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Bearish? You Bet.
See What We See & You Will Be Too
Dear reader,
A week after the Dow's all-time high in October 2007, Robert Prechter went on Bloomberg to describe "extremes that exceed 1929 or 1987...these are the harbingers of a change to the downside for the stock market."
A week before the major low in March 2009, he went on CNBC to say "it's getting crowded on the bear side...we've been in a short position for a long time, I recommended that people get out of it." S&P futures traders were a record 98% bears (only 2% bulls) on the very day Prechter went on TV to call for a major turn to the upside. In other words, people were telling you to sell at the worst possible time.
History shows that at market extremes many of the most opinioned bears and bulls surrender to popular opinion. The market then moves violently against popular opinion.
We have a track record of standing our ground while those around us are surrendering their opinion.
And we're doing it again.
Generally speaking, economists and money managers are typically one-note bulls. They always give you a rosy forecast. But look how much you lost in your real estate investments, and how much you are still losing, thanks to them. Look how much you have lost in your stocks since 1999, too. But did they ever tell you to sell? No, never. And they still won't say it. On the contrary, now that the stock market has more than doubled, they're telling you that it's safe to load the boat. That's what they said in 1999 and 2006, throwing you under the bus both times.
Today everyone who was bearish on stocks in March 2009 is back to being bullish. Consider these recent headlines:
- Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views – Bloomberg
- Stop the Presses, Dr. Doom is Turning Bullish – Bloomberg
- BlackRock...Says Investors Should Be 100% Equities – Bloomberg
- Iran Anxiety No Match for Central Bankers Sedating Investors With Cheap Cash – Bloomberg
- ...Nasdaq Bull Market Leaves Bearish Outlook Behind – Bloomberg
- ...Low Volume Means Bull Run May Last – Bloomberg
- Warren Buffet: Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds – Bloomberg
- Enter the Bull – Barron’s
- You Have To Be In It To Win It – MarketWatch
Who's left? We are.
That's right. The financial media say bears are extinct or in hiding. But not here at Elliott Wave International! We are back on our mountain peak, standing tall and roaring. We are not shy about it. We are not apologetic. We are not tentative.
We have 300 years of market history and 50 years of market indicators on our side. Everything else is a waste of time. And we can tell you: The stock market today is overleveraged, over-owned and overvalued. That is why, at this time, we are unequivocal bears.
We don't care if the market grinds a bit higher this year. It is just lulling the optimists further into complacency, so they can siren-call their followers to self-destruction, again. But right now we recommend a whole different stance. Yes, we expect to identify another good market bottom when it arrives, but now is not it.
Wake up!
1.) We did not have a "Great Recession" that is over; we are in a depression
2.) We did not just start a multi-decade bull market; we are near the end of a bear market rally
3.) We are not in the comforting arms of endless "liquidity" from a generous Fed; we are on the precipice of a looming worldwide credit crisis.
Do you think this language is too strong? We think it's conservative. We save what we really think for our subscribers.
If you can't handle this kind of talk, exit now. We'll be happy to have you join us later, when the S&P is having 40-point down days.
But if you are that rare individual who is ahead of the crowd, who thinks there is something wrong with the Pollyanna picture, then you have found your home: Elliott Wave International, which, for now at least, is the home of the bears.
Someday we will again be the home of the bulls. And we'll be just as lonely as we are today. But not until our work says it's time.
Until then: Are you safe? Are you confident? Did you know that you can make money much faster in a bear market than a bull market? Do you know what to do? If not, join us and find out, while the opportunity is still here.
This discussion is mostly about the stock market.
What about currencies?
What about precious metals?
What about commodities?
What about Treasury bonds?
What about cash and T-bills?
Yes, we are bullish about some things. Find out what. Find out why. Join us today.
Here's your special offer ...
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"Following your institutional analysis, the Short Term Update, the Financial Forecast, and the Theorist, I'm more convinced than I ever have been about anything in my 13-year career in the financial markets that we're going to drop soon and hard. Meanwhile, the sell-side pollyannas keep putting a positive spin on everything. Some will say that I'm just looking for a "preacher" who will tell me what I want to hear. Time will tell. At least I am confident that your research is high caliber and unbiased. Thank you so much for your good work."
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– J.G.
"I love to see when Elliott Wave refers to past predictions that have come to pass. Could someone write an article on the word SURPRISE. I see it all the time in the Wall Street Journal. It is used in reference to earnings, job reports, government economists, etc. I am usually thinking 'Hey, I remember reading about that in Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.'"
– P.L.
"I'm a subscriber to the Financial Forecast Service and I find your analysis of the U.S. stock markets, bonds, the dollar and precious metals to be of the highest caliber. You have achieved a level of expertise that is unparalleled in the industry and your analysis definitely needs to be an integral part of any serious traders' decision-making process."
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"I subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, and the Short Term Update (all part of the Financial Forecast Service). By following EWI forecasts and diligently managing my positions, I have recovered in 3 months all that I had lost during the bear market. Even better, I now have the confidence and financial security such that I don't have to work anymore. Actually, I do work ... my proud occupation is that of a self-employed Elliottician!"
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