72 Results

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet?

Updated: October 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...

What Does "Desperate Complacency" Look Like? See For Yourself...

Updated: September 14, 2017

The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.

Believe Your Own Eyes: Central Banks FOLLOW the Market

Updated: September 14, 2017

The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.

Why Speculators Should Keep a Close Eye on the Bond Market

Updated: September 8, 2017

Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.

President Trump and ... the Yield Curve?

Updated: August 25, 2017

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Jackson (W)Hole Lotta Hype

Updated: August 24, 2017

This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...

Why the Bond Market Should Be Watching Tesla

Updated: August 22, 2017

Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...

Bank of Canada Hike: Surprised? You shouldn't be.

Updated: July 13, 2017

Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.

This is Why Municipal Bonds Are No "Day at the Beach"

Updated: July 5, 2017

Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.

Fed Week: One and Done?

Updated: June 13, 2017

Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.

Municipal Bonds: Still "on Track for a Train Wreck"

Updated: June 12, 2017

The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.

Why Renewed Danger Lurks in the U.S. Leveraged Loan Market

Updated: June 7, 2017

In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.

Higher Interest Rates: "Good" for the U.S. Dollar?

Updated: June 6, 2017

Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.

Debt, Politics, and Russia: A "Spike" Dead Ahead?

Updated: May 17, 2017

Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.

Bonds: What Hedge Funds' "Record Reversal" Tells You

Updated: May 17, 2017

Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.

Recall This Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened

Updated: April 25, 2017

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

European Credit Spreads Are Sending a Troubling Signal

Updated: April 19, 2017

Widening yield spreads mean investors are growing fearful about the future. In Europe, we're seeing bond market behavior that resembles what occurred before the credit crises in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Take a look at these two charts.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Bond Traders And Sentiment Reversal: Here's What It Looks Like

Updated: March 23, 2017

Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.

Here's the Real Reason the Fed is Raising Rates

Updated: March 22, 2017

Financial commentators parse every word the Fed utters, hoping to catch a clue about the central bank's next policy decision. But who really determines the direction of rates?

Why the Fed's Rate Hike Means Nothing to the Stock Market

Updated: March 17, 2017

The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.

JGB Yields: From ALL Time Low to 1-Year High

Updated: March 1, 2017

Back in July 2016, Japanese government bond (JGB) yields stood at their lowest levels ever amidst a supposed runaway "negative feedback loop." So, why then did the yields start rising to hit a one-year high in late January 2017? The answer might shock you.

What Could Follow the End of the 70-Year Rate Cycle?

Updated: February 22, 2017

Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.

U.S. Markets: The BIG story everyone missed in 2016 and what it means for you now

Updated: February 14, 2017

In an interview with ElliottWaveTV, Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg talks about the key story from 2016 that most investors missed. Learn what he's watching closely right now.

A Day of Reckoning for U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Updated: January 25, 2017

Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.

Why You Should Be Cautious About Credit Ratings

Updated: January 17, 2017

If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

Updated: January 9, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

We're in a New Climate of Rising Interest Rates Around the World

Updated: December 20, 2016

In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.

We're in a New Climate of Rising Interest Rates Around the World

Updated: December 20, 2016

In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.

Look Who's Leading the Way on Interest Rates (It's NOT the Fed)

Updated: December 16, 2016

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.

Worst Plunge in 26 Years: This Bear is GLOBAL

Updated: December 13, 2016

During November 2016, this global index fell four percent. For investment grade debt, that's all but unheard of -- the deepest in twenty-six years (the history of the index).

New GMP Preview: 3 Killer Charts, 2 Fast Looks at Politics

Updated: December 5, 2016

Global Market Perspective (GMP) delivers monthly analysis and forecasts for the world's major financial markets, straight to your computer. Watch this preview of our December issue.

Violent Bond Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective

Updated: December 2, 2016

In the face of historic optimism, which attended the July high in 30-year Treasury bonds, our June Elliott Wave Theorist said, "Bonds are on their last leg." In November, global bond investors lost $1.7 trillion. Sentiment has shifted to deep pessimism toward bonds but keep an eye on the wave count.

Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story

Updated: November 15, 2016

This massive move happened to the granddaddy of "safe," "stable securities." The bond market hasn't seen anything like it in decades. Yet the upheaval simply hasn't gotten the coverage you'd expect...

Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump?

Updated: November 9, 2016

On November 9, U.S. bond investors realized there's something worse than the uncertainty leading up to the 2016 presidential election; namely, the uncertainty following it! Is there a way to gain insight into the market's trend? Absolutely.

Global Sentiment Ahead of US Election

Updated: November 8, 2016

Nine of our top market strategists offer a sneak peek of sentiment in their markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Debt Man’s Curve: This Is Where the Money Goes When Asset Values Fall

Updated: November 1, 2016

Yes the presidential election is crazy -- but no more crazy or unprecedented than the market behavior regarding Sovereign Debt...

Check Out this Explosive Setup in U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: October 28, 2016

The selloff in global bonds has been blamed on speculation that central banks will raise rates. Some observers point to economic data. Yet, we saw the handwriting on the wall four months ago. See how a combination of Elliott waves and sentiment measures can be highly useful to investors.

See What Treasury Bonds Did AFTER "Five Up" Had Finished

Updated: October 18, 2016

See it for yourself: A major reversal in Treasury Bonds, as forecast. Prices then went lower in the 3-plus months since. And, the pattern now is as clear as it was then...

These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors

Updated: October 12, 2016

In a throwback to the last credit mania, bond buyers are once again embracing high risk in their search for yield. Beware of these two debt instruments.

Japan's Investors Make a Sudden Flight FROM Safety as Bond Yields Rise

Updated: September 29, 2016

In July 2016, Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield plunged to an all-time record low. Many saw the Brexit bombshell plus further BOJ stimulus as sealing yields’ downward trend. And yet – yields turned UP in a powerful rally to a 7-month high. This is the real story as to why. 

Are You Ready to "Lose Money SAFELY"?

Updated: September 23, 2016

Today, there are over 10 trillion dollars' worth of so-called negative yield bonds in the world. These bonds don't pay you a dime; no -- you, the buyer, pay the issuer. In other words, with a negative yield bond, you are guaranteed to lose money. Crazy? You could say that again. But, because bonds are "guaranteed investments," there is one interesting caveat...

The Fed Follows the Market Then. And Then. And Now.

Updated: September 20, 2016

Most economists and most of Wall Street and most of the financial media believe that central banks set interest rates. Problem is, that notion is incorrect. And all the relevant evidence shows that it's incorrect...

Why the Fed's Rate Decisions Are Irrelevant

Updated: September 19, 2016

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

Bond Traders Chase Rally to the Bitter End

Updated: September 13, 2016

About three months ago, hedge fund managers were the most bullish on bonds they've been in 10 years. Yet, our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warned a "trend reversal is nigh." Just four trading days later, on July 8, bond futures made their closing high. Take a look at these two charts.

Treasury Bonds: Large Speculators Binge, As Commercials Purge

Updated: August 23, 2016

Treasury Bonds are nobody's idea of a great action movie, yet that's sort of the point. But ... the extremes we see in Treasuries today are as extreme as this market gets.

How "Sheer Lunacy" Took Over Europe's Bond Market

Updated: August 3, 2016

Welcome to the world of half-century loans at 1% and a 100-year note at a yield of 2.35%. One of our Global Market Perspective analysts says the European bond market has entered a realm of "sheer lunacy." These two charts help to explain.

Every Financial Crash Has Had This Setup

Updated: July 22, 2016

Every financial crash has been preceded by the same setup: an unsustainable build-up of credit. Rising rates will mean corporations will have a difficult time servicing their debt. An inevitable day of reckoning will follow. This chart serves as a warning.

Ask Puerto Ricans Why Government Debt Matters

Updated: June 30, 2016

Many people view government debt as a problem that is far removed from their daily lives. When debt becomes overwhelming, the lives of citizens are directly affected in many critical ways. Consider Puerto Rico, which now faces another debt default.

Complacent Bond Investors in for Rude Awakening

Updated: June 23, 2016

The rally in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been over-believed. For example, hedge funds were recently at a record net-long position in futures and options contracts relative to open interest. Our analysis reveals prices are at a critical juncture. Take a look at these two charts.

Municipal Bonds: What is the Next Shoe to Drop?

Updated: June 2, 2016

Many investors continue to pour money into municipal bond funds even after Puerto Rico's municipal bond default. We believe debt-market complacency will soon be met with regret. Cities and states face severe financial struggles even as the stock market remains elevated. Imagine what the next downturn will bring.

Japan: Down the Rabbit Hole of Negative Rates

Updated: April 20, 2016

The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.

Are These High-Yield Hand Grenades Set to Implode?

Updated: March 28, 2016

Bloomberg describes a contingent convertible bond as a "high-yield investment with a hand grenade attached." Learn why, and also take a look at a chart of dollar-denominated financial bonds that shows a five-waves up pattern.

Why Can't the Fed "Move" Commodities?

Updated: March 23, 2016

According to mainstream wisdom, commodity prices revolve around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. But historical evidence proves there's a much larger force at the center of the commodity universe.

Bond Traders Telegraph a Message About 30-Year Treasuries

Updated: February 8, 2016

Financial markets have a way of turning just when the majority of investors are convinced that the established trend will continue. But make sure a market's chart pattern also supports a turn. This market appears ripe with opportunity.

Japan: Negative Rates Redux

Updated: January 29, 2016

On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.

Two Strong Signs of a Big Financial Top?

Updated: January 25, 2016

A review of past market tops shows that many of them were accompanied by the same warning signs. We highlight two of them. Plus, a chart shows a trap that's about to snap shut on stocks.

Junk Bond Bust: The "Fling" Is Over

Updated: December 29, 2015

Over the last year, investors' appetite for risk has gone from red hot to lukewarm, culminating in the recent junk bond bust. Get the real story of the reversal here...

Gold: A Perspective on the Extreme Pessimism

Updated: December 21, 2015

Many speculators believe that the price of gold is headed down. See a chart that shows what happened with gold during other times when sentiment was extremely negative. Another chart addresses the widespread belief that rising interest rates are bearish for gold.

The Euro vs. the Fed: What We Think Really Happened

Updated: December 18, 2015

Elliott waves allow you to see before the news which way the collective psychology of market participants is leaning. If traders feel bullish… 

Debt Troubles Expand: Distressed Bond Issuers Traded Jumps 110%

Updated: December 17, 2015

The debt loads of companies and governments should be easy to service given the exceptionally low interest rates. But did you know that global bond default rates have hit their highest level since 2009? Learn why the next credit crunch could be worse than 2007-2009.

Junk Bond Selloff: The Stress Gets MORE Stressful

Updated: December 17, 2015

chart of the day | Here we have the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Spread. It's one of those indicators you don't see enough of in the financial media, even though it's a lot more predictive and relevant to investors, versus all of this week's hoopla about the Federal Reserve.

Big Risk in the US Bond Market

Updated: November 9, 2015

Bond prices have been trending lower (yields rising), and investors appear vulnerable to even greater volatility. Learn why selling pressure could accelerate.

Japanese Bonds: Yield of Dreams?

Updated: November 6, 2015

With the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond circling .3%, some say the JGB is actually facing "extinction." They also say the bond's fate depends on the BOJ. We disagree on both accounts!

Debt Man's Curve: Where Money Goes When Asset Values Fall

Updated: November 3, 2015

chart of the day | This chart shows sovereign debt along a yield curve, which is to say, the rates of interest governments pay to borrow money for 10 years from investors. It's sort of a snapshot of global Treasury Note yields.

Does the Fed Know What to Do?

Updated: October 30, 2015

Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Will the Fed even be around in 10 years?

Do Interest Rates follow the Federal Reserve, Or, Do Interest Rates Lead & the Fed follows?

Updated: October 28, 2015

What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.

Time to Question U.S. Treasuries as a "Safe-Haven"?

Updated: October 9, 2015

China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds.

A Reliable Indicator Portends a 2015 Stock Market Decline

Updated: October 2, 2015

In December 2014, we discussed an indicator that appeared to carry "the same message as it did in 2007." The Dow Industrials topped just five months later. Now, the stress level is even more intense.

Deflation Returns to Haunt the Eurozone

Updated: October 1, 2015

When ECB president Mario Draghi launched the first-ever Euro-QE in March 2015, it was hailed as the "death of deflation." But now, after six months, deflation is back in the eurozone...

Look What's Beating Stocks and Bonds So Far in 2015

Updated: September 30, 2015

Conservative investors have been punished with exceptionally low interest rates. But at least they haven't lost money. Learn about a good way to defend your portfolio against rising rates.

Does the Federal Reserve Drive the Stock Market Trend?

Updated: February 25, 2015

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
72 Results