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U.S. Stocks: Here’s Evidence of a “Nearly Unprecedented Acceptance of Risk”

Penny stocks fever has reached “the highest level since the first three months of 2000”

by Bob Stokes
Updated: March 18, 2021

Penny stocks tend to be highly illiquid. In other words, it's difficult to buy and sell them at favorable prices.

Even so, the lure of low-priced shares is hard for many market participants to resist, especially the novices -- like in 2000, when penny stock trading had reached a fever pitch.

Well, just about the same thing has been going on this year. Here's a Jan. 20 Reuters headline:

Analysis: A 'buy' is just a tap away: stock market dabblers drive trading boom into 2021

Our March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast offered its perspective with this chart and commentary:

PenniesfromHeaven

Total Penny Stock Dollar Volume hit $72 billion in January, the highest level since the first three months of 2000, when the dot-com mania peaked. Other than those three months, when penny-stock dollar volume averaged a whopping $155 billion, the value of shares traded in January 2021 was the highest. This suggests a nearly unprecedented acceptance of risk... This chart shows the average daily trading volume in penny stocks.

In a Feb. 16 Bloomberg article headlined "Penny Stock Craze at Boiling Point...," a portfolio manager is quoted:

"It is very markedly similar to what we saw in 1999 with these day traders and novice investors coming in and treating the market as a get-rich-quick type of scheme, and of course that didn't end too well 20 years ago."

Indeed, Elliott wave analysis is revealing a lot about what's ahead for the stock market here in 2021.

As the Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter, says:

[T]he Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress.

Every market participant -- whether novice or professional -- should know the Wave Principle's current market message.

Suffice it to say: it appears historic.

Follow the link below and you're on your way to getting the market insights you need.

Knowing the Dow Industrials’ "Wave Count" is Crucial: Here's Why:

That knowledge helps you anticipate big price moves in the direction of the main trend.

And -- just as important -- you won't be fooled by countertrend moves.

Remember, the stock market's price pattern unfolds simultaneously at all degrees of trend. Meaning -- hourly trends are part of daily trends, and in turn, these comprise the weekly trends which are part of the monthly trends and so on.

An investor needs to be familiar with all of them to make sense of what is going on with the stock market.

See what our Elliott wave analysts see by following the link below.

EXCLUSIVE

Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere

Down more than 25%, the NASDAQ is "officially" in bear-market territory. "Big whoop" as they used to say -- some of the hi-tech darlings have already been cut in half and then some. Bet the folks down 50% or more in their so-called investments are glad to hear they're "official." And now Bitcoin, the King of Cryptos, has hit an "air pocket" of its own and fallen below $30,000. Wonder if that's officially a bear market, too? This excerpt from our new, May Financial Forecast explains how it all fits together.

EXCLUSIVE

Bitcoin: How to Spot Signs of Fast Reversals

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are no strangers to volatile, sharp reversals. If you get caught up in one unprepared, it's not a good feeling. But watch our Crypto Trader's Classroom instructor show you how Elliott waves can help take the "surprise" out of crypto "surprises."

EXCLUSIVE

EUR/USD: How to 'Trade with the Trend'

The euro vs. U.S. dollar is most-traded forex pair -- and lately, the euro has been losing, pushing EUR/USD lower and lower. At moments like that, many FX traders will try to catch the bottom. Watch our Currency Pro Service editor show you what Elliott wave evidence you need to do that with less risk.