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Why the Future Looks Precarious for This Global Technology Index

Governments always act on financial trends when it’s way too late

by Bob Stokes
Updated: December 10, 2019

Beware when government jumps on board a financial trend.

A classic Elliott Wave Theorist explains why:

When government gets into the act of speculation, the top is usually way past having occurred. Government is the ultimate crowd. ... It is always acting on the last trend, the one that is already over.

For example, the gold market has shown for decades what happens when central banks arrive late to the party.

Central banks began to sell bullion after gold lost 70% of its value from 1980 to 1999. Ironically, gold was about to begin a 10-year bull market that saw its price triple. Conversely, when gold peaked in 2011, central banks became big buyers.

History is rich with other examples of governments acting at the end of a trend. Cases-in-point include:

  • The federal government passed securities laws to prevent the 1929-1932 crash...in 1934.
  • Congress repealed the law known as Glass-Steagall in November 1999, then stocks peaked just weeks later.
  • The government imposed new mortgage industry regulations after the 2008 real estate meltdown.

So with all this in mind, let's review what's going on with the technology sector in Europe.

This chart and commentary are from our just-published December Global Market Perspective:

tech-full

The chart shows the Stoxx 600 Technology Index. After falling from March 2000 to October 2002, the index pushed to 527 last month, just 13 points shy of a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. [This] comes alongside a reliable way to gauge the maturity of Europe's technology bull: government jumping on board. The European Union just announced a €3.5 billion technology fund that will begin to flow in 2021.

The new fund plans to invest heavily in "early stage" companies, according to Bloomberg.

EWI's analysts view the European Union's aggressive speculation at this juncture as a big red flag.

Plus, they also see other signs of global market risk.

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