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1) First waves — As a
rough estimate, about half of first waves are part of the
"basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected
by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the
previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically
more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume
and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the
majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is
down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell
on," and they take advantage of it. The other fifty percent
of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the
previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in
1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974.
From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only
moderately retraced.
2) Second waves — Second
waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the
advancement up to that time is eroded away by the time it ends.
This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums
sink drastically in the environment of fear during second waves.
At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear
market is back to stay. Second waves often produce downside
non-confirmations and Dow Theory "buy spots," when low
volume and volatility indicate a drying up of selling pressure.
3) Third waves — Third
waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the
trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable
fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third
waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement
and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of
course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be
the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such
points invariably produce breakouts, "continuation"
gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory
trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating large
hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market,
depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks
participate in third waves. Besides the personality of
"B" waves, that of third waves produces the most
valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.
4) Fourth waves — Fourth
waves are predictable in both depth (see Lesson 11) and form,
because by alternation they should differ from the previous
second wave of the same degree.
More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for
the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and
begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a
third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first
place. This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage
for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the
fifth wave.
5) Fifth waves — Fifth
waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in
terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of
price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension,
speed of price change in the third of the fifth can
exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for
volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle
degree or larger, it usually happens below Primary degree only
if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume
as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market
dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of
long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching
maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends,
the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism of what preceded
it. During fifth advancing waves, optimism runs extremely high,
despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does
improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies. For example,
the year-end rally in 1976 was unexciting in the Dow, but it was
nevertheless a motive wave as opposed to the preceding
corrective wave advances in April, July and September, which, by
contrast, had even less influence on the secondary indexes and
the cumulative advance-decline line. As a monument to the
optimism that fifth waves can produce, the market forecasting
services polled two weeks after the conclusion of that rally
turned in the lowest percentage of "bears," 4.5%, in
the history of the recorded figures despite that fifth
wave's failure to make a new high!
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