Updated: April 21, 2017
Social mood translates into the tight race at the polls in the French election. In Europe, we're seeing bond market behavior that resembles what occurred before the credit crises in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Outlook for the British pound and currency markets following the UK's call for a snap election.
Features included in this episode:
Sunday's French Election "Makes Sense Socionomically"
European Credit Spreads Are Sending a Troubling Signal
Currencies: Here's What We're Watching
"The bond market is behaving much as it did before previous credit crises in 2008, 2010 and 2012. … On February 7, French 10-year notes sank to an 18-month low, sending French spreads over German debt (top chart) to their widest level since early 2014. Dutch and Italian spreads (middle and lower chart) have likewise widened, recently touching respective three-year highs." - March 2017 European Financial Forecast
"Libor-OIS displays a telltale five-waves-up, three-waves-down pattern since its 2015 low. ...
Considered a key barometer of credit risk during the financial crisis, Libor-OIS essentially tracks the difference between a riskier interest rate (the Overnight Indexed Swap[OIS]) and one that is virtually risk free (the London Interbank Offered Rate[Libor]). A rising line, in other words, depicts rising fears about insolvency in the banking system, while a falling line shows that those fears are abating. After bottoming in 2015, the spread more than quadrupled into the third quarter of 2016 and then fell in three waves to its current level near 23." -- April 2017 European Financial Forecast
With our Elliott Wave Weekly podcast, you'll get a roundup of the best market insights and Elliott wave analysis from interviews, presentations and webinars with our researchers and analysts at Elliott Wave International. And, best of all, you can download or listen online (it's free).
Alexandra Lienhard is the host of the popular podcast Elliott Wave Weekly. She is also the Chief Correspondent for ElliottWaveTV, a channel dedicated to providing the latest information from key Elliott Wave Analysts. Alexandra has been working with Elliott Wave International since 2009. Before that she worked for CNN in their Atlanta headquarters and on their entertainment desk in Los Angeles. Alexandra graduated from the University of Southern California with degrees in Broadcast Journalism and Business.