How Moving Averages Help You to Define the Trend
“One way to think of a moving average is that it’s an automated trend line.”
by Bob Stokes
Updated: February 21, 2020
The "moving average" is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.
More than 30 years ago, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:
... a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.
So, what is a moving average?
Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy, a more than 25-year veteran of technical analysis, provides an answer:
A moving average is simply the average value of data over a specified time period, and it is used to figure out whether the price of a stock or commodity is trending up or down.
One way to think of a moving average is that it's an automated trend line.
Kennedy offers examples and insights about moving averages in the instructive guide, "How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages."
Here's an introductory chart from the guide, along with Kennedy's comments:
The chart plots three moving averages on a [past] daily chart for Corn. The red line represents a 10-period weighted moving average, the green line represents a 10-period exponential moving average, and the blue line is a 10-period simple moving average.... The exponential moving average and weighted moving average put more value on the front end, which means that while a 10-period simple moving average assigns the same weight to each period, exponential and weighted moving averages put more weight on the most recent data.
I rely mostly on the simple moving average, because simple things usually work best.
In this guide, Kennedy shows more elaborate charts as he goes into detail about the "dual moving average crossover system" and the "moving average price channel system." Moreover, he informs you how to combine the two.
Yet, also be aware that Kennedy discusses the pitfalls of relying on one "magic" moving average setting.
In the free guide, How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages, you'll also learn how to avoid being "whipsawed" by false signals.
Find out how to get instant access to this popular free trading guide by following the link below.
How To Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages
If you're at all familiar with technical analysis, you've probably heard of moving averages. That's because moving averages are simple and, more importantly, they work.
Moving averages can be quite powerful in the hands of a trader or investor who knows how to use them. They help reveal two crucial things that every trader wants to know: whether a trend will continue, and when it's about to change.
In this excerpt from the "How to Trade the Highest Probability Opportunities: Moving Averages" ebook, Trading Master Jeffrey Kennedy show you his easy-to-follow method. He'll have you understanding moving averages in no time!
As 2020 began, the convertible bonds called CoCo's were one of the best-performing fixed-income assets. Yet we warned subscribers that this asset was about to "collapse." Now see the jaw-dropping chart that shows what followed.
You can distill all Elliott wave trade setups down to just 4 high-confidence chart patterns. Among those 4, our Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy has an absolute favorite: the 4th wave pullback. Watch Jeffrey explain why he likes this setup so much -- in bull AND in bear markets.
How can 1400 individual stocks, governed by a myriad of individual factors, fit into the same technical market pattern? There is only one logical answer. Watch our Asian-Pacific expert explain -- and show you how the COVID-19 pandemic fits into the same pattern.