Here’s Evidence That “the Great Property Bust is Underway”
This anticipated real estate occurrence appears to be “right on schedule”
by Bob Stokes
Updated: September 22, 2020
It's always good to get ahead of a trend and not wait until it's obvious to everyone.
Consider the subprime mortgage crisis of more than a decade ago. As you'll probably recall, it took most investors by surprise, even seasoned financial and real estate professionals.
Indeed, long before the phrase "mortgage meltdown" was capturing the headlines during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warned subscribers about the real estate market. Here's a chart and commentary from the March 2005 issue:
Back in the 1990s, The Elliott Wave Theorist designated Japan's developing deflation as the best available model for the U.S. The figure shows the plunge in commercial, residential and industrial real estate prices since the Japanese stock market peaked in 1990.... The Japanese real estate experience will be replayed in the U.S.
Of course, we all know what happened regarding the real estate market collapse in the years immediately following that analysis.
Now, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast is providing another warning. Here's a chart and commentary from the August 2020 issue:
As for the anticipated fall in property values, the Green Street Commercial Property Index shows that it is right on schedule. Home prices are still buoyant, but sales are down from the beginning of the year, and we continue to believe prices will follow.
So, it wasn't surprising to see this Sept. 18 Bloomberg news report headlined "A $700 Million Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio Is On the Brink of Collapse":
Bond investors who wagered on a group of malls... are starting to take losses.
The commercial-property bond, known as Starwood Retail Property Trust 2014-STAR, is backed by an almost $700 million defaulted loan.
Elliott Wave International's analysts expect that consumers of financial news will be seeing the word "default" a lot more.
Get more details by reading our flagship Financial Forecast Service.
Do You Know the "Key" to Market Behavior?
It's the Elliott Wave Principle.
Frost & Prechter wrote a book on the subject and it became a treasured Wall Street classic.
Here's an excerpt:
Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool: it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position within the behavioral continuum and therefore its probable ensuing path.
As our Elliott wave experts see it, the stock market now faces a critical juncture.
Tap into their latest insights now by reading our flagship investor package.
“Lizard People” and Other Conspiracies: What’s Social Mood Got to Do with It?
In a word, everything. From political conspiracies to Covid-related ones to the theories so bizarre that they seem too silly to be relevant, we live in the golden age of conspiracy theories. And while it’s easy to blame social media for their spread, we think the roots go deeper. Watch our new Mood Riff episode where the host Greg Eident explains some fascinating socionomic findings on the subject.
Investing: What You Can Learn from Mom and Pop
Sentiment indicators provide valuable information, yet they are best used in conjunction with Elliott wave analysis. Here's one time-tested indicator that has recently displayed a "big surge."
Market Trek: "No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently"
When you track historical patterns of foreign investments in U.S. equities, an important picture emerges. Watch as our Market Trek host Brian Whitmer walks you through a chart of the collective foreign buying interest going back to the 1990s and through today. (Brian's global destination is South Korea.)
by LiveHelpNow!