Related Topics

Why the Threat of Deflation is Real

“The Federal Reserve is forging ahead with its balance sheet reduction”

by Bob Stokes
Updated: December 29, 2022

I know -- inflation has been grabbing all the headlines for a good while now -- so you may wonder why the subject of deflation is relevant.

First, the definitions of inflation and deflation go beyond commonly accepted meanings.

As Robert Prechter's Last Chance to Conquer the Crash says:

Inflation is an increase in the total amount of money and credit, and deflation is a decrease in the total amount of money and credit...

The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation... is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects.

That said, let's start off with an occurrence which is quite rare. Here's a chart and commentary from the December Elliott Wave Theorist:


The chart, published by the Fed, shows that absolute M2 has been declining on a month-by-month basis for the first time in many decades, probably since the 1930s or 1940s. This trend is deflationary.

Keep in mind that M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds.

Another factor regarding deflation has to do with the Fed.

Our November Global Forecast Service showed this chart and noted:


The Federal Reserve is forging ahead with its balance sheet reduction, as the chart shows. This reduction in the central bank's assets which were paid for by money created out of thin air constitutes disinflation, and deflation (when the balance sheet is contracting on an annualized basis) will likely come by the end of the year.

So, now you see why deflation is very much on the radar screen of our Global Forecast Service, which can help you to prepare for what may be next.

Follow the link below to learn what you get with our Global Forecast Service.

Get In-Depth Coverage of Global Financial and Economic Trends

Our Global Forecast Service provides you with analysis of 50-plus financial markets -- spanning the U.S., Europe, the Asian-Pacific and more.

You also get thrice weekly near-term analysis of the region of your choice -- plus, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

The Global Forecast Service will help you to prepare for the next big moves in global stock indexes, global bonds, cryptocurrencies, metals, energy, forex and more.

Plus, you'll get Elliott Wave International's insights into major global economies.

Find out more about our Global Forecast Service by clicking on the link below.


"A Classic Bearish Reversal Sequence"

In this clip from our Commodity Pro Service, editor Jim Martens highlights a "classic" Elliott-wave setup that can lead to a high-confidence trend change. In Jim's words, "A classic bearish reversal sequence I always mention. I want to see this before I'm confident that the trend has changed." The good news, you can apply this lesson to any market!

PTPC: In Harmony with Social Mood -- The Genius, King, Godfather and Poet Laureate

Ray Charles. Elvis. James Brown. Chuck Berry. These four pop music icons need no introduction. Music historians have told their individual stories many times. But when we zoom out and look at their careers collectively, we see the indelible influence of social mood on their bouts of triumph and tumult.

Trends, Turns and Dollar Index Opportunities Since 2021

Sentiment indicators can help you anticipate huge turns in financial market trends. See exactly what Short Term Update subscribers saw at the start and the end of a two-year move in the Dollar Index.