Its Own Ability to Control Inflation: What Next?

Updated: April 1, 2019

Why does the Fed keep missing its inflation "target"? Here's a clue: $10 Trillion in debt outstanding. See what this looks like, in Chart of the Day.

"Inverted Yield Curve" -- What It Is, Why It Matters

Updated: March 25, 2019

Headlines scream about the inverted yield curve. Yet, in his chart-packed explanation, EWI’s Jordan Kotick gives you a context you won’t find elsewhere.

Jordan Kotick on the Fed, Monetary Policy, and “Data Dependent”

Updated: March 20, 2019

Dana Weeks speaks with Jordan Kotick on the real relevance of all the headlines about the Federal Reserve, and the larger Treasuries market.

The Market Wasn't Surprised by What the Fed Didn't Do

Updated: March 20, 2019

Who (or what) drives interest rates? Most investors, the financial media and Wall Street assume "the Fed does." Now see the crystal-clear facts and evidence that show otherwise.

"Outright Insanity" on Display in the Global Bond Market

Updated: March 7, 2019

Our Global Market Perspective has noted that "we've seen some bizarre behavior among bond market participants in recent years, but the current thirst to buy [these] debt instruments wins the prize." Find out what the Global Market Perspective is talking about as you look at this revealing chart...

Busted Myth: “Fed Controls Economy” and “Manipulates Markets”

Updated: February 12, 2019

There's a widespread belief that the Fed holds the levers which guide the economy and maneuvers markets. But the evidence shows that this is simply not the case. These two charts speak for themselves...

This Investment Straddles "A $1 Trillion Powder Keg"

Updated: February 1, 2019

Did you know that Enron's bonds enjoyed an "investment grade" rating just four days before it went bankrupt? Unfortunately true. And, today, other companies and their bonds sit atop "a $1 trillion powder keg." Learn why...

Bond Market Volatility: Has the Psychology Shifted?

Updated: January 14, 2019

EWI's Interest Rate analyst Jordan Kotick shows the "Financial Stress Index," and explains the sudden burst of volatility in the Treasuries market.

Rate Spikes and Crises: Here We Go Again

Updated: January 7, 2019

Interest rates make a lot of headlines these days. We find important correlations between the rates and the overall health of the stock market and economy, too. See the correlations in this chart pulled directly from our brand new January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. You won't find it anywhere else.

In 2018, Why Did Bonds AND Stocks Fall... TOGETHER?

Updated: December 28, 2018

The chart you're about to see shows you an incredible fact: 90% of 70 asset classes fell in 2018, the most since 1901 (data: Deutsche Bank).

Want to Know the Fed’s Next Move? Pay Attention to This Signal

Updated: December 28, 2018

Many might think that the “reality” in question is that “higher interest rates are bad for the stock market.” But that’s not what this story is about. There is a different reality that Fed has continued to ignore for at least two decades.

The Inverted Yield Curve: What It Is and Why It Matters

Updated: December 20, 2018

Treasury yields may soon turn "not normal," otherwise known as the inverted yield curve. This clear and compelling interview with EWI's Jordan Kotick shows you why it really does matter.

The Fed's "Financial Frailty" Raises This Important Question

Updated: December 18, 2018

Do you have faith in the Fed? If so, a look at the central bank's portfolio might prompt second thoughts. Find out why, plus take a look at two charts which show you who is really in charge of the trend in interest rates.

Stocks’ Seasonal Tendencies: Why Context is Key

Updated: November 28, 2018

"Sell in May and go away." "Santa Claus rally." These are just two sayings that have to do with the stock market's seasonal tendencies. But, investors need to know more. Here are insights that EWI recently offered to subscribers...

Look at This Fast, Dramatic Change in Investors’ Mindset

Updated: November 26, 2018

The yield spread between junk and investment-grade bonds can provide a clue about what's ahead for risk-assets as a whole. Learn why -- plus, take a look at a chart which reveals the mindset of investors.

Investors Can Relax About Rising Interest Rates – Here’s Why

Updated: November 14, 2018

Can interest rates rise to the point that the stock market falls? Does it even matter? See our charts for fact-based answers.

The Fed: Is There Such a Thing as a "Neutral" Rate Policy?

Updated: November 5, 2018

Our analyst Murray Gunn says "The Fed doesn’t control the economy." Now see his evidence -- namely, a 40-plus year chart of GDP and the Fed Funds rate.

Today's Headline: “Plunge in Bond Prices”

Updated: October 3, 2018

The coming round of news stories will say that "30-year Treasury Bond prices hit new low!" Yet you can see how Elliott wave analysis anticipated that new low long before it became a reality.

Rising Bond Yields Didn’t “Sting” Our Subscribers

Updated: September 26, 2018

The biggest turn in decades arrived in Treasury Bonds and Notes in mid-2016. A clear Elliott Wave Pattern told the real story about what was just ahead. See the chart and quotes for yourself in Chart of the Day.

Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally?

Updated: September 25, 2018

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

Bonds, Price, Yields: Time to “Shop for rates”?

Updated: September 24, 2018

Yields are on the move. That seems like recent news, yet check out the forecast from two-plus years ago that anticipated today’s interest rate headlines.

The Anatomy of a Credit Crunch

Updated: September 11, 2018

A "credit crisis" doesn't start everyplace at once -- it usually begins in a single country. See for yourself how financial markets in Turkey are imploding with stunning speed.

Should You Worry About the Flattening Yield Curve?

Updated: September 5, 2018

Do a search of "flattening yield curve," and you’re likely to see many results about how this villain threatens the stock market. How worried should you be?

Chicago's Three-Ring-Circus of Over Optimism

Updated: August 30, 2018

Chicago's pension funds have a $28 BILLION shortfall. Their "solution" includes investing borrowed money in stocks. See this three-ring circus of over-optimism for yourself.

Junk Bonds: No One Expects Volatility… Here’s Why YOU Should

Updated: August 14, 2018

Ironically, financial markets are most risky when they appear to be the least so. With that in mind, let's sift through some "junk," with the aid of this chart.

Dreaming of a “Comfortable Retirement” on a Public Pension?

Updated: August 7, 2018

Many employees of state and local governments in the U.S. are expecting a financially "comfortable" retirement. But, a big shock likely awaits. Here's a sobering perspective.

What the Bond Market Is Whispering About the Next "Big Event"

Updated: July 27, 2018

Keep an eye on the bond market: It's a gauge of social mood swings. If the swing is big enough, the seismic change that follows affects everyone.

The Big Picture and Short Story in Treasuries, Part II

Updated: May 25, 2018

In September 2017, were you ready for the 8-month-long fall in Treasury Notes? Are you ready now for another trend reversal? See this chart...

How the Danger of Debt Looms Large

Updated: May 8, 2018

High-debt levels combined with rising rates means increasing financial pain for borrowers. The eventual result is an all-out credit collapse.See a chart that suggests a debt implosion may be closer than many observers realize.

Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?

Updated: April 26, 2018

The financial press has recently been saying that rising bond yields have been creating turmoil for the stock market. But, is there a "cause and effect" relationship between bond yields and the stock market? Check out this research.

The Big Picture -- and the Short Story -- in Treasury Bonds

Updated: April 25, 2018

Recent headlines scream 'Treasury yields 3 percent!!' Now see the chart and forecast showing that this trend has been unfolding for some time.

Why Most Investors Stay Stuck One Step Behind the Market

Updated: April 20, 2018

"Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis" was such a hot topic 10 years ago, after the stock market crash, that it now has its own Wikipedia page. Many mistakes have been corrected since then. But one flaw remains.

Are Pension Funds Embracing Too Much Risk?

Updated: March 8, 2018

Alarming: This huge pension fund loses 5% of its assets in just 11 trading days. Is the worst yet to arrive? According to EWI's analysis, ALL investors need to learn how to get "financially safe."

Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions?

Updated: February 28, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.

U.S. Treasury Bonds: A Sentiment Reversal From Mid-December

Updated: February 23, 2018

Since the peak in September 2017, T-Bond futures prices have recently fallen hard -- now see the unfolding (and telling) reversal in sentiment among two trader groups.

Why These "Safety-Minded" Investors Are Probably in for a Shock

Updated: February 16, 2018

If you think bonds are a "safe" alternative to stocks, think again. History shows that bonds can go through wild swings like stocks. Look at these two charts

Find Out Who Leads the Way on Interest Rates (…It's NOT the Fed)

Updated: January 29, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.

Why to Beware of "Bondmaggedon"

Updated: January 12, 2018

See what a generational change in trend looks like -- plus a preview of what may be next in Treasury yields.

Look Who's Pressing Bullish Bets on U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: December 13, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Junk Kisses the Bull Market Goodbye

Updated: December 13, 2017

A classic pattern signals a trend reversal in high-yield debt: See the clear warning for yourself.

Credit Default Swaps: “Where Are They Now?”

Updated: December 4, 2017

If you remember, credit default swaps were at the heart of the financial crisis, so doing a bit of a “Where are they now?” investigation today is more than relevant.

Market Myth #4: Interest Rates Drive Stock Prices

Updated: November 21, 2017

Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.

Are All Bonds EQUALLY Low Risk?

Updated: November 21, 2017

The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.

Big Default, Small Default: Tests of Confidence in the Global Debt Market

Updated: November 20, 2017

What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now

US Treasury Bonds Are Flashing Red Alert Again

Updated: November 9, 2017

Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet?

Updated: October 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...

What Does "Desperate Complacency" Look Like? See For Yourself...

Updated: September 14, 2017

The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.

Believe Your Own Eyes: Central Banks FOLLOW the Market

Updated: September 14, 2017

The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.

Why Speculators Should Keep a Close Eye on the Bond Market

Updated: September 8, 2017

Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.

Europe: How Bond Investors Get Wiped Out

Updated: August 25, 2017

Wipe out! That's what can happen when investors reach for yield in high-risk debt instruments. See a stunning European example.

President Trump and ... the Yield Curve?

Updated: August 25, 2017

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Jackson (W)Hole Lotta Hype

Updated: August 24, 2017

This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...

Why the Bond Market Should Be Watching Tesla

Updated: August 22, 2017

Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...

Bank of Canada Hike: Surprised? You shouldn't be.

Updated: July 13, 2017

Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.

This is Why Municipal Bonds Are No "Day at the Beach"

Updated: July 5, 2017

Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.

Fed Week: One and Done?

Updated: June 13, 2017

Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.

Municipal Bonds: Still "on Track for a Train Wreck"

Updated: June 12, 2017

The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.

Why Renewed Danger Lurks in the U.S. Leveraged Loan Market

Updated: June 7, 2017

In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.

Higher Interest Rates: "Good" for the U.S. Dollar?

Updated: June 6, 2017

Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.

Debt, Politics, and Russia: A "Spike" Dead Ahead?

Updated: May 17, 2017

Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.

Bonds: What Hedge Funds' "Record Reversal" Tells You

Updated: May 17, 2017

Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.

Recall This Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened

Updated: April 25, 2017

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Bond Traders And Sentiment Reversal: Here's What It Looks Like

Updated: March 23, 2017

Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.

Why the Fed's Rate Hike Means Nothing to the Stock Market

Updated: March 17, 2017

The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.

What Could Follow the End of the 70-Year Rate Cycle?

Updated: February 22, 2017

Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.

Why You Should Be Cautious About Credit Ratings

Updated: January 17, 2017

If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

Updated: January 9, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Do Interest Rates Follow the Federal Reserve Or Do Interest Rates Lead and the Fed Follows?

Updated: October 28, 2015

What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.

Does the Federal Reserve Drive the Stock Market Trend?

Updated: February 25, 2015

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.