The European Financial Forecast

Inside the July 2009 European Financial Forecast ...

Stocks Finish a "Predictable" Rally

On April 3, the April 2009 European Financial Forecast wrote:

[T]he strength of the rally and a completed five-wave pattern argue that the March 9 bottom will stand awhile. The patterns in the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are nearly identical to the Euro Stoxx 50. Minimum upside targets are 4400 and 3150, respectively.

After the rally of the past two months fulfilled those early April forecasts, the June European Financial Forecast warned that the market's turn lower "could arrive at any moment." On June 2nd, the DJ Eurostoxx index indeed reversed and lost 8%, to date...

So, are European stocks just taking a "summer break," or are lower lows in store in the weeks ahead? That's really the most important question here, and the July European Financial Forecast shows you 8 charts on pages 2-4 to answer this question head-on.

There is more:

Stocks & Currencies -- European equity traders should keep a close eye on the currency markets in the months ahead. The British Pound, Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint and Czech Koruna have all topped and bottomed with European equities lately. Now their Elliott wave patterns suggest strongly that the prevailing currency trends in Europe are again nearing important turns. P. 6 explains this important relationship in detail.

The Economy & Deflation -- Just like the Federal Reserve in the U.S., the Bank of England has been battling deflation by buying government bonds in order to keep yields and interest rates low -- and thus stimulate lending and borrowing. Yet yields on long-term gilts have been rising, not falling. Pages 7-8 explain what that implies going forward.

Cultural Trends -- Why are "fringe, populist and hard-right politicians" getting more popular in Europe? Hint: It has to do with the trend in the stock market, a.k.a. social mood. Learn what the long-term trend in Europe's social mood portends for the future of European politics on pages 8 and 9.

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