Updated: October 14, 2021Many investors believe that the Fed holds a great deal of sway over the direction of the economy and even the stock market. Yet, this assumption is being challenged. Indeed, the evidence shows that the Fed is irrelevant to the market's trend. Look at this historic case-in-point.
Updated: October 12, 2021Economic forecasts are notorious for often being wrong -- and sometimes dramatically so. For example, economists who were polled in 2007 all agreed that economic expansion was ahead. Yet, it was the Great Recession which arrived instead. Here's more on "extreme consensus" among economists.
Updated: October 5, 2021House hunters want to buy at a favorable price. Yet, a recent headline says, "home prices have risen 100 times faster than usual." Here's an indicator that suggests a big change may be just around the neighborhood corner.
Updated: September 15, 2021"History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes," goes a saying often contributed to Mark Twain. In our 40+ years in the business, we've seen a lot of these "rhymes" -- watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor show you what the recent price action in S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600 reminds him of.
Updated: August 31, 2021Prices of many consumer items tend to be stable most of the time. But when a consumer item becomes an investment item, watch out! See how this is related to the housing market...
Updated: August 26, 2021Some people call it "belt tightening." Others say "cutting back." Both phrases sound foreign in this age of borrowing and spending. However, a strict austerity may be just around the corner.
Updated: August 10, 2021After a dramatic rise, the price of lumber has plummeted. If you're a homeowner, or anticipate buying or selling a house, here's an insight that you need to know.
Updated: July 29, 2021Investors know that financial bubbles have occurred in the past and will likely develop again in the future. But their "bubble" attitudes are almost always different in the present. Learn how this applies to the 2021 U.S. housing market.
Updated: July 22, 2021Many investors believe that global stock markets will benefit from the current economic "boom." That seems to make sense -- however, you may want to review what financial history shows.
Updated: July 16, 2021While stocks in places like India have powered higher lately, other emerging markets have sold off. Watch our Asian-Pacific expert walk you through the wave pattern in iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM for some objective answers rooted in market psychology.
Updated: July 2, 2021U.S. corporations have been issuing extensive amounts of debt. Indeed, the level of outstanding corporate bonds is the highest in history. Learn why a wave of corporate bankruptcies may be just ahead.
Updated: June 25, 2021Sometimes, a personal anecdote helps bring into focus a problem we all intuitively understand. Watch our "resident skeptic" Dave Allman take a stroll through his neighborhood for an unvarnished look at the current real estate trends.
Updated: June 17, 2021There is a simple truth that continues to elude the mainstream economists. Here it is: The Fed follows the bond market. So, there is no need to hang on Jerome Powell's every word. All you need to do is... well, here's our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, with the full explanation -- and a handy chart.
Updated: June 9, 2021If you are old enough to remember the booming real estate market back in 2006, you also remember that it was the last year of the U.S. housing bubble. The following year, social mood took a hard dive, the stock market topped and a set of dominoes around the world quickly ushered in a global financial crisis, the biggest one wince the Great Depression. But what if "it's different this time?" Our Head of Global Research shares his thoughts in the new essay.
Updated: June 8, 2021Should investors wait for the economic headlines to turn highly negative before selling stocks? Learn why such a strategy would likely be unwise.
Updated: June 3, 2021There's a telltale-sign that the hot housing market may be headed for a cool down. Learn why -- plus find out why studying the stock market's trend will help you gauge the housing market as well
Updated: June 3, 2021The chart you're about to see shows the annual percentage change in "sticky" U.S. consumer prices. "Sticky" -- because these are goods and services that the data scientists in the Federal Reserve's statistics office deem to have infrequent changes in their prices. These prices have been rising, too -- along with prices of just about everything else. And that puts the Fed itself in a very sticky situation, explains our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn.
Updated: May 24, 2021Stocks, Bitcoin, commodities, bonds... right now, Elliott waves are painting a clear picture for all the key markets you hear about in the news. Watch our Head of Global Strategy walk you through a series of charts to give you a one-of-a-kind &"view from 30,000 feet."
Updated: May 18, 2021Some financial market observers have attributed recent market sell-offs to inflation worries. However, investors who closely follow the news may be scratching their heads as to that "cause and effect" reasoning. Here's why.
Updated: May 14, 2021"As some major economies emerge from the economic lockdowns, there are increasing reports of shortages: computer chips, food commodities, even chlorine. The biggest shortage, though, may be in common sense," explains our Head of Global Research in a new essay. (Commodities in focus.)
Updated: May 11, 2021"In January, there were more real-estate agents than homes for sale in the U.S.," according to the Wall Street Journal. Indeed, the climb in the number of real-estate agents traces out as an Elliott wave pattern on a chart. Take a look. Plus -- learn why the action of the stock market is relevant to the housing market.
Updated: April 13, 2021It's been the story of the past 20 years at least. With economies like China (and others such as India) fully embracing the global economy, all of a sudden (well, millennially speaking) the planet's global labor capacity surged and that led to a huge downward pressure on labor costs. China became the world's factory and kept its export prices low, leading to the oft-used soundbite that China has been "exporting deflation." Now, though, that might be changing.
Updated: April 7, 2021Leverage and failure to cut losses -- the two reasons at the core of every financial disaster in history. Take a look at this multi-billion dollar hedge fund that recently blew up because of these reasons.
Updated: March 30, 2021"...in January, there were more real estate agents in the U.S. than houses for sale," says our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn. It's not the first time something similar has happened -- discover a time when a "third of Miami residents were real estate agents," and what we can learn from it.
Updated: March 23, 2021Inflation worries seem to be on everyone's mind -- maybe yours, too. Yet, you also hear experts say that any inflationary upticks are only temporary. Who's right? "How about... both" opinions, explains our Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn.
Updated: March 9, 2021Financial commentators are all abuzz about the prospects for inflation. After all, commodity prices have risen substantially during the past several months, and that trend might continue for a time. However, the next big monetary event will likely be just the opposite from what most observers expect.
Updated: March 4, 2021If you apply for a loan to buy a car or a house, and the bank manager sees that your existing debt is 3 times your annual income... do you think you're getting that loan? Well, says our Head of Global Research, "Global debt is now 3.5 times our income." Read Murray Gunn's thoughts on what this implies.
Updated: February 9, 2021As we wrap up "one of the strangest months in market history," says our Global Market Strategist in this new video, it's time to look ahead. Watch Brian Whitmer show you several highlights from his latest research report.
Updated: February 4, 2021Many people yawn at the mention of "global debt." However, this is no time to be cavalier about the prospects of another financial crisis. One major North American newspaper describes this nation's debt dilemma as "alarming." Across the Atlantic, a major country is also piling up debt at a stunning rate. Get the details.
Updated: December 17, 2020Global debt has skyrocketed in 2020. Credit which is tied to production can add value to an economy. However, much of today's debt is counter-productive. Get the insights that you need to know so you can prepare for what may be a historic debt deflation.
Updated: November 23, 2020The big economic news during the past several weeks was that the U.S. economy grew 33.1% on an annualized basis in Q3. However, the evidence shows that this figure does not tell the full story. Take a look at these two charts.
Updated: November 10, 2020Global debt seems to be a subject that's far removed from most people's daily lives. However, the Great Recession revealed otherwise. Now, learn why another global financial crisis may be just around the corner.
Updated: November 3, 2020Many investors have believed for quite a long time that the U.S. Federal Reserve has held a lot of power over the economy and even the stock market. Yet, it appears that this “faith in the Fed” is set to rapidly diminish. Learn why.
Updated: October 13, 2020Some sectors of the global financial system appear to be on shaky ground. Central bank assistance has fallen short and investors need to prepare for what may be ahead.
Updated: October 8, 2020The specter of a global debt deflation looms large. This chart shows “a highly unusual situation which is probably unsustainable.” Take a look for yourself.
Updated: September 25, 2020Elliott wave analysis suggests that the next few months could be quite historic for the British stock market, the economy and British pound. Our Head of Global Research (who is based in London) explains.
Updated: September 22, 2020You can apply Elliott wave to more than just stocks or forex. It also helped us warn subscribers of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2009 well before it became frontpage news. Now, here in 2020, real estate investors need to brace themselves – again. Here’s why.
Updated: September 15, 2020Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself.
Updated: August 27, 2020At market tops, the news is full of positive stories. Near bottoms, it's full of negativity. That's why those who invest strictly on the news often buy at tops and sell at bottoms. Watch our Global Head of Research explain how to "read" the current tone of British news properly.
Updated: July 28, 2020The real estate market – both commercial and residential – appears to be on shaky ground. Get the insights that you need to know.
Updated: July 20, 2020You hear lots of opinions about the markets. But who's right? Everyone has an angle. Now, at no cost, you can hear from the world's largest independent forecasting company. Our forecasts can help you make objective choices. Free, on July 23 -- 30, join us for 1 week of global insights into 50+ markets. See the difference independent analysis makes.
Updated: July 9, 2020Our July Global Market Perspective notes that there has been a "distinct relationship" between two economic / monetary indicators over the past 20 years. The annual change in one of them has "collapsed." Learn what our global analysts expect for the other indicator "over the next 18 months or so."
Updated: July 9, 2020The Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen component have been rising strongly. As usual, you're hearing lots of after-the-fact "reasons" as to why. But few, if any, mainstream experts were bullish in early April, in the thick of the pandemic. Here’s what helped us identify a bottom in China on April 3, 2020.
Updated: July 2, 2020Mark Galasiewski, chief equity analyst for Asia and emerging markets with Elliott Wave International, explains how the Elliott Wave model can help investors make sense of apparently chaotic patterns in financial markets.
Updated: June 15, 2020Deflation requires a precondition. Learn about it, plus get insights into private versus public debt. This chart shows you which nations are at the highest risk of a “severe debt deflation.”
Updated: May 28, 2020Japan has been struggling with deflationary pressures for 30 years. Now, signs of deflation are evident in the U.S. Here’s what characterizes a “deflationary crash.”
Updated: May 8, 2020It's hard to believe, but a key European stock index is still trading below its high from 20 years ago. That speaks volumes about Europe's social mood -- and the future of the European Union. Watch our Head of Global Research explain.
Updated: May 8, 2020"Deflation" is not the word you've heard very often -- until now. Falling prices across multiple asset classes suddenly got every everyone's attention. But deflation is much more than just "lower prices." Watch our Global Markets Strategist explain.
Updated: May 5, 2020The world has certainly been aware of all the “stay-at-home” orders in various places. At the same time, the value of many of those homes may be at risk. You see, a significant divergence has developed in the housing market. Get insights as you take a look at this chart.
Updated: May 3, 2020Today, a huge government and central bank fiscal stimulus is what almost everyone sees as the way out. But watch our Head of Global Research show an example from the Great Depression era that tells a different story.
Updated: May 1, 2020Stocks that lead higher off a bear-market low often continue to outperform their peers going forward. Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor show you examples using TEAM, BABA and more.
Updated: April 17, 2020If you zoomed out and took a snapshot of the markets and global economy, you'd see a pandemic, tumultuous equities, a rout in oil, record-busting bailouts, buybacks under fire, and the Fed flexing its muscles as the specter of deflation looms. But what does it all mean, and why is it happening now? Listen as EWI's Head of Global Research, Murray Gunn, breaks it all down in this conversation on the Classic Business podcast.
Updated: April 16, 2020While the news is mulling over "what the Chinese knew and when they knew it," from a technical analysis perspective it's mostly irrelevant for market timing. Watch our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update editor show you one indicator that flashed red well in advance.
Updated: April 16, 2020Deflation is rare. Indeed, there’s only been two such episodes in all of U.S. history. Are we on the doorsteps of yet another devastating deflationary period? Take a look at this eye-brow raising chart.
Updated: April 9, 2020On January 29, our European Short Term Update told subscribers that "a dramatic decline" in the FTSE was directly ahead. Watch the Update's editor and our Global Head of Research show why he made that forecast -- and explain why the worst is likely not over for the UK stock market.
Updated: April 3, 2020How can 1400 individual stocks, governed by a myriad of individual factors, fit into the same technical market pattern? There is only one logical answer. Watch our Asian-Pacific expert explain -- and show you how the COVID-19 pandemic fits into the same pattern.
Updated: March 18, 2020The decline in asset markets that Elliott Wave International has been forecasting has begun in a most dramatic fashion with stock markets around the globe plummeting over a very short time scale. Some might call it a crash, others a panic. We call it the first waves of a new bear market.
Updated: March 12, 2020Despite what you often hear from mainstream sources, it’s the stock market that leads the economy, not the other way around. But there are more ways to forecast what’s next for the economy. Take a look at this index, for example, which has been sending a warning signal since 2018, alongside the “softening” U.S. GDP numbers.
Updated: March 3, 2020EWI’s Head of Global Research explains why you should begin taking steps to brace yourself for a potential financial “storm of biblical proportions.”
Updated: February 19, 2020Many investors believe that economic news has an effect on the stock market. But a review of financial history shows that this just isn’t so. Consider India’s “jobs crisis” and the behavior of India’s key stock market index, the Nifty 50.
Updated: February 4, 2020The traditional model of market analysis says, "bad news begets declines." See why that did not work for real estate in Australia -- and why the Elliott wave model did, for four years running.
Updated: January 24, 2020The conventional wisdom says that the Federal Reserve has a great deal of influence over the economy and the stock market. However, EWI’s research shows that this is a flat-out myth. See for yourself.
Updated: January 23, 2020When you've done something for years, you start to notice patterns. We've been forecasting the markets since the 1970s, and we've picked up on some patterns, too. Watch our Global Market Perspective contributor, Murray Gunn, show you a couple of "breathtaking" charts.
Updated: December 13, 2019The year is wrapping up, so let's take a fly-over view of Europe. Watch as our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor shows you some eye-opening statistics -- and puts it in the all-important Elliott wave perspective.
Updated: December 10, 2019Governments use "fiscal stimulus" to kick start a weak economy … right? That's what textbooks say, but, real-world experience is otherwise. In truth, government "stimulus" is a lagging response to a bear market that has already turned around. See EWI's Mark Galasiewski explain the past and present in Japan as a case-in-point, with the opportunity it suggests.
Updated: November 15, 2019Credit is the lifeblood of modern economy. Watch as our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor takes a close look at today's "credit impulse" readings and explains the implications.
Updated: November 5, 2019"Cracks in the credit structure" were widening months before the onset of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Now, in 2019, similar warnings have started to appear. This chart is revealing...
Updated: October 30, 2019More and more you hear around the world that there are attempts to challenge the US dollar's "reserve currency" status. Our Head of Global Research gives you his take on a recent policy move by Russia -- and on the buck's long-term prospects.
Updated: October 24, 2019Is financial history set to repeat in the U.S. housing market? Well, be on your guard because the "extreme psychology" that was on display nearly 15 years ago is back -- and even bigger than before! Here are the details...
Updated: October 22, 2019Here's an indicator you won't see elsewhere: We show 50 years of extremes it registered -- both optimistic and pessimistic -- that proved to be great contrary indicators, right thru today.
Updated: September 24, 2019U.S. housing prices rebounded significantly following the depths of the housing bust. However, worrisome signs are beginning to appear. Take a look at this chart from our current Financial Forecast.
Updated: August 22, 2019Unrest continues in Hong Kong. China’s paramilitary forces are massing near the border. What if there’s more violence? Or an authoritarian invasion? Or a peaceful resolution? Investors all over the world want to know how much impact the Hong Kong chaos will have on global equities. Discover the surprising answer and learn how to protest-proof your portfolio (hint, you may have already done it) in this video.
Updated: July 23, 2019Did you know that the rate of job growth is at its most negative in decades? You will, once you see this chart for yourself.
Updated: July 16, 2019Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself...
Updated: June 27, 2019Speculators looking for a "fast buck" turned to day trading in the late 1990s. After the ensuing bear market, house flipping became a fad. But the big housing bust only put the kibosh on this pursuit temporarily. Will a big lesson have to be learned all over again?
Updated: June 19, 2019There is only ONE thing that matters in global financial markets. And the global governments have less and less of "it." Discover more in this free excerpt from our June 17 European Short Term Update.
Updated: June 3, 2019In a bull market, investment and business opportunities seem to be everywhere, to the point they're almost hard to miss. Bear markets, on the other hand, are more challenging. Even so, the opportunities are there -- if you know where to look.
Updated: May 17, 2019Dana Weeks talks to EWI Analyst Murray Gunn about how "Trade Tariff News" misses the true, long-term dangers to markets, economies, and people.
Updated: May 15, 2019"U.S. Median Single-Family Median Annual Sales Price" may be a mouthful, but the chart you'll see in this 2-minute video is anything but confusing. Watch where prices have gone from the 1980s through today -- and see a clear conclusion as to what's next.
Updated: May 14, 2019Buying a house is a major financial decision. We've all been admonished about "location, location, location" -- but, how about timing? Some real estate market indicators can be highly useful. Look at these two charts...
Updated: May 9, 2019Does the DJIA rise more often during times of war or peace? You might be surprised when you review these six charts.
Updated: May 8, 2019EWI's Murray Gunn explains the role of the Federal Reserve in "driving" interest rates and the economy -- you me be surprised to find out who (or what) is doing the real driving.
Updated: April 30, 2019In this interview, EWI's Murray Gunn shows Dana Weeks the evidence of a U.K. property decline -- and explains the big-picture meaning for mood and the larger economy.
Updated: April 16, 2019See the broader economic context that day-to-day headlines don't deliver: Chart of the Day shows you the big-picture trend in the all-important trend in global manufacturing.
Updated: April 4, 2019Houses have been subject to price fluctuations like the stock market for one reason: They're considered an investment as much as a place to hang your hat. Learn what our analysts are saying about an "unmistakable" trend in the real estate market...
Updated: March 28, 2019This article from Financial Forecast co-editors Steven Hochberg and Pete Kendall explains why the Fed DOES NOT drive interest rates. See the crystal-clear facts and evidence that uncovers the truth behind this common misconception.
Updated: March 28, 2019There are many widely held beliefs about the stock market that are simply untrue. Even professional market observers often neglect to investigate these "myths" for themselves -- and their clients. Consider the claim that a falling trade deficit is good for stocks, and vice versa. Here's what EWI's research has uncovered...
Updated: March 18, 2019Major stock market trends don't happen in a vacuum -- the "trend behind the trend" is literally visible throughout the culture and economy. In this interview with Dana Weeks, Matt Lampert explains the trend in automobile styles.
Updated: March 14, 2019In February 2018, euro-bullishness was everywhere: Traders, the media, Wall Street. Now watch Jim Martens show his charts & forecast that went against the herd.
Updated: March 6, 2019In this interview, EWI's Pro Services analyst Murray Gunn speaks with Dana Weeks about what’s really behind the turn in housing, and what may be next.
Updated: March 5, 2019A survey of chief financial officers reveals a near unanimous opinion about the prospects for a recession this year. This consensus has piqued our interest. Here's why...
Updated: February 21, 2019Housing data in 2018 looked ... unhealthy. The "villain" seems obvious -- namely, central bank rate hikes. But now see the charts and evidence that show a different (and far more credible) explanation.
Updated: February 12, 2019There's a widespread belief that the Fed holds the levers which guide the economy and maneuvers markets. But the evidence shows that this is simply not the case. These two charts speak for themselves...
Updated: January 29, 2019Everyone remembers that housing prices were crushed during and even after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Are we headed toward a repeat? Here's what we've been telling subscribers...
Updated: January 2, 2019Elliott Prechter and Pete Kendall answer the "largest bubble?" question -- plus many others -- in this EVT video.
Updated: December 20, 2018Treasury yields may soon turn "not normal," otherwise known as the inverted yield curve. This clear and compelling interview with EWI's Jordan Kotick shows you why it really does matter.
Updated: December 19, 2018The European Central Bank is the latest to pursue a deflationary policy.
Updated: December 13, 2018EWI's Pete Kendall describes the rise and fall of the company that defined consumer shopping in 20th century America: Sears & Roebuck. See 100-year chart for yourself.
Updated: December 6, 2018EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy tells Dana Weeks about the pattern in Boeing that helped him forecast the huge gains in August and September. See the chart for yourself.
Updated: November 28, 2018EWI's Mark Galasiewski talks to Dana Weeks about his recent keynote address to the International Federation of Technical Analysts
Updated: November 19, 2018EWI's Murray Gunn talks tells Dana Weeks about the pattern that helped him forecast the huge fall in the pound sterling. Plus, see the chart that warns of a coming recession.
Updated: October 23, 2018The New York Times says "Wall Street loves these risky loans." What is the NYT talking about? Think collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) with a twist. Here's what Elliott Wave International anticipates next
Updated: October 16, 2018Did you know that history shows a relationship between real estate and stock market prices? Find out which one leads, and which one follows.
Updated: September 21, 2018A slew of recent news articles have marked the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, asking if another financial crisis is likely. Here's our answer.
Updated: September 11, 2018The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August, more than expected. Wages also jumped. Is this bullish for stocks? For answers, let's look at 3 examples from the stock market's recent history.
Updated: September 7, 2018"Currency crises" are unfolding in four nations, with at least three more waiting in the wings. If history is any guide, this serves as warning to the world at large. Learn why...
Updated: August 14, 2018Ironically, financial markets are most risky when they appear to be the least so. With that in mind, let's sift through some "junk," with the aid of this chart.
Updated: August 10, 2018Signs of weakness are showing up in the U.S. housing market. A big-city newspaper just said, ". . . home sellers lower list prices as market cools way down." But how about the big-picture trend for real estate? Take a look at these two revealing charts...
Updated: August 7, 2018Many employees of state and local governments in the U.S. are expecting a financially "comfortable" retirement. But, a big shock likely awaits. Here's a sobering perspective.
Updated: July 25, 2018The amount of global debt has reached a precarious level. In the U.S. alone, federal debt has more than doubled in just the past 10 years. But there's much more to this dangerously unfolding debt drama.
Updated: July 13, 2018The Socionomics Institute's President Matt Lampert and Senior Analyst Alan Hall share stories on how they have used socionomic theory in real time to benefit their lives.
Updated: July 10, 2018The old saying about "a thief in the night" applies to deflation. It arrives when almost no one expects it. Learn why the onset of deflation might be a lot closer than most observers realize.
Updated: July 2, 2018Will the FDIC protect your deposits in case your bank goes under? If another financial crisis hits, millions of depositors may be more vulnerable than they realize. Here are insights you need to know.
Updated: June 28, 2018The ramped-up trade conflict "fits the Elliott wave model perfectly." Learn why.
Updated: June 22, 2018There's no substitute for technical indicators when analyzing the stock market. At the same time, observing social trends can also be useful, given that many of these trends correlate with the market. Here's a case in point ...
Updated: June 20, 2018First AT&T-Time Warner. Now Disney and Comcast's battle over Fox. History says these mega-mergers send a signal about the stock market's trend. Discover what it is in this clip from an interview with EWI's Murray Gunn on WSVA radio.
Updated: June 7, 2018The Wave Principle not only helps you see around the corner, it can also alert you to connections that most people wouldn't even think to look for. Sometimes it does both.
Updated: June 6, 2018A poll of 60 economists reveals that they all agree that a recession will not happen any time soon. Also, the Fed has stopped worrying about a Japan-like deflation. Does that mean we should all rest easy? Well, not so fast...
Updated: May 18, 2018Deflation is widely discussed but not widely understood. To take you through the basics of what deflation is and is not, ElliottWaveTV sat down with Murray Gunn, lead writer of deflation.com, as he explains the key concepts about deflation and what you need to watch out for.
Updated: May 9, 2018Most observers interpret the April jobless rate of 3.9% as sign that more smooth sailing is ahead for the economy. But the historical record shows what has actually followed milestone lows in the jobless rate. You may be in for a big surprise as you look at this chart.
Updated: May 9, 2018Economists and sociologists can talk until they're blue in the face about why millennials are putting off marriage and having fewer kids. But as Matt Lampert reveals in this conversation from WGN's Opening Bell, we've seen the "fewer children" phenomenon before -- and it sends an important message about the social mood trend and the economy's prospects for long-term health.
Updated: May 8, 2018High-debt levels combined with rising rates means increasing financial pain for borrowers. The eventual result is an all-out credit collapse.See a chart that suggests a debt implosion may be closer than many observers realize.
Updated: May 7, 2018Many observers anticipate higher inflation. Yet, the evidence suggests something else entirely. Learn why the financial system in 2018 may be in an even more precarious state than it was before the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
Updated: April 24, 2018After a brief brush with deflation in 2008, the market conversation is increasingly inflationary. ElliottWaveTV asked co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast for his take on where things are headed -- with one market in focus in particular: real estate.
Updated: April 20, 2018Trade tensions have subsided ... for now. Should we breathe a sigh of relief, or are more tough times ahead for trade? Hear EWI's Murray Gunn size up the risks to come, in this clip from a conversation on KFKA radio.
Updated: April 9, 2018Housing prices staged a significant rebound since the depths of the subprime mortgage "meltdown." Want to know when even luxury housing will become a "bargain"? Keep an eye on this financial market.
Updated: March 23, 2018If the stock market tanks and the economy contracts, do people begin putting off having children? You'd think so, but the data tell a different story. Here's what does happen, and why you should pay attention to the conceptions indicator today.
Updated: March 6, 2018See the "how" and "when" of the relationship of the stock market to the United States -- specifically, why it has become A Nation of Investors.
Updated: February 28, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: January 29, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: January 26, 2018Global debt seems to be a subject that's far removed from most people's daily lives. But, the Great Recession revealed otherwise. Now, learn why another financial crisis may be just around the corner.
Updated: January 25, 2018Think a booming economy is bullish for the stock market? Discover how you can bust this market myth in 60 seconds, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.
Updated: January 9, 2018It would seem logical that an expanding trade deficit would be a negative for the economy and stock market. But EWI's decades of research reveals a startling truth. See a chart that exposes one of the biggest market myths of all time.
Updated: December 29, 20172017 is ending at a high point for U.S. economic data. Most people would think that the economic data caused the stock market to rally. But here's the reality...
Updated: December 4, 2017Many people regard a house as an investment -- not just as a place to live. But, when a "consumption" item is treated like an "investment," a financially dangerous psychology develops. Learn what a recent study says about some of real estate's "investment advantages."
Updated: November 21, 2017Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.
Updated: October 31, 2017Remember the so-called "Goldilocks" economy around the turn of the last century? How about in 2007? Well, positive economic numbers didn't stop the stock market from topping in both years. Today, optimism about the economy has reached another extreme. See these two charts.
Updated: October 24, 2017President Trump is expected to soon announce his choice for the next Fed chair. Whoever is selected may turn out to be one of the unluckiest people in the world of finance. Find out why.
Updated: October 18, 2017Spending is fun! Easy credit is a blast! But debt is a downer. And, right now, numerous measures of debt are near all-time highs. Here's what EWI analysts are closely watching.
Updated: October 16, 2017In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs...
Updated: October 4, 2017The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...
Updated: September 29, 2017Many U.S. municipalities face a large and looming financial crisis. With the stock market's string of record highs getting most of the headlines, this next likely crisis will seem to arrive out of nowhere. Remember how the 2007-2009 financial crisis caught most everyone flat-footed? Find out what EWI analysts expect.
Updated: September 25, 2017You've probably seen the picture of the self-satisfied, rich man burning dollar bills to light a cigar. But, gold eating? The signs of excess are sending one clear message. Pay attention to this time-tested stock market indicator.
Updated: September 14, 2017The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.
Updated: September 7, 2017Troublesome developments are occurring in the U.S. housing market. Media outlets are saying that "an acute shortage of properties" is hurting sales. But, the real story is revealed in these chart patterns.
Updated: August 24, 2017This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...
Updated: August 18, 2017Is the proverbial "rainy day" upon us? If so, two developments indicate that many people are financially unprepared. Also, find out why our September Elliott Wave Theorist just published an entire month early.
Updated: August 16, 2017Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself.
Updated: August 9, 2017The trip up the side of Debt Mountain is getting more treacherous. A new milestone has been reached. Learn the lesson that financial history teaches.
Updated: July 19, 2017A housing market measure that just surged to the highest level ever may also be a warning to home buyers. We saw a similar development 10 years ago, when the worst part of the housing market implosion was still ahead.
Updated: July 17, 2017Gold and silver are widely considered classic inflation hedges. But conventional wisdom often does not square with reality. Market observers tend to see what fits with their paradigm. This will change yours.
Updated: July 13, 2017We anticipate that many more borrowers will welch on their obligations as debt starts to deflate.
Updated: July 10, 2017Some U.S. real estate markets have bounced back strongly since the Great Recession while others have languished. All told, "the recovery is spotty at best." Now, two new developments are adding risk to the mortgage market.
Updated: July 7, 2017In 1939, Sir Winston Churchill said that Russia was "... a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." The same could be said of China today.
Updated: July 5, 2017Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.
Updated: June 23, 2017The housing market is heating up -- again. Signs are appearing that are reminders of the previous housing boom. "Buyers are convinced values will only continue to climb ... ." Is the housing trend near a reversal?
Updated: June 21, 2017As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. A new milestone has been reached in the U.S. But a chart shows that the dangers of debt are global.
Updated: June 19, 2017Sir Isaac Newton famously said that "for every action, there is an equal and opposite re-action." But does this "law of motion" apply to finance? Many investors believe so, but the evidence shows that economic news does not affect the stock market.
Updated: June 13, 2017Matt Lampert, director of research at the Socionomics Institute, sheds some light on the relationship between terror attacks and the markets and tells you what to watch out for in the future, all in this 3-minute interview.
Updated: June 13, 2017Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.
Updated: June 5, 2017The U.S. housing market has staged a significant rebound since prices bottomed in February 2012. Now, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Updated: June 2, 2017Critics say President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement dealt a setback to the global-warming cause. But, the evidence suggests that "global-warming fever" had already been cooling off. "Crowds often think their personal cause of the moment is a permanent issue. It almost never is."
Updated: May 31, 2017The demand for luxury tends to increase as a financial mania matures. One of the latest extravagant items weighs 33 pounds and is made of solid gold. Financial trend changes usually occur when they're least expected. Are you prepared?
Updated: May 19, 2017News about today's economy only talks about "growth." The true story this chart tells isn't reported nearly as often.
Updated: May 17, 2017Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.
Updated: May 4, 2017Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America and anchors a greater metropolitan region of nine million -- more than a quarter of Canada's entire population. A city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States...
Updated: May 4, 2017Cash-strapped Puerto Rico is unable to meet its debt obligations as a key deadline passes. Investors in the Commonwealth's General Obligation Bonds have taken a big haircut. Other municipalities are next in line.
Updated: April 28, 2017Cash is the one asset that is almost sure to rise in value during a deflationary period. Yet, the "war on cash" has been escalating. Here's why you should start storing away plenty of cash.
Updated: April 28, 2017This humble chart shows REAL average weekly wages -- and why a bigger paycheck does NOT necessarily mean more purchasing power. See why purchasing power has been flat for a decade.
Updated: April 24, 2017Delinquencies have been increasing for subprime car loans. Yet, car dealers are unfazed and have been allowing buyers to "trade in underwater vehicles two or three times." The credit boom is reaching an extreme.
Updated: April 17, 2017Despite positive economic data coming out of Europe, Brian Whitmer explains that the recovery is mediocre at best.
Updated: April 7, 2017The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
Updated: March 24, 2017You buy insurance for protection, but some insurance companies themselves might be at risk. You need to know which ones are safe. "A massive insurance company failure" just made the news.
Updated: March 8, 2017You may think that investing in gold differs from investing in stocks -- after all, gold is a commodity. Yet, the same investor psychology that moves stocks also moves gold.
Updated: March 7, 2017Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash states: "The psychological aspect of deflation ... cannot be overstated." The manifestations of this psychology are already appearing. Learn where -- and how.
Updated: February 23, 2017U.S. debt is on the rise and could reach a milestone level sometime in 2017. Student debt has risen for 18 consecutive years, and subprime loans are a growing worry in another sector. See these charts to understand the threat.
Updated: February 22, 2017Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.
Updated: February 14, 2017Many recent survey respondents see clear skies ahead for the U.S. economy. But there's an important historic insight that investors need to know about today's economic optimism.
Updated: February 7, 2017News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
Updated: February 1, 2017U.S. shopping malls have seen better days. Now, foot traffic is dwindling. Major retailers are closing stores. One iconic retailer has just seen its share price touch fresh lows.
Updated: January 25, 2017Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our flagship Financial Forecast, tells you how "it all began" for him at the New York Stock Exchange.
Updated: January 20, 2017Residential real estate prices in major global cities rebounded sharply during the current bull market, especially at the high-end. Now, real estate developers grapple with price deflation. At least one real estate indicator is flashing a bigger warning than it did in 2007.
Updated: January 17, 2017If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Updated: December 27, 2016In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.
Updated: December 23, 2016Steve Hochberg, our Chief Market Analyst, sits down with ElliottWaveTV to talk about his background, how he discovered the Wave Principle, and why "it's applicable to all markets."
Updated: July 29, 2016"The economy leads, and the stock market follows." This common assumption is easy to check -- all you have to do is look at the data.
Updated: June 24, 2016On Friday, June 24, the world awoke to an apparent new wind blowing out of Europe: The citizens of Great Britain voted to leave the European Union.
Updated: February 1, 2016How could anyone have foreseen 10-15 years ago that marijuana would become the fuel for a legitimate and legal cannabis capitalism movement in the United States? Answer: Socionomics
Updated: October 29, 2015The evidence is clear. The stock market leads the economy contrary to popular belief. Episode 2 of the Elliott Wave Pillars series walks you through the overwhelming evidence that proves this point without a doubt.
Updated: October 29, 2015The Elliott Wave Pillars Series walks you through why we view the markets and social action the way we do. You'll see compelling evidence that will help change how you view the markets.
Updated: March 29, 2015Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg addressed why it the Dow priced in gold is important in this 3-minute clip.
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: The U.S. government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. ...
Updated: November 26, 2014Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.
Updated: November 11, 2014The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."
Updated: October 28, 2014This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.
Updated: October 22, 2014As bad news goes, terrorism is at the top of the list. Why then do stocks ignore these terrible events so often?
Updated: October 16, 2014"Peace lets companies innovate and compete, helping the economy." True -- and yet, stocks will go where they go.
Updated: October 6, 2014"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it." These 4 charts negate both cases.
Updated: September 12, 2014"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...
Updated: September 10, 2014"U.S. trade deficit seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about." This chart shows you why it's really not.
Updated: September 9, 2014"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.
Updated:Listen to the latest episode to learn how to use sentiment to identify market extremes -- case in point: gold. You'll also learn the real reason stocks just turned volatile.
Enjoy this in-depth interview that I recorded with Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst.Take a listen to learn why Steve thinks Elliott wave analysis is so useful and practical.
Today's episode starts off with an interview with Pete Kendall, the co-editor of the monthly Financial Forecast. Next you'll learn why ex-marines do well as investors and traders. The last feature is a conversation with Robert Kelley about stocks and several factors that are pointing to multi-year extremes.
Our first feature today explores how to get a firm handle on gold's ups and downs. Then we answer an important question: When does a forecast become a trade? Lastly, we look at the storm brewing for U.S. tech startups.
The central bank has a story to tell about itself. Should you believe it? If not, why not? We explain why the Fed wants you to think it has superpowers, even as it befuddles you with preposterous language. But, a whistleblower's inconvenient tape recordings changed things forever. Get the real story in our 9-minute podcast.
What could the Federal Reserve and comedian Bill Cosby possibly have in common? In a sentence, "Ruined reputations, thanks to negative social mood." Yes it sounds bizarre -- but hear Robert Folsom and TR explore WHY the ugly hidden truths about heroes (and heroic institutions) can so suddenly make news. Listen for yourself.
Bond yields have fallen to 50-year lows in the world's major economies, and this trend has reached nearly ALL countries. Yet if you can even find a news article about this story, it will probably include phrases like "unanticipated," "surprise," and "against the consensus forecast." What that means is, the experts did NOT see any of this coming...
Nothing in the stock market is ever permanent -- even the recent complacency... For the third time this year, gold prices are trying to break out. Will the latest rally attempt succeed?... In bear markets, it's about the "return OF your money" instead of the "return ON your money."
The episode starts with an in-depth interview with Mark Galasiewski who edits our Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast. He tells you what helps him keep an eye on all markets across the Asian-Pacific region at the same time. In part 2 of this interview with Mark, he tells you how his analysis of Indian stocks differs from the way he looks at other markets. The last feature is from Bob Stokes. Most investors consistently lose money in financial markets. Even during a bull market, the median household saw their retirement wealth decline by 13%.
Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.
Learn why the recent price action in gold suggests to him that gold prices may be entering a risky period soon. Plus, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone and we're sounding the alarm. Lastly, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Our latest episode discusses the "Trump bump," which our analysts say was in the cards long before Trump. Plus, shouldn't corporate insiders avoid mistakes "Mom and Pop" investors make? Lastly, it might surprise you that earnings and prices sometimes go in opposite directions.
Sentiment gets one-sided only at certain points in the markets' Elliott wave pattern. Learn what sentiment gauges are telling you about the market trend. Yield spreads widen for Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey. Muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future. President Trump finds his administration embroiled in controversy and investigation. Learn how social mood will influence the outcome of this chapter in American history.
A look at sentiment and social mood across Europe as French voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect France's new president. Plus, learn why looking at the U.S. dollar, interest rates and politics are the wrong tools when trying to forecast the price action in gold. And this Canadian city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States.
Updated:Today's episode starts by looking at with active vs. passive investing, we then dig deeper into the housing market and conclude with how the Wave Principle helped anticipate a recent move in the Yuan.
We start with a new interview with Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Markets Expert. Next week take a look at money velocity and explain how you can learn a lot from watching "how fast money changes hands." Lastly, we explain why higher delinquencies should soon be a reality.
Learn why it's unusual for gold and silver to have different patterns -- as they've shown lately -- and what that means for the price trends going forward. Some insurance companies themselves might be at risk as "A massive insurance company failure" just made the news. Are "baby boomers" driving the stock market's trend?
Today's episode discusses how much political damage does a scandal do to the president? We also reveal why investors should keep a close watch on corporate insider selling. And answer questions in our latest ElliottWaveTV viewer mailbag.
Updated:Our first feature looks at a gold forecast that many may have missed. Then we speak with Jeffrey Kennedy who outlines the four key principles that'll help improve Elliott wave skills. And lastly, we explore why AAA credit ratings aren't always what they seem.
Learn how looking at social mood can offer clarity to one of America's oldest ongoing political controversies, plus why Elliott Wave International believes the "Trump Bump" was in the cards LONG before Trump, and lastly, the BIG story everyone missed in 2016 and what it means for you now.
We start by taking a look at deflation in Europe. The Eurozone is nearing target inflation rates -- but looking below the surface, is it as good as it seems? Sticking with the topic of inflation, we take a deeper look at inflation hedges. Last we switch gears to politics. The first few months of a new president's term is often referred to as a honeymoon phase. So far, Donald Trump hasn't made his "bride" -- namely, the American public -- too happy.