Inside the November 2009 European Financial
Forecast ...
Market Peaks are Rife
with Hope
 Is the [UK] economy improving, or not? Is the recession over, or not? No one seems to know...
"Fortunately for traders, the market could not care less about the UK recession. Economic trends lag stocks and are therefore useless in forecasting. The same is true for earnings reports, employment numbers and nearly every other bit of economic minutiae that bombards traders daily. 'News' is written and reported ex post, merely rationalizing what the market has already done."
That's an opening quote from the November European Financial Forecast. Most investors stay glued to headlines, yet EFF subscribers know that news does not create market trends. Hopeful investors buy stocks, fearful investors sell them. The trick is to know how investors collectively feel. And that's exactly what wave patterns in market charts show you!
Read our latest forecasts on pp 2-3 of the November European Financial Forecast. You also get these unique insights:
- Market Psychology -- The Daily Sentiment Index recently surpassed 90% bulls in the FTSE 100, Eurostoxx, CAC 40 and DAX, but the latest charts show a divergence between market prices and sentiment readings. Find out what this important development likely means for European stocks in the next few weeks (pp. 3-4).
- The Economy & Deflation -- In May, The European Financial Forecast illustrated deflation’s stranglehold at the retail level in Britain: That's when the UK Retail Price Index had gone negative for the first time in 50 years. It's still there; prices are still falling. By the looks of it, the Consumer Price Index is not far behind. But for those who have followed EWI's advice, deflation is anything but gloomy: The further prices drop, the more the value of cash rises! Read more in the section "Don’t Get Hyper About Inflation" (p. 6).
- Save, Save, Save -- The September European Financial Forecast presented a wealth of parallels between the European and Japanese deflationary experiences. The resemblance is obviously ongoing as this is the first time in more than 30 years that UK households have out-saved their Japanese counterparts. Belt-tightening is in fashion; read what we think it means for Europe's economy (pp. 7-8)
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