Does the Stock Market Really “See” the Future?
Addressing the notion that the market “discounts” future events
by Bob Stokes
Updated: September 03, 2020
Let's start off with an August 26 quote from Marketwatch:
[F]rothy financial markets.. currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery...
Of course, that statement means that the reason investors have been bidding stock prices higher is that they collectively anticipate a strong economic recovery.
But is that the real reason that stock prices are in record-high territory again?
Well, financial history seems to suggest otherwise.
Here's a classic statement from the founder of Elliott Wave International, Robert Prechter:
The idea that the mass of investors possess near-omniscience about the economic future is difficult to defend. It does not explain why in 1928 the market foresaw nothing but blue sky, in 1929 very suddenly foresaw depression, and in early 1930 anticipated a recovery that never happened.
Because markets are patterned, the concept of near-perfect collective forecasting must be false.
The market also saw "blue sky" when the Dow reached its then all-time high in 2007, right before the market collapse and the economy fell into the "Great Recession." And, the same applies to early 2020, before the stock market fell 38%.
No, the real reason why the stock market has risen since the March low is contained in that phrase from the Robert Prechter quote: "Markets are patterned."
And, it's investor psychology that creates the price pattern of the market -- not "near omniscience" about future events.
These Elliott wave patterns show up time and again in market charts -- at all sizes of trend.
Here's a look at a simple, idealized Elliott wave at increasing degrees of detail:
The bottom line is that the market follows the Wave Principle. It is not governed by the anticipation of future events, or for that matter, current events or anything external to the market.
Further, because Elliott wave patterns are repetitive, they are predictable!
Investors would do well to learn what the current Elliott wave pattern is suggesting about the stock market's next big price move.
Tap into our Elliott wave experts' insights by reading our flagship investor package without any obligation for 30 days. Just follow the link below to get started now.
What Are the Best Market Indicators? (Hint: the Test of Time)
EWI analysts make it their business to know the history of market indicators, and how they've served our subscribers throughout the years.
Right now, you can see the time-tested indicators our analysts are using -- and learn what they suggest for the price trends of major U.S. financial markets, including the major stock indexes.
You have a full 30 days to review them at your leisure -- no obligation on your part whatsoever!
Follow the link below to get started right away.
In March-April 2020, experts from Wall Street to OPEC saw one scenario for the future: a collapse in demand that ensured the energy sector “will never be the same.” Now see the forecast that got it right.
Conventional wisdom says that shockingly bad news will derail a rising stock market, and that extraordinarily good news will stop a downtrend. However, financial history tells another story. Let's look at instructive examples -- both from the past and presently.