Elliott Wave International - Market Analysis

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Today is Thursday, July 31, 2008	Return to My EWI

Market Insight (Intraday)
Posted On: Jul 31 2008 8:55AM ET / Jul 31 2008 12:55PM GMT

The dollar sold off in response to the data released at the bottom of the hour. This chart shows that EUR$ has rallied in an apparent five waves, retracing 61.8% of wave five from the prior chart. In the event of a setback we can look for support in the 1.5600 area. And gains much above the reaction high (1.5684 so far) should clear the way to the 1.5750 area.

Resistance basis the Index rests at 73.28 and basis $CHF resistance lies at 1.0486. Basis cable support at 1.9782 must hold.

More dollar weakness ahead.

Jim Martens

USDJPY (Intraday)
Posted On: Jul 31 2008 8:39AM ET / Jul 31 2008 12:39PM GMT
Last Price: 107.79

[unclear, topping?]
Key levels: 107.29

I'll take a stab at the short-term count. Wednesday I pointed to the three-wave setback from 108.29 to 107.70 as reason to remain bull and look for a new high. $JPY registered that new high but did so in three waves. It's possible the correction from 108.29 is extending, taking the shape of a flat that will end just below 107.70.

The key level appears to be 107.29. Barring a break of that former low we'll call current weakness corrective. But, we are wary given the recent "wedging" rise.

Jim Martens

EURUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Jul 31 2008 8:23AM ET / Jul 31 2008 12:23PM GMT
Last Price: 1.5614

[Bottoming, higher]
Key levels: 1.5565? and 1.5520

With just three waves up from 1.5523 we can't confirm the bullish reversal. But higher prices is exactly what we expect. lacking a five-wave rally off the low a rally through 1.5675 would offer the next best bit of evidence that the bottom is in place. Next resistance would lie in the 1.5750 area which includes the upper end of the prior fourth wave and the lower end of the Fibo target area.

To stay immediately bearish EUR$ should hold above 1.5565 and the rise from 1.5523 should extend into five waves.

Jim Martens

Market Insight (Intraday)
Posted On: Jul 31 2008 8:19AM ET / Jul 31 2008 12:19PM GMT

The calendar for Thursday:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Jul 26 Week

8:30a.m. 2Q Advance GDP

8:30a.m. 2Q Employment Cost Index

9:45a.m. Jul Chicago PMI: Expected

10:00a.m. Jun Help-Wanted Index

10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Jul 12

There has been very little change this morning, particularly in the five-wave dollar rally that dominates the short-term charts. As I always say, regardless of the larger trend at least a correction should follow a five-wave movement. In this case that means a setback to the 72.50 area. There lies the lower end of the prior fourth wave and the upper end of the Fibo target range.

Drilling down the setback from the high is so far in just three waves. Further weakness, this time below 73.07 would virtually confirm the bearish reversal.

Jim Martens

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