Crude Oil: Will “Banking Crisis Send Prices Even Lower”? Ha!
SVB failed in March. Oil was destined to fall as early as February – here’s why
by Bob Stokes
Updated: March 20, 2023
The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank have prompted a lot of discussion about the potential of a domino effect. People are wondering "what's next?"
The financial press is linking just about every downward price move in just about every financial market to the woes in the banking sector.
As a March 15 headline noted (CNBC):
Oil tumbles to lowest level since December 2021 as banking crisis routs markets
At the time that headline published, West Texas Intermediate had fallen around 5% during that trading session.
But, first of all, if you're failing to see an immediate connection between bank failures and crude oil prices, you're not alone. I see no connection, either. What's more, Elliott Wave International was forecasting the price of crude oil to decline well before the bank failures hit the news.
On Feb. 3, our February Global Market Perspective published with this chart and commentary (Elliott wave labels are shown to subscribers):
Crude Oil's trend still looks down... [a strong Elliott wave] decline still seems like the likely path.
During the next month, oil largely traded sideways. Sometimes, Elliott wave analysis requires patience. On March 3, our March Global Market Perspective updated its crude oil analysis with this chart and commentary:
Crude Oil still looks lower. Crude has yet to step into the meat of the [strong Elliott wave decline] we're anticipating, but it still seems like the likely path.
As you probably know, the price of crude oil has moved lower since our March Global Market Perspective published.
As with all financial markets, countertrend moves will inevitably occur. Yet, Elliott wave analysis provides context and a basis for forecasting before the news; without any news.
Get our specific Elliott wave count of crude oil's chart pattern and learn what our Global Market Perspective anticipates next for this commodity by following the link below.
Get Coverage of Every Major Global Financial Asset
All in One Convenient Publication
That publication is our Global Market Perspective, a monthly publication which provides analysis -- and forecasts -- for global stock markets, cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin), energy (including crude oil), forex, metals, bonds and much more.
In 40-plus pages, you'll also get analysis of the economies in Europe, Asian-Pacific and the U.S.
Global Market Perspective also regularly provides Elliott wave analysis of specific stocks (this means timely opportunities that you don't want to miss).
Learn how you can get instant access to our Global Market Perspective by following the link below.
Lockheed's (LMT) "Waterfall Decline" from Record Highs Fits Elliott Wave "Form" to a T
On April 18, aerospace/military defense giant and Big Board listee Lockheed Martin (LMT) soared to its highest level in its 28-year history. Where "fundamental" analysis was shapeless, Elliott wave analysis saw the stock's current form, and its price future.
Forget the Fed -- Watch the Waves
The Federal Reserve, and to a lesser degree the European Central Bank, have dominated the conversation about interest rates lately. But watch our Interest Rates Pro Service analyst Ivo Zhelev apply textbook Elliott waves to forecast the price of the UK's Long Gilt -- and, by extension, UK interest rates -- without a single glance at central bank statements.
Why a U.S. Recession May Foil Economists’ Expectations
A recent survey reveals positive expectations for the economy by a group of "professional forecasters." Learn why you may not want to bet the farm on that expectation. This chart compares leading economic indicators around the time of past recessions with what's going on now.