Elliott Wave International - Market Analysis

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:35AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:35PM GMT
Last Price: 7305.3

"The index has coyly poked under the 7300 mark and the blue TL, but it appears to have been only a head-fake, as back above both of these levels the Dow has yet to commit to a top. Nevertheless, we know the price parameters that should contain the action, so the simplistic approach here it to look even higher should the 7404 level be routed from the field, or as the preferred view is calling for, looking way down on a break below 7125.

"Only a hair higher yesterday than Monday’s peak, but enough to allow wave (v) of (c) of 4 to be complete, and perhaps the entire fourth-wave countertrend advance as well. We know the Fed is meeting today with an announcement about interest rates due out at 2:15. That gives the market a lot of time to think about things, so a new high cannot be ruled out since the 7404 prior fourth-wave peak has not been tested. Leave that potential open while the index remains above 7300. Otherwise, under that level and certainly under 7281, and expect that the 7197/7125 range will be seen again. I will reiterate the importance of the 7125 level once again. It is the 2.618% proportional projection in a Fibonacci matrix that stems from the 1932 low. It is real important, so we should expect to see testing and retesting typically associated with a huge number such as this. In other words, expect to see this level tested again, and if support cannot be found, that action would tell us that wave-5 of (5) was in progress. This is what is expected, but we must see a clean break in order to confirm the action.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:32AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:32PM GMT
Last Price: 1185.40

"Despite the early bullish enthusiasm, trade has turned back down and moved back under the 1188.18 subdivide. Expectations remain that the top of wave-4 is in place. We just need further evidence to fully confirm this, and as noted that would take a break of 1155.68. In the meantime, we see that the 30-minute RSI has hooked down from the same dead-reckoning technical resistance level that has capped the technical picture within this advance. If the count of five-waves up is correct, then the diverged hook down from resistance only adds to the likelihood that a lasting peak is now in place. Also, even if the larger count is proven to be wrong, odds still favor that the 1155 area will be seen again. Staying under 1188 then dropping below 1175/1173 would add immeasurably to the likelihood of at least seeing the 1155 area again, if not that the anticipated peak is indeed in place.

"The NASDAQ got up off the canvas yesterday to produce an unexpected new high, but in reality the region tested was the original 1183/1188 target zone which included the prior fourth-wave peak. Still pressuring the upside this morning however, has taken the action above the 1188 mark. Yet there are clearly sustainability issues at work here that caution about a sudden turn back down, so the wave-4 designation remains. Nevertheless, even a casual observer can see that trade wrapped itself around the important 1155.68 structural level in recognition, which if we did not know it was important before we certainly know it now. Staying above 1155 keeps the pressure on the north side with any further gains a good indication that the count not only for this leg up is wrong, but also the count down into the last pivot low as well. My sense is that this action is a bull trap that is about to slam shut. Any trade cleanly back under 1155.68 would confirm this to be the case. For today, the first action we need to see is a slip from the 1188.18 subdivide. That action would be the initial indication that wave (v) of (c) may be complete, and thus a larger five-wave move up. This is what is expected followed by a return to the 1155 area. If indeed this action is seen what the market does from there should reveal the direction of the next meaningful to significant move.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:27AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:27PM GMT
Last Price: 770.94

If we more closely scrutinize the initial wave action up within wave (v), a case can be made that the pattern started with a couple of 1s and 2s. If this is the case, instead on an irregular b-wave to form one large second-wave, then a new high could still be seen before five-waves up are in place within wave (v). Since no trendlines have been broken and the 780.12 mark has not been touched, and the fact that there remains this morning’s gap still open at yesterday’s peak, just be aware that even initial confirming action that a lasting peak is in place has yet to be revealed. Back under 768.68 the red TL is currently around 765. Make it commit.

"Trade remains under yesterday’s peak and has come back to the 768.68 subdivide. While this level is only a minor subdivide on the long-term matrix, 768.63 was the low in 2002, and the TL cuts through right here as well, so there is plenty of “stuff” here to attract, and repeal prices. Technicals reveal this action is right on TL support, so a slip from here would only add to the topping picture already noted. The red uptrend line is at 763.70, so a crack under there would be another indication that the immediate to very near-term trend has turned back down, and most likely pointed to another showdown with the 750.09 key subdivide.

"780.12 was the peak of the previous fourth-wave within wave-3 down, which was Monday’s upper extreme target for a wave-4 peak. While that level may still be seen the existing 778.12 peak would work just as well. Point is, if indeed this advance is only wave-4 then trade should not extend appreciably beyond 780.12 or the prior count is wrong. The diverged technical condition at yesterday’s new peak along with other technical trend-following patterns suggest a pivot back down is likely. Add the count that suggests a full five-waves up from the pivot low, and even if the irregular (b) wave count is wrong at the recent lows, a return to the important 750.09 subdivide is likely to be seen in any event. 750 remains the most important proportional structural level in this region, and only an impulsive drop back under this price would confirm that wave-4 was complete, and that the next leg down was in progress. With the Fed’s huddled in their smoke filled room until 2:15 today, perhaps that is when traders will begin selling the fact.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 11:05AM ET / Mar 18 2009 3:05PM GMT
Last Price: 7301.8

The index has coyly poked under the 7300 mark and the blue TL, but it appears to have been only a head-fake, as back above both of these levels the Dow has yet to commit to a top. Nevertheless, we know the price parameters that should contain the action, so the simplistic approach here it to look even higher should the 7404 level be routed from the field, or as the preferred view is calling for, looking way down on a break below 7125.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:48AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:48PM GMT
Last Price: 1181.51

Despite the early bullish enthusiasm, trade has turned back down and moved back under the 1188.18 subdivide. Expectations remain that the top of wave-4 is in place. We just need further evidence to fully confirm this, and as noted that would take a break of 1155.68. In the meantime, we see that the 30-minute RSI has hooked down from the same dead-reckoning technical resistance level that has capped the technical picture within this advance. If the count of five-waves up is correct, then the diverged hook down from resistance only adds to the likelihood that a lasting peak is now in place. Also, even if the larger count is proven to be wrong, odds still favor that the 1155 area will be seen again. Staying under 1188 then dropping below 1175/1173 would add immeasurably to the likelihood of at least seeing the 1155 area again, if not that the anticipated peak is indeed in place.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:36AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:36PM GMT
Last Price: 769.25

Trade remains under yesterday’s peak and has come back to the 768.68 subdivide. While this level is only a minor subdivide on the long-term matrix, 768.63 was the low in 2002, and the TL cuts through right here as well, so there is plenty of “stuff” here to attract, and repeal prices. Technicals reveal this action is right on TL support, so a slip from here would only add to the topping picture already noted. The red uptrend line is at 763.70, so a crack under there would be another indication that the immediate to very near-term trend has turned back down, and most likely pointed to another showdown with the 750.09 key subdivide.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 10:14AM ET / Mar 18 2009 2:14PM GMT
Last Price: 7309.4

Only a hair higher yesterday than Monday’s peak, but enough to allow wave (v) of (c) of 4 to be complete, and perhaps the entire fourth-wave countertrend advance as well. We know the Fed is meeting today with an announcement about interest rates due out at 2:15. That gives the market a lot of time to think about things, so a new high cannot be ruled out since the 7404 prior fourth-wave peak has not been tested. Leave that potential open while the index remains above 7300. Otherwise, under that level and certainly under 7281, and expect that the 7197/7125 range will be seen again. I will reiterate the importance of the 7125 level once again. It is the 2.618% proportional projection in a Fibonacci matrix that stems from the 1932 low. It is real important, so we should expect to see testing and retesting typically associated with a huge number such as this. In other words, expect to see this level tested again, and if support cannot be found, that action would tell us that wave-5 of (5) was in progress. This is what is expected, but we must see a clean break in order to confirm the action.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 9:59AM ET / Mar 18 2009 1:59PM GMT
Last Price: 1192.16

The NASDAQ got up off the canvas yesterday to produce an unexpected new high, but in reality the region tested was the original 1183/1188 target zone which included the prior fourth-wave peak. Still pressuring the upside this morning however, has taken the action above the 1188 mark. Yet there are clearly sustainability issues at work here that caution about a sudden turn back down, so the wave-4 designation remains. Nevertheless, even a casual observer can see that trade wrapped itself around the important 1155.68 structural level in recognition, which if we did not know it was important before we certainly know it now. Staying above 1155 keeps the pressure on the north side with any further gains a good indication that the count not only for this leg up is wrong, but also the count down into the last pivot low as well. My sense is that this action is a bull trap that is about to slam shut. Any trade cleanly back under 1155.68 would confirm this to be the case. For today, the first action we need to see is a slip from the 1188.18 subdivide. That action would be the initial indication that wave (v) of (c) may be complete, and thus a larger five-wave move up. This is what is expected followed by a return to the 1155 area. If indeed this action is seen what the market does from there should reveal the direction of the next meaningful to significant move.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 9:42AM ET / Mar 18 2009 1:42PM GMT
Last Price: 772.01

780.12 was the peak of the previous fourth-wave within wave-3 down, which was Monday’s upper extreme target for a wave-4 peak. While that level may still be seen the existing 778.12 peak would work just as well. Point is, if indeed this advance is only wave-4 then trade should not extend appreciably beyond 780.12 or the prior count is wrong. The diverged technical condition at yesterday’s new peak along with other technical trend-following patterns suggest a pivot back down is likely. Add the count that suggests a full five-waves up from the pivot low, and even if the irregular (b) wave count is wrong at the recent lows, a return to the important 750.09 subdivide is likely to be seen in any event. 750 remains the most important proportional structural level in this region, and only an impulsive drop back under this price would confirm that wave-4 was complete, and that the next leg down was in progress. With the Fed’s huddled in their smoke filled room until 2:15 today, perhaps that is when traders will begin selling the fact.

US Stocks Overview (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 18 2009 9:27AM ET / Mar 18 2009 1:27PM GMT

Market Overview: Good morning. While a new high was not expected for this leg up yesterday, the fact that support was maintained around key structural levels in all three markets left that option open. Yet while this action did make the intra-day a bit of a frustrating affair, the original extreme projections where tested. Since overnight trade in the futures has backed away from yesterday’s peaks, and combined with a more mature count and technical picture, the stage is set for a showdown with expectations elicited from the Fed announcement on interest rates due out at 2:15 this afternoon. The call remains for a turn back down from the peak of a completed wave-4, although as the intra-day outlook has repeatedly stressed, to confirm the anticipated pivotal turn the same key levels that have been discussed in each market will have to be broken under. These levels are 750 in the S&P, 7125 in the Dow, and 1155 in the NASDAQ. As previously pointed out, the act of pushing beyond these levels was a bullish statement, so it will only be a break back under these levels that removes that potential and turns the focus back down toward new lows to complete wave (5) in wav-5. Staying above these key levels would warn that the larger count is wrong. Yet at this time the wave action up from the recent pivot low counts best as a five, so even if the irregular (b) wave count is wrong at the recent lows, trade is expected to return to these key levels, and it is from there that the decision concerning the near to short-term trend will most likely be made. A resumption of the decline is what is still anticipated.

Tom Prindaville
intraday-feedback@elliottwave.com

LIVE Training Opportunities: London, England - Miami, Florida - Sydney, Australia - San Francisco, California. Book your seat at a live 2-day trading course with EWI's top instructors. "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market" has been such a big hit that we are taking it on a world tour. Get more details here: http://www.elliottwave.com/education/how-to-trade-in-a-bear-market/default.aspx?code=ann

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:47PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:47PM GMT
Last Price: 7362.2

In line with the other markets, the count has been altered to suggest a fifth-wave is still needed before wave-4 is complete. The blue TL cuts through around 7427 straight up, and with the still untested 7404 fourth-wave prior peak just above the last peak, these are good targets to be looking for the end of wave (v) of 4.

"Back above 7300 alters the immediate view of the action, while the strength in the NASDAQ cautions about whether or not we are working with the proper wave count. The added blue TL just overhead is currently around 7436 straight up. The higher red one stems from much higher and touched the wave (4) peak. We would obviously have to rethink the count if a new high is seen, but that aside, these trendlines if encountered will present a barrier that should be tough to push beyond if indeed further upside is the game. Remain patient here, for unless the Dow is under 7125 the uptrend cannot be said to have run its course, while above this level continues to allow the bulls to roam.

"With the Dow back under 7300 and while that situation exists, the outlook will expect the index to return to the 7197/7125 range. Otherwise, above this level again and we wait for further clarification of the immediate count.

"The internals did need at least one more small wave higher. Keep in mind that we are not interested in taking any action unless the 7125 level is cleanly penetrated.

"Up to test price and technical resistance may have completed wave-ii. The internals are ragged, which could allow this immediate reaction to be only a small fourth-wave within wave-c. Either way, the next meaningful action should be a turn down to revisit the 7197/7125 area.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

"The count and technical indications suggest that wave-4 is complete. What we need to see now is confirmation in terms of price, and that would look like an impulsive break of the 7125 very important long-term projection. The 7197.5 level, which was the 2002 low, has already been penetrated this morning, yet the move down from yesterday’s peak may be about to end a small five-wave decline, potentially ending wave (i) down. If this is the case, then the break of the 7125 level may not be seen right away, as a second-wave bounce could delay that action. In any case, unless 7125 is broken under, confirmation that wave-4 was complete would not have occurred, so a patient approach is still warranted for the conservative minded.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:41PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:41PM GMT
Last Price: 1178.73

A new high into the original resistance range makes the revised count legit. Yet, it keeps the outlook expecting the top of wave-4, OR some other designation to denote a pivotal peak. Again, the downside potential should not be a part of our thinking process unless the 1155.68 level is cleanly broken under.

"Even more so than in the S&P where I just noted difficulty with this action, this is not the kind of action that one would expect to see if indeed an important pivotal peak was already in place. The 15-minute chart now shows an alternate count that is allowing for a fifth-wave up to the 1183/1188 area. Whether this is right or wrong we will only know for sure if trade turns-tail and drops back below the 1155 area in an impulsive manner. In the meantime, there has been no definitive indication that the uptrend has ended, so we remain patient awhile longer.

"Leave it to the NASDAQ to nearly always press projections to the limit, as we just witnessed near the prior peak. Nevertheless, trade has turned back down, and regardless of what we think this market is doing, unless prices drop back under the 1155 area in an impulsive manner we will have no solid evidence that the recent uptrend has changed.

"The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.

"A bit deep for a second second-wave, which does leave the count open in that regard. Yet, unless the prior count is wrong a turn back down to at least the 1155 area should be the next order of business.

"Trade has moved back above the 1155.68 level perhaps in a second 1-2 off yesterday’s peak. This morning’s gap is at 1145.44 almost at yesterday’s low. Closing the gap and making a new low thereafter would be a good indication that the trend will continue down. However, convincingly letting go of the 1155.68 first remains the objective.

"Of the three markets the NASDAQ was the only one to have dropped back below its important structural level in this region of 1155.68 yesterday. Yet, first thing this morning trade is right back at it. This action looks like typical retesting of the 1155 area and perhaps the broken trendlines just above there around 1158 and the red one even higher around 1164. The important thing to note is that the count suggests that wave-4 is complete, yet it will require letting go completely of the 1155 area in order to confirm that the count is correct. Down is what is expected, so let’s see if the action can deliver. Trade under 1135 would be a solid confirming action that the downtrend had resumed.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:32PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:32PM GMT
Last Price: 772.08

The 15-minute chart now sports an alternate count that would allow for a new high. Are we going to see one? Hard to say, as the move up is not purely impulsive, nor is it clearly corrective at this juncture. The nearby near to short-term TL has been more deliberately challenged on this immediate leg up, so that may have done it for today’s strength. The 30-minute RSI has finally come back to touch the dead-reckoning level, so perhaps a turn right here is what is on tap. However, at the risk of being monotonously repetitive, the outlook will only begin looking back down once the 750 subdivide is broken under in an impulsive manner.

"We are not seeing the kind of wave action one would expect if prices had reached there upside goal. Whether it is a new found optimism in the Government, or if there is now a view that the Fed god is about to save us all, I have no idea. What I do know is that trade remains above the 750 level and that tells me that odds are just as good that the trend will continue to push to a new high, as fall to new depths. As before, staying above 750 remains a bullish indication. Yet, the count and other expectations suggests this enthusiasm will be short lived. Unless prices are heading south in a hurry and under the 750 mark, looking down will be a tenuous view.

"Trade has turned down away from resistance indicating that wave-ii is likely complete. Staying under yesterday’s peak in one thing, but the real test remains back at the 750.09 level.

"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.

"Slow action resulting in no resolution concerning the 750 level, tells us that the market has gone into Fed watch mode. What this means is that trade will likely play the shell game around or above the 750 area forcing the average trader to guess what is happening. For us, unless trade is under 750 and moving down in an impulsive manner, we just grab another cup and relax.

"Hardly a surprise to see trade bounce from the 750 mark. This internals suggest a small five-wave decline may now be in place comprising wave-i. Typical swing failure targets for wave-ii would be into the 761/765 area, although second-waves are notorious for retracing further to test the 78.6% level, which in this case is at 769.27, right back at the 768. Just be clear that until the 750 level is broken under and left behind the jury will be out concerning the next meaningful trend. Down is what is expected, but as noted, persistence in holding support atop 750.09 would be a rather bullish statement.

"The count suggests that wave-4 of (5) is complete. Trade merely needs to step off the 750.09 important subdivide and stay under it in order to confirm that to be the case. This is what should be seen if the count is correct. Persistent support around the 750 area however, would caution that the recent bullishness had not run its course, so it is important for the break of 750 to occur in order to confidently pursue the south side potential. With the Fed announcement set for tomorrow there may be a reluctance leave the 750 area. Be patient, as remaining above 750 is every bit as bullish as dropping below this level is bearish. The count predicts down, but we must force a clear commitment here one way or the other to be sure.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 3:19PM ET / Mar 17 2009 7:19PM GMT
Last Price: 7343.5

Back above 7300 alters the immediate view of the action, while the strength in the NASDAQ cautions about whether or not we are working with the proper wave count. The added blue TL just overhead is currently around 7436 straight up. The higher red one stems from much higher and touched the wave (4) peak. We would obviously have to rethink the count if a new high is seen, but that aside, these trendlines if encountered will present a barrier that should be tough to push beyond if indeed further upside is the game. Remain patient here, for unless the Dow is under 7125 the uptrend cannot be said to have run its course, while above this level continues to allow the bulls to roam.

"The internals did need at least one more small wave higher. Keep in mind that we are not interested in taking any action unless the 7125 level is cleanly penetrated.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:58PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:58PM GMT
Last Price: 1173.46

Even more so than in the S&P where I just noted difficulty with this action, this is not the kind of action that one would expect to see if indeed an important pivotal peak was already in place. The 15-minute chart now shows an alternate count that is allowing for a fifth-wave up to the 1183/1188 area. Whether this is right or wrong we will only know for sure if trade turns-tail and drops back below the 1155 area in an impulsive manner. In the meantime, there has been no definitive indication that the uptrend has ended, so we remain patient awhile longer.

"The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:50PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:50PM GMT
Last Price: 767.12

We are not seeing the kind of wave action one would expect if prices had reached there upside goal. Whether it is a new found optimism in the Government, or if there is now a view that the Fed god is about to save us all, I have no idea. What I do know is that trade remains above the 750 level and that tells me that odds are just as good that the trend will continue to push to a new high, as fall to new depths. As before, staying above 750 remains a bullish indication. Yet, the count and other expectations suggests this enthusiasm will be short lived. Unless prices are heading south in a hurry and under the 750 mark, looking down will be a tenuous view.

"Trade has turned down away from resistance indicating that wave-ii is likely complete. Staying under yesterday’s peak in one thing, but the real test remains back at the 750.09 level.

"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:21PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:21PM GMT
Last Price: 7297.7

With the Dow back under 7300 and while that situation exists, the outlook will expect the index to return to the 7197/7125 range. Otherwise, above this level again and we wait for further clarification of the immediate count.

"The internals did need at least one more small wave higher. Keep in mind that we are not interested in taking any action unless the 7125 level is cleanly penetrated.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:13PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:13PM GMT
Last Price: 1168.69

Leave it to the NASDAQ to nearly always press projections to the limit, as we just witnessed near the prior peak. Nevertheless, trade has turned back down, and regardless of what we think this market is doing, unless prices drop back under the 1155 area in an impulsive manner we will have no solid evidence that the recent uptrend has changed.

"The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 2:08PM ET / Mar 17 2009 6:08PM GMT
Last Price: 763.59

Trade has turned down away from resistance indicating that wave-ii is likely complete. Staying under yesterday’s peak in one thing, but the real test remains back at the 750.09 level.

"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 1:41PM ET / Mar 17 2009 5:41PM GMT
Last Price: 7321.1

The internals did need at least one more small wave higher. Keep in mind that we are not interested in taking any action unless the 7125 level is cleanly penetrated.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 1:37PM ET / Mar 17 2009 5:37PM GMT
Last Price: 1171.56

The count has been adjusted with this action. The buck must stop here or the larger count is wrong.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 1:31PM ET / Mar 17 2009 5:31PM GMT
Last Price: 767.28

"....trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 1:14PM ET / Mar 17 2009 5:14PM GMT
Last Price: 7283.9

Up to test price and technical resistance may have completed wave-ii. The internals are ragged, which could allow this immediate reaction to be only a small fourth-wave within wave-c. Either way, the next meaningful action should be a turn down to revisit the 7197/7125 area.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 12:58PM ET / Mar 17 2009 4:58PM GMT
Last Price: 1169.68

A bit deep for a second second-wave, which does leave the count open in that regard. Yet, unless the prior count is wrong a turn back down to at least the 1155 area should be the next order of business.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 12:48PM ET / Mar 17 2009 4:48PM GMT
Last Price: 766.43

It appears there is life after all, as trade has moved higher in what counts as wave-ii off the existing peak. 768/769 is the resistance area to beat, otherwise expect trade to turn back down toward the 750 level once again.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 12:03PM ET / Mar 17 2009 4:03PM GMT
Last Price: 7250.3

A small change to the internals for this suspected corrective action, but there is no real change to the outlook.

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 11:59AM ET / Mar 17 2009 3:59PM GMT
Last Price: 1163.42

It's shaping up to be a long day of potentially limited movement in front of the Fed announcement set for tomorrow afternoon.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 11:55AM ET / Mar 17 2009 3:55PM GMT
Last Price: 758.30

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 11:24AM ET / Mar 17 2009 3:24PM GMT
Last Price: 7222.6

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 11:20AM ET / Mar 17 2009 3:20PM GMT
Last Price: 1161.87

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 11:15AM ET / Mar 17 2009 3:15PM GMT
Last Price: 758.26

Slow action resulting in no resolution concerning the 750 level, tells us that the market has gone into Fed watch mode. What this means is that trade will likely play the shell game around or above the 750 area forcing the average trader to guess what is happening. For us, unless trade is under 750 and moving down in an impulsive manner, we just grab another cup and relax.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:46AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:46PM GMT
Last Price: 7221.2

"The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:41AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:41PM GMT
Last Price: 1159.13

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:40AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:40PM GMT
Last Price: 756.12

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:19AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:19PM GMT
Last Price: 7214.7

The index has bounced in what is likely wave-ii. Important resistance is at 7300/7308. All other parameters remains in place.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:16AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:16PM GMT
Last Price: 1160.71

Trade has moved back above the 1155.68 level perhaps in a second 1-2 off yesterday’s peak. This morning’s gap is at 1145.44 almost at yesterday’s low. Closing the gap and making a new low thereafter would be a good indication that the trend will continue down. However, convincingly letting go of the 1155.68 first remains the objective.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 10:02AM ET / Mar 17 2009 2:02PM GMT
Last Price: 753.93

Hardly a surprise to see trade bounce from the 750 mark. This internals suggest a small five-wave decline may now be in place comprising wave-i. Typical swing failure targets for wave-ii would be into the 761/765 area, although second-waves are notorious for retracing further to test the 78.6% level, which in this case is at 769.27, right back at the 768. Just be clear that until the 750 level is broken under and left behind the jury will be out concerning the next meaningful trend. Down is what is expected, but as noted, persistence in holding support atop 750.09 would be a rather bullish statement.

DJI (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 9:50AM ET / Mar 17 2009 1:50PM GMT
Last Price: 7186.4

The count and technical indications suggest that wave-4 is complete. What we need to see now is confirmation in terms of price, and that would look like an impulsive break of the 7125 very important long-term projection. The 7197.5 level, which was the 2002 low, has already been penetrated this morning, yet the move down from yesterday’s peak may be about to end a small five-wave decline, potentially ending wave (i) down. If this is the case, then the break of the 7125 level may not be seen right away, as a second-wave bounce could delay that action. In any case, unless 7125 is broken under, confirmation that wave-4 was complete would not have occurred, so a patient approach is still warranted for the conservative minded.

NASDAQ (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 9:42AM ET / Mar 17 2009 1:42PM GMT
Last Price: 1155.82

Of the three markets the NASDAQ was the only one to have dropped back below its important structural level in this region of 1155.68 yesterday. Yet, first thing this morning trade is right back at it. This action looks like typical retesting of the 1155 area and perhaps the broken trendlines just above there around 1158 and the red one even higher around 1164. The important thing to note is that the count suggests that wave-4 is complete, yet it will require letting go completely of the 1155 area in order to confirm that the count is correct. Down is what is expected, so let’s see if the action can deliver. Trade under 1135 would be a solid confirming action that the downtrend had resumed.

S&P 500 (Intraday)
Posted On: Mar 17 2009 9:34AM ET / Mar 17 2009 1:34PM GMT
Last Price: 754.84

The count suggests that wave-4 of (5) is complete. Trade merely needs to step off the 750.09 important subdivide and stay under it in order to confirm that to be the case. This is what should be seen if the count is correct. Persistent support around the 750 area however, would caution that the recent bullishness had not run its course, so it is important for the break of 750 to occur in order to confidently pursue the south side potential. With the Fed announcement set for tomorrow there may be a reluctance leave the 750 area. Be patient, as remaining above 750 is every bit as bullish as dropping below this level is bearish. The count predicts down, but we must force a clear commitment here one way or the other to be sure.