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U.S. Stocks and "The Point of Maximum Financial Risk"

Bob Stokes — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 16:15:00

The May Elliott Wave Theorist states that "Investors have no memory of prior mood extremes. They always forget how they felt at such times, so they are free to feel the same way again and again." Learn how this truth relates to the current market.

Fast Money in a Thin Market: Stocks Record First 3-Day Losing Streak of 2013

Bob Stokes — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 12:45:00

2013 started with a stock market bang. Many investors who had opted for the sidelines since the March 2009 low started pouring their money into stock mutual funds. Optimism permeated Wall Street. But it was fear that dominated on June 12. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at its second-highest level of the year. Are the stock indexes on the verge of a trend change?

Why Brilliant People Often Fail in Financial Markets

Bob Stokes — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 17:15:00

If intelligence translated to investment success, then most professors and scientists would be wealthy. If anyone ever had "brains," it was Sir Isaac Newton. He lost $1 million in the South Sea Company bubble. Those who fail in financial markets often assume that cold reason governs market prices. But the opposite is true.

What You Can Learn by Studying Financial Manias of the Past 400 Years

Bob Stokes — Wed, 05 Jun 2013 17:15:00

In 1982 Robert Prechter called for a strong bull market. Most everyone else was mired in the memory of the 1970s, and expected little if anything from stocks. At the same time that Prechter called for a big bull market, he also said the most severe bear market in US history would follow. Has that epic trend change already occurred?

Bullish Sentiment Makes National Front Page News

Bob Stokes — Fri, 31 May 2013 17:00:00

Paul Montgomery's magazine cover sentiment indicator applies to various financial assets: stocks, gold, real estate, oil, bonds, etc. Sentiment indicators provide useful insights into the market. But you also need to know about the market's technical indicators. Both are sending an urgent message.

Pop Goes the Bull Market: Are Coca-Cola and the Dow Going Flat?

Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall — Thu, 30 May 2013 17:30:00

(From the May 2013 Financial Forecast) In December 1999, [The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast] made the case for a long-term peak in Coca-Cola stock based on its historic role as a bull-market beverage: “Things really do go better with Coke. Unless, of course, the thing is a bear market. At such times, things don’t go so well, not even for Coke.”

Why You Should Expect a Change in the Stock Market

Bob Stokes — Fri, 24 May 2013 16:30:00

Our individual patterns of thought come under a host of strong influences, especially the collective psychology of society. And the social mood that has taken the stock market to recent new highs has been unfolding for several years. But, history also shows that dramatic changes in investor psychology can come quickly.

S&P 500 Reverses Sharply in Intraday Trading

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 22 May 2013 19:15:00

On May 22, U.S. stocks rose at the open but then reversed sharply lower. The move coincided with congressional testimony by the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. "Coincided," because the market's mood, visible via Elliott wave patterns, was suggesting a reversal even before Mr. Bernanke's comments. See for yourself...

An Intraday in the Life of the Dow

Nico Isaac — Wed, 22 May 2013 18:30:00

About the time the stock market opened on Wednesday, remarks from two Fed officials denied that the central bank was "ready to consider tapering its bond buying"... And the Dow Industrials rallied 100-plus points in the first hour of trading. At 10:24 am, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before a Congressional Joint Economic Committee and said: "Premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery."

See Intraday Market Trends from an Elliott Wave Perspective

Bob Stokes — Tue, 21 May 2013 16:15:00

If you're following the stock market's trend mostly between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. eastern time, let Tom Prindaville be your guide. As EWI's Senior U.S. Equity Analyst, he provides subscribers with frequent intraday updates from an Elliott Wave perspective. No one can guarantee a specific outcome -- yet Tom often sees Elliott Wave patterns develop as they've been forecast. When he identifies an intraday impulsive wave, he alerts subscribers immediately. Tom does the Elliott analysis for you.

Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 17 May 2013 16:15:00

To decipher the meaning of economic reports like consumer confidence is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data are supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Stocks don't fall after good reports, or rise after bad ones...do they? Well, take a look at these financial news headlines and guess when they were published...

Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some

Bob Stokes — Wed, 15 May 2013 14:30:00

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929

Bob Stokes — Mon, 13 May 2013 17:00:00

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"? One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

The Most Efficient Path of the Stock Market Unfolds at Large Degree

Bob Stokes — Wed, 08 May 2013 12:45:00

In the 1920s, R.N. Elliott was a successful author, consultant and accountant. But late in that decade he contracted a debilitating and near-fatal illness that left him bedridden. He chose to pass the time by studying the stock market's price patterns. His career had required meticulous attention to detail, and in turn he applied that rigor to his study of the market. Learn about his fascinating discovery and how it's relevant today.

Stock Market High-Flyers Often Crash to Earth

Bob Stokes — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 18:00:00

No one ever tells you that in the history of this world, far more stocks have eventually gone to zero than have survived to the current day...

Even Major News Triggers Only Short-Term Market Reactions

Bob Stokes — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 17:00:00

Shortly after 1 p.m. on April 23, a phony posting on Twitter claimed that explosions occurred at the White House and that the President was injured. The Dow Industrials tumbled over 100 points in just a couple of minutes. When traders learned the tweet was false, the Dow just as quickly resumed the trend it had been on beforehand. But whether a given news item is phony or factual is irrelevant. Look at two charts to see how the market reacted to a major historical event.

The Smell of Tulips is in the Air on Wall Street

Bob Stokes — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 16:45:00

Tulip prices in Holland skyrocketed in the 1630s. A farmhouse was reportedly purchased with three bulbs in 1633. But the peak of Tulip Mania came in the winter of 1636-37 when someone refused to pay top dollar. Is the U.S. stock market a modern day parallel? Learn why the day may be near when one seller and one buyer agree that prices are too high.

Triple Top: The S&P 500 Goes Nowhere for 13 Years

Bob Stokes — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 16:45:00

Technical analysts describe a triple top formation as a textbook "reversal" pattern. After the third peak, the downward price trend that follows may be steep and break below the two prior lows. If that break occurs, prices could descend into free-fall territory. In his March 2013 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter refers to "the 13-year triple top ... from 2000 to 2013." What's more, this pattern does not stand alone.

U.S. Markets and the Transition from Greed to Fear

Bob Stokes — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 17:45:00

Measuring market greed versus market fear can provide a useful tool for gauging investor sentiment. EWI looks at investor sentiment as well as the market's momentum and price pattern. Altogether, they provide a valuable perspective on whether greed or fear will prevail in the future. Robert Prechter offers his perspective on the market's current juncture.

Be On the Right Side of Risk-On Markets When the Herd Turns Risk-Off

Gary Grimes — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 14:30:00

A growing number of investors – especially institutional investors – are positioning their money based on an observation The Elliott Wave Theorist published back in 2002. Asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, metals and energy are more correlated than ever (the US dollar is inversely correlated). As far as we know, the Theorist was the first investment publication to talk about this phenomenon, likewise the first to give it a name ...