Europe’s Best-Performing 2019 Market: a Harsh Lesson in Complacency
Even a quick look at a chart’s Elliott waves “usually pays off in spades”
by Bob Stokes
Updated: April 02, 2020
In the world of investing, "complacency" is a potentially hazardous state of mind.
Consider that every year, September and October have often been rough on investors. But, in 2019, the S&P 500 had gained approximately 2% during each of those months.
Investors were comfortable with owning shares. Too comfortable.
That's why in November 2019, the Elliott Wave Theorist discussed the U.S. stock market and said:
Complacency is widespread now.
Yes, that complacency actually extended well beyond the borders of the U.S.
Indeed, in 2019, investors were even pouring into some of the past decades worst-performing markets. As examples: Moscow's main stock index spiked 29% and Italy's MIB index rose 28%.
Even Greece, a nation that brings to mind headlines of financial woes, had its equity market as Europe's top performer in 2019.
In fact, our January Global Market Perspective zeroed in on Greece specifically and showed this chart as an example of extreme complacency:
That complacency indeed marked a top in Greece's ASE Index. Here's an updated chart from our March Global Market Perspective, along with the commentary:
After prices briefly rose above the diagonal lines in a pattern that R.N. Elliott referred to as a "throwover," the Athens Composite reversed course and plummeted 21%. Investors punished all stock markets in February, but they positively brutalized the markets they still perceive to be riskiest. As we have said before, it's never wise to blindly jump into a market no matter how beaten down it has become. Likewise, even a quick consultation with the waves usually pays off in spades.
You see, in addition to the epic complacency, Elliott waves in the ASE Index also clearly indicated to our subscribers that a change in trend was at hand.
Now that the expected downturn has occurred, this is the time to learn what Elliott waves -- in addition to sentiment indicators -- are revealing about what's next for 40+ worldwide markets.
You can review the current issue of our comprehensive Global Market Perspective without any obligation for 30 days. The new, April issue comes out in just a few days.
Get instant risk-free access by following the link below.
Global Investors CAN Enjoy a High Level of Financial Safety
But first, you need to know how.
Now, we don't mean "shift from stocks to bonds," or "load up on gold," or even "diversify your financial assets."
Instead -- with EWI's latest global analysis -- you get clear ideas on
1) What to do, and
2) What NOT to do.
Properly position your portfolio for safety. Then, pounce on major opportunity.
Get the insights you need to know during this time of global financial volatility in our Global Market Perspective.
Learn how to get started with our 30-day, risk-free trial. Just follow the link below.
As train conductors of yesteryear used to say, “ALL aboard!” That’s a useful announcement for passengers, but not so much for investors. For example, consider investor sentiment toward gold. This chart shows you.
Some say, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are joined at the hip. Some say, Bitcoin and U.S. dollar are inversely correlated. Some say… well, watch what the editor of our Crypto Pro Service thinks about all that first.
This year, everyone from retirees to generation Z's have turned to online trading in hopes of earning money amidst economic uncertainty. But all too often, new traders focus too much on chasing opportunities at the expense of managing risk. Elliott Wave International's on-demand webinar -- "Introduction to Spotting Elliott Wave Trading Opportunities" can help you fill in this important gap. (FREE; $129 value)