Here's What Places Global Bond Buyers at "High Risk"
One-fifth of the largest U.S. publicly traded companies are skating on thin ice -- here's why
by Bob Stokes
Updated: January 21, 2021
Investors who are worried that the stock market rally has gone "too far, too fast" and seek a "safe haven" in the bond market may want to think twice.
The reason why is that the credit market appears highly precarious.
First, with rates at historic lows, even a modest rise in rates will rapidly reduce the value of bonds. Indeed, this is already occurring.
Also, our January Global Market Perspective provides more insights into why investors may not want to "diversify" into bonds. Here's a chart and commentary:
According to Bloomberg, there is [a] large cohort of companies that earn less than their total interest expenses. In all, this group comprises one fifth of the largest publicly traded companies and owes a record $2 trillion, 30% more than the total of 2008 and double that of last year. Two household names on the list are Carnival and Exxon Mobil. Cheap credit abetted by Federal Reserve bond buying has kept these firms alive, but there is a reason that analysts refer to them as zombies: "They face insolvency without policy markers' support." So, historically low interest rates and record fiscal and monetary stimulus have not been enough to stem a record number of firms with profits below debt servicing costs.
What's already been stated raises enough red flags, yet you may be also interested in knowing that among U.S. companies with more than $50 million in liabilities, 244 filed for bankruptcy in 2020, the most for a year since 2009. Even so, junk bond yields are at record lows, and yields on ultra-junk, the lowest tranche of junk, are at multi-year lows.
The January Global Market Perspective offered this takeaway:
This epic complacency in the context of burgeoning bankruptcies and zombie companies, places bond buyers at high risk.
Here's an update on that credit market complacency -- reflected in this Jan. 15 headline from U.S. News & World Report:
Bond Market Outlook: Yields Likely to Stay Low in 2021
This complacency extends beyond the borders of the U.S.
Now is the time to get an independent outlook on global bond yields from our Global Market Perspective.
Elliott wave analysis strongly suggests that you will be very glad you did.
Following the link below gets you started.
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