Inside the July 2009 European Financial Forecast
...
Stocks Finish a "Predictable"
Rally
On April 3, the April 2009 European Financial Forecast
wrote:
[T]he strength of the rally and a completed five-wave
pattern argue that the March 9 bottom will stand awhile.
The patterns in the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are nearly identical
to the Euro Stoxx 50. Minimum upside targets are 4400
and 3150, respectively.
After the rally of the past two months fulfilled those early
April forecasts, the June European Financial Forecast
warned that the market's turn lower "could arrive at
any moment." On June 2nd, the DJ Eurostoxx index indeed
reversed and lost 8%, to date...
So, are European stocks just taking a "summer break,"
or are lower lows in store in the weeks ahead? That's really
the most important question here, and the July European
Financial Forecast shows you 8 charts on pages 2-4 to
answer this question head-on.
There is more:
• Stocks & Currencies -- European equity
traders should keep a close eye on the currency markets in
the months ahead. The British Pound, Polish Zloty, Hungarian
Forint and Czech Koruna have all topped and bottomed with
European equities lately. Now their Elliott wave patterns
suggest strongly that the prevailing currency trends in Europe
are again nearing important turns. P. 6 explains this important
relationship in detail.
• The Economy & Deflation -- Just like
the Federal Reserve in the U.S., the Bank of England has been
battling deflation by buying government bonds in order to
keep yields and interest rates low -- and thus stimulate lending
and borrowing. Yet yields on long-term gilts have been rising,
not falling. Pages 7-8 explain what that implies going forward.
• Cultural Trends -- Why are "fringe,
populist and hard-right politicians" getting more popular
in Europe? Hint: It has to do with the trend in the stock
market, a.k.a. social mood. Learn what the long-term trend
in Europe's social mood portends for the future of European
politics on pages 8 and 9.
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