Related Topics
Interest Rates , US Markets
     

U.S. Treasury Yields: “Acceleration of the Rise in Rates”

See how Elliott waves help you to determine the “possible future” path in this market, too

by Bob Stokes
Updated: March 02, 2021

The 39-year bull market in the U.S. Treasury long bond likely terminated last year, on March 9, 2020, when the yield hit a record low of 0.664% (keep in mind that yields move inversely to prices).

Shortly thereafter, our April 2020 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said:

Bond prices should now work down... rates will rise.

Indeed, that's what happened: Bond yields and interest rates have climbed since our forecast last April.

What's more, over the past several trading days, that 39-year bull market has been left even further behind. On Feb. 25, the yield on the U.S. Treasury long bond reached 2.44%. That's a 267% jump from the last March low!

During the past month, the move up in yields has been particularly swift, and our February Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (which published Feb. 5) was ahead of the move. Here's a chart and commentary:

Bond-full

The rate rise is progressing as forecast, as shown on the chart of the U.S. Treasury long bond yield, which is inverted to reflect prices. Yields broke through a six-month resistance line this week, which crosses 1.95%. The odds are increasing for an acceleration of the rise in rates. [emphasis added]

Our forecasts have been made not based on the Fed's policy or the pondering of various economic "fundamentals" -- but strictly on the bond market's progressing Elliott wave structure.

Wave labels on bond charts are available to our subscribers and help them to ascertain what's next for bonds (and other key financial markets, like stocks).

As Frost & Prechter's book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, says:

What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott's highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum. Among those, the best interpretation, sometimes called the "preferred count," is the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines.

Learn what our current "preferred count" suggests is just ahead for the bond market, as well as stocks, gold, silver, the U.S. dollar and more.

Follow the link below to get timely insights from our flagship investor package.

Here's What the Wave Principle Provides You:

" ...a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook." [emphasis added]

That's straight from the Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

When you see how our Elliott wave experts put the recent stock market volatility into context, it all makes sense. In other words, Elliott wave analysis helps to prepare you for what's next.

Get that "perspective on the market's general position and outlook" by reviewing our flagship investor package.

Just follow the link below to get started now.

EXCLUSIVE

Independent Scotland = Market Crash?

Scotland's independence is again a hot topic in Britain, with many observers saying that a break-up of the union would be bad for the country's financial markets. For a different look at causality -- i.e., chicken vs. the egg -- watch our Head of Global Strategy show you the current Elliott wave setup in EURGBP and FTSE.

Stocks vs. U.S. Births: Is There Really a Connection?

In a word, yes. A couple of decades ago, Robert Prechter plotted the number of annual births on a stock market chart and noticed a remarkable correlation. Except, it's not for the reasons you may think... Watch the Socionomics Institute's Director Matt Lampert and EWI's Robert Folsom dive into details.

How This Global Financial Player Became “Primed” for a 90% Plunge

"How The Mighty Have Fallen." That's the title of one of our revealing charts inside our just-published May Global Market Perspective. Take a look at a "triple top" in the price pattern of this global financial institution -- and the 90% decline which followed.