Elliott Wave International - Market Analysis

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NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 7 2008 9:38AM ET / Aug 7 2008 1:38PM GMT
Last Price: 120.74

No real change. . . . I'm anticipating a healthy corrective rebound before the market turns down in earnest. Resistance above the 121.78 overnight high is at 122.17, 123.16 and 128.60-128.87. Nearby support is at 119.82 and 118.66. I'll need to reassess things if 117.11 caves in anytime soon. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Natural Gas (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 7 2008 9:37AM ET / Aug 7 2008 1:37PM GMT
Last Price: 8.830

No real change. . . . I'm looking for impulsive upside price action (still lacking) and more importantly, trade above Monday's 9.600 high to validate the idea that the wave (b) advance is in progress. Trend line resistance sits just below the 9.930 overnight high. Resistance above Wednesday's 8.977 high is at 9.117. Support below the 8.780 overnight low is at 8.721 and 8.552. If wave v is still subdividing, support below Tuesday's 8.335 low is at 8.305 with a possible downside target zone at a very deep (for my count) 7.838-7.813. The market must maintain trade above last December's 7.420 wave (X) low for my count to remain valid. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 7 2008 8:57AM ET / Aug 7 2008 12:57PM GMT
Last Price: 120.97

The rally past Wednesday's 120.49 high opens the possibility that wave (i) ended at Wednesday's 117.11 low. I'm anticipating a healthy corrective rebound before the market turns down in earnest. Resistance above the 121.78 overnight high is at 122.17, 123.16 and 128.60-128.87. Nearby support is clustered between 120.50 and 119.85. I'll need to reassess things if 117.11 caves in anytime soon. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Natural Gas (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 7 2008 8:57AM ET / Aug 7 2008 12:57PM GMT
Last Price: 8.856

There's not much to add at this point. I'm looking for impulsive upside price action (still lacking) and more importantly, trade above Monday's 9.600 high to validate the idea that the wave (b) advance is in progress. Trend line resistance now coincides with the 9.930 overnight high. Resistance above Wednesday's 8.977 high is at 9.117. Support below the 8.780 overnight low is at 8.721 and 8.552. If wave v is still subdividing, support below Tuesday's 8.335 low is at 8.305 with a possible downside target zone at a very deep (for my count) 7.838-7.813. The market must maintain trade above last December's 7.420 wave (X) low for my count to remain valid. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 1:48PM ET / Aug 6 2008 5:48PM GMT
Last Price: 118.65

No real change. . . . I can't rule out further near-term losses, but I continue to suspect that the market is at or very near an interim low (ditto across the complex). I'll give the upside and the idea that wave (i) is complete the benefit of the doubt if the 120.49 intraday high is eclipsed. Nearby support is at 117.71, which should hold for the time being if the bottom is in. If it's not, support below the 117.11 intraday low is at 113.45 and 110.07 with a possible downside target zone for wave v at 113.50-113.33. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Natural Gas (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 1:45PM ET / Aug 6 2008 5:45PM GMT
Last Price: 8.851

If Tuesday's 8.335 low is indeed the end of wave (a), the market should (ideally) stay above 8.620 until the 8.977 intraday high is eclipsed. The bottom line is that I'm looking for impulsive upside price action (still lacking) and more importantly, trade above Monday's 9.600 high to validate the idea that the wave (b) advance is in progress. Resistance above 8.977 is at 9.117 with trendline resistance serval cents below. Nearby support is at 8.796-8.756. If wave v is still subdividing, support below 8.335 is at 8.305 and a possible downside target zone is a very deep (for my count) 7.838-7.813. The market must maintain trade above last December's 7.420 wave (X) low for my count to remain valid. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 12:55PM ET / Aug 6 2008 4:55PM GMT
Last Price: 118.90

I can't rule out further near-term losses, but I'm not holding my breath. The market should be at or very near an interim low (ditto across the complex). I'll give the upside and the idea that wave (i) is complete the benefit of the doubt if the 120.49 intraday high is eclipsed. Nearby support is at 117.71, which should hold if the bottom is in. If it's not, support below the 117.11 intraday low is at 113.45 and 110.07 with a possible downside target zone for wave v at 113.50-113.33. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Natural Gas (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 12:47PM ET / Aug 6 2008 4:47PM GMT
Last Price: 8.767

No change. . . . Tuesday's 8.335 low fits as the end of wave (a) and impulsive upside price action (lacking) and more importantly, trade above Monday's 9.600 high would validate the idea that the wave (b) advance is indeed in progress. Nearby resistance is at 9.790. Resistance above Tuesday's 8.958 high is at 8.967 and 9.117. Nearby support is at 8.552-8.546. If wave v is still subdividing, support below 8.335 is at 8.305 and a possible downside target zone is a very deep (for my count) 7.838-7.813. The market must maintain trade above last December's 7.420 wave (X) low for my count to remain valid. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 11:46AM ET / Aug 6 2008 3:46PM GMT
Last Price: 117.50

Further near-term losses still seem likely, but if my count is on target, a bottom should be close at hand (ditto across the complex). Nearby resistance comes in around 118.15-118.78. At this point, I'll give the upside and the idea that wave (i) is complete the benefit of the doubt if the 120.49 intraday high is eclipsed. Support below the 117.11 intraday low is at 113.45 and 110.07 with a possible downside target zone for wave v at 113.50-113.33. . . . Steve Craig

NYMEX Natural Gas (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 11:40AM ET / Aug 6 2008 3:40PM GMT
Last Price: 8.660

NYMEX Crude (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 6 2008 10:46AM ET / Aug 6 2008 2:46PM GMT
Last Price: 119.77

No real change. . . . I continue to suspect that the market is close to an interim low. If my count is on target, wave (i) of the wave A decline should terminate below Tuesday's 118.00 low. Nearby resistance is at the 120.49 intraday high. I'll probably give the upside and the idea that wave (i) ended with a slight truncation at the 118.10 overnight low the benefit of the doubt if Tuesday's 121.23 high is eclipsed and look for trade above last Friday's 128.60 high for confirmation. Support below 118.00 is at 113.45 and 110.07 with a possible downside target zone for wave v at 113.50-113.33. . . . Steve Craig

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