The bear market in BA was written in the Elliott wave skies from the word “take off.”
A series of deadly crashes, mechanical failures, equipment malfunctions, worker strikes, in-fighting, corruption allegations, financial woes, lawsuits, civic protests, risks of an imminent junk downgrade, and a crashing stock – these are the setbacks that have plagued the Boeing Company in recent years.
From Medium, July 8, 2024:
Hey Boeing… You suck — A Timeline of the Aviation Giant’s Catastrophic Fall from Grace
Once a symbol of American industrial excellence, Boeing has stumbled from one crisis to another over the past decade.
Through a socionomics lens, the fall of this American icon was written in the skies from the words “take off.” On March 18, 2019, our Short-Term Update presented the following labeled chart of Boeing Inc. (BA), which identified a complete, five-wave rally from its 2009 low.
The sociometer of stock prices suggested a painful bear market was just ahead for the Big Board heavyweight. From Short Term Update:
The Dow is a price-weighted index and Boeing’s share price of approximately $372 per share makes it the most heavily weighted stock, currently comprising 9.73% of the index.
This next chart shows the weekly range of Boeing’s share price since the end of Primary wave 4 (circle) in 2009. The stock has traced out a clear Elliott wave, with all the requisite subwaves in place in order to consider the five-wave advance complete at Primary degree. At the $446.01 high on March 1, wave (5) was a Fibonacci 2.618 times the distance traveled in wave (1) through (3). A bear market in Boeing would be perfectly consistent with a bear market in the DJIA.
The March 1, 2019 peak in Boeing held, and its share price began a sharp nosedive. Our socionomic analysis warned that the company’s image and reputation would reflect its falling stock price. From the April 2019 Socionomist:
The flight control software system in Boeing’s 737 Max planes is at the center of an investigation following two fatal crashes since October. The Federal Aviation Administration has grounded the aircraft.
One of investors’ worries is that the reputation of the 737 Max … is now tarnished to the point that it will hurt demand for the plane. This is no small concern: The 737 Max, a jet that costs more than $100 million, is Boeing’s all-time best-selling aircraft, and the company is lined up to sell several thousand more. If airlines cancel their orders, Boeing would stand to lose billions of dollars.
Unfortunately the next large-degree negative mood trend will likely represent a new era of crash risk. The integrity of the airline’s safety technologies, processes and procedures will be especially important during such a time.
A follow up in the May 2019 Socionomist added:
Look for more challenges for Boeing, more aircraft disasters and a greater hunger for scandals when mood grows more negative.
2019-2020 was the year Boeing went bust, hammered by more scandals, systems failures, and an 80% selloff in its share price to multiyear lows. BA tried to rebound from its 2020 low, but continued to experience turbulence. Our February 2024 Global Rates & Money Flows anticipated further declines:
This analysis suggests that Boeing’s share price is entering another dramatic declining wave. If this happens, expect talk of credit downgrades to emerge, and likely a few more airliner mishaps.
And, the June 2024 Socionomist said this about the aerospace giant:
Two months later, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook for Boeing to negative. It said that the company faces “heightened production uncertainty, notably related to quality issues affecting its 737 Max aircraft” (S&P Global Ratings, April 25, 2024). Moody’s Ratings also gave Boeing a negative outlook.
More airliner mishaps did indeed follow. In a single week in March, Boeing planes were involved in five incidents that included an engine fire; a lost tire that fell and crushed several vehicles in a parking lot; a plane that rolled off a runway; another plane that had to make an emergency landing due to fumes in the cabin; and another that dropped altitude unexpectedly, injuring dozens of passengers.
Unfortunately, this wasn’t the end of the mishaps. In May, the company’s planes were involved in three accidents within a two-day period.
Since our analyst published Figure 1 in the February issue of Global Rates and Money Flows, Boeing’s share price has continued to decline.
Social mood is patterned according to a robust fractal called the Elliott wave model. Socionomics is the only analytical tool equipped to interpret Elliott wave patterns in a company’s stock, which can also inform the direction public perceptions will take.
Recent issues of The Socionomist show how the engine of social mood has driven a surge in in global warfare, political divisiveness, marijuana legalization, authoritarian leadership, extraterrestrial preoccupation, nostalgia for 1950s fashion and gender roles, and more.
Get access to the complete library of Socionomist reports today!