Look at This Big Reminder of “Dot.com Mania”
Here’s when a surge in IPOs tends to occur
by Bob Stokes
Updated: September 11, 2020
Let's pretend for a second we're trying to explain to an alien how the weather works on planet Earth.
When the sky turns dark and cloudy, we might tell him, this indicates rain -- perhaps even thunderstorms. However, cloudy skies do not necessarily signal when a downpour will start or how long it will last if it does start. After all, the sun could break through before an umbrella is needed. All that said, when the sky turns ominous, it's a good idea to have your umbrella handy -- just in case.
Now let's pretend we're talking to a brand-new investor and apply the same explanation to some less-talked-about stock market indicators. They "indicate" but don't guarantee a particular market development. Nor its timing should it develop. But, it's a good idea for investors to be on alert.
One such stock market indicator is the initial public offerings market. It got red hot around the peak of the dot.com frenzy back in the year 2000 and also near the time of the 2007 stock market top.
With that in mind, our just-published September Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discusses the IPO market here in 2020. Here's a chart and commentary:
It's official; the market for initial public offerings is as hot as it's been since the dot.com mania. The chart shows the monthly total for IPOs starting in 1999. In terms of deals, the boom of the late 1990s is still of a larger scale, but the 42 offerings in July of this year is the highest total since August 2000. The second highest total since 2000 came in November 2007, when 39 IPOs came to market just as the 2007-2009 bear market started. A surge in IPOs tends to occur around major stock market tops, with a final last-gasp spike taking place after the stock market peaks.
Indeed, here's a Barron's headline from August 31, 2020:
Get Ready for a Crazy Wave of IPOs.
What's more, our September Financial Forecast also points out that, similarly to 1999 and 2000, many IPOs and prospective IPOs today are money losers, or even lack revenues.
As financial history suggests, such unbridled optimism usually does not last indefinitely.
Now, as suggested a moment ago, the IPO market is an indicator -- and a single one at that. It does not say whether the stock market will plummet next week, next month or whenever. It simply suggests that an investor should be prepared.
However, the Elliott wave model does offer high-confidence market turn insights.
Learn what our Elliott wave experts are saying about the stock market's price pattern.
Follow the link below to get started.
The Stock Market is a Fractal: Why That’s Important to Know
Here's how the founder of Elliott Wave International, Robert Prechter, described a fractal:
A fractal is an irregularly shaped object that is nonrandom in the sense that its discontinuities (i.e., fluctuations) at all scales are similarly irregular. For example, if someone were to show you a line representing the indentations of land along a coastline, you would not be able to say, without other evidence, whether the coastal section was 1 mile long, 10 miles long, 100 miles long or 1000 miles long. A fractal displays the property of self-similarity (or self-affinity, depending on its form) at different scales. The jaggedness of a coastline is self-similarly irregular at different scales. So it is with price graphs of financial markets. As R.N. Elliott pointed out in 1938, the patterns of the Wave Principle take a similarly jagged shape whether viewed on an hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly graph.
It's important to know that the stock market is a fractal because these "patterns of the Wave Principle" repeat "at all scales."
This repetition offers predictive value!
EWI's 25-plus analysts are Wave Principle experts.
Learn what they predict for stocks, bonds, the U.S. dollar, gold, silver and more.
The strong recent decline in Germany's DAX has many investors worried -- after all, the DAX is Europe's equivalent of the DJIA. Now see how a simple Elliott wave price formation guideline -- first discovered by R.N. Elliott almost 100 years ago -- warned of the DAX's bearish opportunity as early as October 14. Our European Short Term Update editor explains.
On Friday October 23rd, The Short Term Update noted the recent "lower lows and lower highs" - and told subscribers to keep an eye on 28,040 in the Dow, saying a break could come "very early next week." See the chart and forecast for yourself.
Many retail and professional investors remain bullish on the stock market -- even after a multi-month rally. Get insights into a recent investor survey -- plus, see a chart which shows how the current optimism matches up with similar levels of optimism in the past.