Here's the Consensus About a 2019 Recession
Entrenched economic opinions usually precede a trend change
by Bob Stokes
Updated: March 05, 2019
If anyone should have a handle on the prospects for a recession, it seems that person would be the head of the Federal Reserve.
With that in mind, take a look at this headline from NBC News:
Fed chief doesn't see a recession looming
You might be interested in knowing that this headline was published on March 28, 2007.
In a review of other 2007 headlines, Bernanke was hardly the only one who brushed off the probability of a recession.
Here's just one example from Forbes on Sept. 21, 2007:
[Prominent Chicago-based Real Estate Investor] On The Credit Crisis: It's Not That Bad
A month earlier, the Aug. 27 Elliott Wave Theorist had taken a different stance, with a section titled:
Economic Contraction Approaching
Right -- on Oct. 9, 2007, the DJIA registered a closing high, and the Great Recession officially began in December 2007. It lasted 18 months, ending in June 2009.
As you probably know, the Great Recession was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the early 1930s.
Why bring this up now?
Well, take a look at this March 1 CNBC headline:
Nearly 100% of corporations say there will be no US recession this year: CNBC Global CFO survey
The CFOs may turn out to be right. Then again, we've already seen that the economic outlooks of even highly prominent people can turn out to be sorely wrong.
The main point is not whether a recession will develop later this year, but the nearly unanimous positive sentiment among chief financial officers.
In the four decades that EWI's analysts have been observing financial markets and the economy, they've noticed that when a consensus of opinion forms, trends are usually on the cusp of turning.
For example, consider the stock market. Our Aug. 31 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted:
The celebration of the "Longest Bull Market in History" and the consensus that it has "Room to Run" are perfect compliments to a peak.
About a month later, on Oct. 3, the DJIA hit an all-time of 26,951.80. As you know, that was followed by some very rough market turbulence in Q4.
Yes, financial and economic optimism has re-asserted itself since the end of December, but now is the time to look ahead.
Our just-published March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reveals the results of another economic poll that has an important parallel to two key stock market years.
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