Inside Bob Prechter's
November 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist ...
How to Identify the
Continuing and Looming
Deflationary Forces
Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it.
That's the essence of contrarian analysis, yet a contrarian approach is never enough to craft a successful market forecast. A high-confidence forecast demands more -- like a terminal Elliott wave pattern, intense volume readings, screaming advance/decline ratios, and more.
Such was the case in July 2007, just after the Dow Industrials made a nominal all-time high. That's when Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist said this: "Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position." Three months and a marginal new high later, the stock market began a bear market that erased more than a decade's worth of gains.
In February 2009, Prechter closed the short recommendation -- an astonishing 800 downside S&P points later. As for why he changed his stance then, his February Theorist made it clear:
 The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late."
You know what followed. We're now in mid-November; the move up from March became the biggest rally in more than five years. Yet the facts are these: Gold is the only commodity to reach an all-time high, the Dow Industrials the only stock index to see a new closing high on the year.
A seasoned technical analyst knows this is a classic "non-confirmation" -- and Bob Prechter is a lot more than just seasoned. Here's what he says in his brand-new November 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist:
Only the bluest of the blue chip markets in both the stock and the commodity sectors – i.e. the DJIA and gold – made significant new highs, while their lesser counterparts have so far all failed to confirm. This type of divergence in trends is the most traditional of all technical conditions warning of distribution."
The "experts" apparently think that a few months of financial chaos in late 2008-early 2009 was as bad as it's going to get. They'd have you believe (hope?) that those few months is all it took to reverse a mania that was decades in the making.
But our technical indicators aren't based on hope. They give us the facts and the evidence. That's why we ignored the experts in July 2007 and February 2009, and why we ignore them now. Don't allow the recovery hype to put your portfolio at risk. You can read a market forecast that truly is independent.
Subscribe now, and you get more than this brand-new issue; you also get instant free access to Prechter's most recent, still-prescient Theorist archives.
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