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Crude Oil May Head Back Above $100 If...

Nico Isaac — Thu, 13 Jun 2013 13:00:00

Wednesday June 12 quickly turned into a cooler-talking day for crude oil investors, mostly because the market completely ignored the bearish fundamental backdrop. "Crude does not have any real reason to turn around and rally," reported one news source. Yet, rally is exactly what crude prices did.

Natural Gas (and UNG): Will Summer Heat Cool off Prices Even More?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 12 Jun 2013 17:45:00

On June 12, crude oil hit a three-week high. Yet another key member of the energy complex, natural gas, did the opposite and fell to a two-month low. The drop was blamed on expectation of "a bigger-than-average increase in U.S. stockpiles," which "doesn’t bode well for higher prices in the future.” Looking at the trend over the past few weeks, it's easy to understand such bearish opinions...

Is the Natural Gas Boom Only Just Beginning?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 31 May 2013 16:15:00

Over the past year, the natural gas market has gone from Tony Stark to Iron Man. Meaning, from the April 2012 low natgas prices have skyrocketed 120% to the loftiest level in two years. Which raises the question: Is this only the start of the natural gas boom?

Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear

Nico Isaac — Wed, 15 May 2013 15:00:00

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 08 May 2013 16:30:00

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."

Crude Oil's Near Term Trend: Does Every Millisecond Count?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 02 May 2013 11:00:00

When it comes to trading commodity markets, time is not a sensitive issue, it's the sensitive issue. That truth was reinforced by a recent Wall Street Journal article titled "High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole." That loophole is the time lag between when high-speed computer traders receive order confirmations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, vs.when the public receives confirmations -- specifically, a lag of "one-to-ten milliseconds" (a thousand milliseconds equals one second.)

Why Are Crude Oil Prices Dropping? Not Why Many People Think

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:30:00

Gold wasn't the only market that fell out of bed Monday morning (April 15). Crude oil also fell -- as low as $86.06 a barrel over the past couple of trading days. If you've read opinions as to why oil is getting cheaper, a common reason cited by the pundits is that oil reflects the state of the global economy. Interesting. If that is true, then what you see in these charts must be false.

Crude Oil Analysis Without the 800-pound Swinging Cyprus Gorilla on its Back

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:45:00

According to the mainstream experts, crude oil prices are "struggling to find direction due to the confusing position taken by authorities in reaction to Cyprus." Yet if you look elsewhere regarding crude's price trend -- like a basic chart of crude like the one below -- you can easily see that the market has had no problem finding a direction...

Impulsive Price Action Could Be on Tap for the US Oil Exchange Traded Fund

Nico Isaac — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 17:30:00

My personal favorite Elliott wave pattern, of all 13 known patterns, is the third wave. To witness a wave 3 in action is “a powerful sight to see.” The first chart below of natural gas comes from EWI's January 2011 Global Market Perspective. It showed prices gearing up for a third-of-a-third wave decline to $2 -- a level the market had not seen in over a decade.

Here's What Has to Happen to Confirm an Uptrend In Crude Oil

Nico Isaac — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 18:15:00

The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been all over the news, but few observers are ready to make bold declarations about that country's political future. Mainstream financial experts, however, have not hesitated to assess what impact Chavez's demise will have on crude oil prices. After all, Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, earning its nickname "Saudi Arabia of South America."

Navigating Crude Oil Requires EPS: Elliott (wave) Positioning System

Nico Isaac — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 19:15:00

On Feb. 12 EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig recorded a special video take on the near-term Elliott wave pattern unfolding in crude oil. There, Steve plugged a bullish wave count into his EPS -- the Elliott wave Positioning System. The "map" (i.e. chart) and directions appeared.

Market Insight: Crude Rises, But Other Members of Energy Complex Fall

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 18:30:00

"West Texas Intermediate oil rose in New York as U.S. durable goods and housing data exceeded forecasts, signs an economic rebound may spur fuel demand," said a February 27 news headline. Technically, yes, WTI oil did close higher for the day: up 13 cents. But for a market that can move $3-$4 a day...

This Isn't the First We've Heard of a Natural Gas Supply Glut

Nico Isaac — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 17:45:00

Natural gas is a volatile commodity in more ways than one – including its price swings in the futures market. So, it goes without saying that energy traders and investors want analysis that helps navigate the sudden turns in natural gas prices. And, ever since the first fossil fuels were extracted from the earth, mainstream experts seem to know only one way to think about near-term price trends ...

Crude Oil: What's Behind February 15 Sell-Off?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:00:00

Saying that crude oil fell on February 5 "after U.S. industrial production unexpectedly shrank" is a perfectly logical explanation for the reason behind crude's February 15 sell-off. However, Elliott wave patterns in oil charts warned of the decline the day before.

Have Crude Oil Prices Surpassed Key Bearish Resistance?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 17:15:00

On Jan. 29, crude prices rallied to their highest level in four months. But as the recent slew of news stories below makes plain, the mainstream outlook failed the "consistency" test regarding what would drive crude's near-term trend. One side said political unrest in the Middle East is bullish for crude. While another news source said political unrest is a non-event.

Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures Experience Possible "Failed 5th Wave"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 19:15:00

On January 28, crude oil futures popped to an intraday high of $96.81 a barrel. Then, just as quickly, the price fell to an intraday low of $95.47. The fast rally/decline sequence could have been a possible "truncated fifth [wave] following a triangle." Here's what that is...

Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 22:15:00

"Oil is emerging from an Elliott wave triangle, accompanied by momentum divergence," says EWI's Chief Energy Analyst and editor of the firm's Energy Specialty Service, Steve Craig.

Are the Days of the Crude Oil Rally Numbered?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 18:15:00

Sometimes it's great to have a boatload of choices at your disposal. I like nothing more than to be able to walk into my favorite pizza joint and order a no cheese, thin-crust pie with white sauce, half ham, half pineapple... and hold the basil. But when it comes to financial market analysis, having a multitude of price forecasts can put you at a serious disadvantage. Take, for instance, the recent news stories regarding crude oil. On Jan. 18, crude oil prices soared to their highest level in four months. That was the easy part.

Market Insight: Crude Oil

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 21:15:00

In crude oil, there's been a lot of up and down lately, but not a whole lot of up OR down. The market remains "uncommitted" to a trend. Here's what the chart of crude looks like since the start of the year...

Market Insight: Crude Oil

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 17:15:00

The year started slowly for crude oil futures. As you can see on this chart (Elliott wave labels not shown), trading has been range-bound between $91 and $92 a barrel.