Related Topics
Stocks , Investing
     

Why You Should Expect a Pickup in Stock-Market Volatility

“Traders are convinced the market volatility will remain subdued”

by Bob Stokes
Updated: August 23, 2022

When things get quiet in a horror movie, that's when you need to really brace yourself. The monster or the killer will soon be on the scene.

That's a close enough analogy to what can happen in the stock market. Just when investors get comfortable with a stretch of low volatility -- wham! -- volatility picks up in a major way.

Back on Nov. 27, 2019, our U.S. Short Term Update showed a chart titled "Calm Before the Craziness," and said:

The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) closed below 12.00 for the third straight session... In fact, investors are so complacent that, paradoxically, it signals a coming pick up in volatility.

About three months later, our Feb. 24, 2020 U.S. Short Term Update noted:

The VIX surged 69% intraday and is now up 130% since the November 26 low. The VIX should eventually move even higher as stocks prices work lower.

As you may recall, a hair-raising stock market decline that had started in mid-February continued to plummet into March 23 of that year.

What does this have to do with today?

This chart and commentary from our August 15, 2022 U.S. Short Term Update provides the answer:

VolatilityPickup

We have inverted the scale to align the VIX with prices. The DSI Indicator (trade-futures.com) has declined to 15, the lowest reading since March 29 (DSI of 13), which coincided with [an Elliott wave high]. The VIX itself declined to 19.12 on August 12 and traders are convinced the market volatility will remain subdued. As shown by the vertical dashed lines, the prior two times that traders were equally confident that volatility will remain muted occurred at or near prior market highs.

Indeed, an August Yahoo Finance headline reflects an example of this confidence:

10 reasons to be bullish on stocks right now, according to [a strategist at the largest U.S. bank]

That strategist may turn out to be correct.

On the other hand, volatility has already picked up since our August 15 analysis published. Of course, during periods of high volatility, there's the potential for big moves on the up- as well as downside.

Now it's time to learn what the Elliott wave pattern of the stock market is suggesting.

Just follow the link below.

Here's How Elliott Wave Experience Counts

Does experience count?

In truth, experience can't guarantee successful market forecasts.

Yet, keep in mind these words from the Wall Street classic book by Frost & Prechter, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths.

That's how our team of Elliott wave analysts can help you -- starting now.

Learn how to get instant access to Elliott Wave International's latest commentary on the U.S. stock market, bonds, gold, silver, the U.S. dollar and much more (including insights into the U.S. economy).

Learn more by following the link below.

Financial Forecast Service

$97

All month long, Financial Forecast Service helps you stay ahead of the waves in the U.S. markets on the timeframes that matter the most. FFS covers the stock indexes, bonds, gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, as well as market psychology and cultural trends. It is our most popular service.

Comprises the monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, 3x-per-week Short Term Update and at least 12x-per-year Elliott Wave Theorist.

EXCLUSIVE

How to Fine-Tune Your Elliott Wave Forecast

When you combine Elliott waves with other technical analysis indicators, often it helps you clarify your forecast. Watch our Currency Pro Service editor, Michael Madden, combine the waves with classic technical tools like Head & Shoulders and RSI to forecast the next move in USD/CAD.

How Countertrend Rallies Can Slyly Lure in Investors

Is the stock market's main trend up or down? It's a basic question that Elliott wave analysis helps you answer -- and thus anticipate countertrend moves that fool others -- even those who are accomplished. For example, here's the brief story of a physician's portfolio.

How to Predict Commodity Trends? Put One (Elliott Wave) Foot in Front of the Other

In early 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic delivered a "shock like no other" to the global commodities sector. The bearish "fundamental" shoe seemed to fit like a glove. But instead, a 2-year long bull market occurred. Maybe it's time to slip into a new pair of market analysis.