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10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Anticipating the Rising Trend

by Bob Stokes
Updated: June 15, 2022

On June 14, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surpassed 3.45% -- its highest level in more than 11 years.

Keep in mind that the lowest intraday reading for the yield on the 10-year note was 0.31% -- and that was as recently as 2020. So the rise has been remarkable.

Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast was ahead of this trend reversal. Back in March 2020, the publication showed this graph of yields on global bonds, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and general obligation municipal bonds. Here's the commentary:

Next-to-Nothing Yields

According to 150 years' worth of data ... this is the first time that 10-year Treasury note yields have dropped below 1%. Grand Supercycle-degree tops set Grand Supercycle records. Investor ebullience is the only thing that allows for an embrace of no-yield debt. The tidal wave of risk assumption, however, may be turning.

In other words: Expect the downward trend in yields to turn upward.

Shortly after that March 2020 analysis in the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published, yields began to climb.

As you might imagine, bond portfolios have taken a substantial hit (bond prices sink as yields climb).

Shifting to corporate bond portfolios, Bloomberg had this headline on March 14 of this year:

Corporate Bond Rout Is So Severe History Books Need a Revision

The article goes on to say:

[U.S. corporate bond] losses have piled so high that they now belong in history books. A Bloomberg index of investment-grade returns is down 10.5% so far this year ... There is little precedent for drops of that magnitude.

Mind you, this was back in March and yields have risen since.

As a May 12 headline from the Associated Press said:

Bonds, haven for elderly and cautious, are getting torched

The question is: What does the Wave Principle say about this rising trend in bond yields?

Now is the time to get insights from our flagship investor package -- The Financial Forecast Service. Just follow the link below.

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Yes, that's the modified version of a catchy phrase from a hit song.

Yet it's also a message from our analysts here at Elliott Wave International. They know that the decisions you make about your hard-earned money should not be an exercise in handwringing.

That's why they provide you with high-confidence forecasts that help you to stay relaxed about your portfolio.

Of course, no market forecaster is right all the time. But just know that your financial safety is important to us. And, EWI knows it's important to you.

Get our latest financial forecasts for key U.S. markets and the economy by following the link below.

Financial Forecast Service

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All month long, Financial Forecast Service helps you stay ahead of the waves in the U.S. markets on the timeframes that matter the most. FFS covers the stock indexes, bonds, gold, silver, the U.S. dollar, as well as market psychology and cultural trends. It is our most popular service.

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