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An Analyst’s Best Friend? A Contracting Triangle

Nico Isaac — Fri, 14 Jun 2013 18:00:00

Everyone knows: If you want the best meal in a fancy restaurant, ask what the chef's favorite dish is. That's what you order. Likewise, if you want to make the most of near-term Elliott wave patterns, just ask which of the 13 known patterns is EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy’s favorite wave formation is. Then you wait for it to appear on the “plate” of a market’s price chart.

Is the Live Cattle Bear Market Coming to an End?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 04 Jun 2013 11:00:00

In late 2012, live cattle prices were rallying to new contract highs. And, according to the mainstream pundits, the 'fundamentals' would keep prices moving due north. Rather than driving north, however, live cattle prices turned south in a precipitous slide to the one-year lows we see today.

The Next Phase in Commodity Prices: Think BIG

Nico Isaac — Tue, 28 May 2013 17:00:00

In his just-released May 2013 Monthly Futures Junctures video, EWI's chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy reveals that an across-the-board, multi-decade Elliott wave pattern has set the commodities stage for "big moves to the downside, followed by even bigger moves back to the upside."

Get in Front of the Live Cattle Herd

Nico Isaac — Thu, 23 May 2013 11:45:00

Why a Triangle Marks the Spot of Opportunity in Cocoa

Nico Isaac — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:00:00

School may be winding down for summer break, but the Elliott Wave class is still very much in session. And on the syllabus for today's lesson is the Elliott wave pattern known as the contracting triangle. Here's where you'll want to start taking notes. First, there's the basic definition and diagram of the pattern.Then, there's two real-world examples of the contracting triangle signaling dramatic price moves in sugar and coffee.

Soybean Prices: Sticking Out Their Neck(line)

Nico Isaac — Fri, 10 May 2013 18:00:00

You've probably never heard the words "Mint Chocolate Chip" and "Head-and-Shoulders pattern" uttered in (nearly) the same breath. But for EWI's senior commodities analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy, those apparently unrelated phrases do indeed have something in common -- namely, they are two of Jeffrey's favorite things in the whole wide world:

Is Copper's Bear Market Over?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 17:00:00

April 2013 has seen copper prices go from low to... lower still. In the week ending April 19, prices experienced their largest percentage decline in 16 months to land solidly in Grizzly Acres. See: "Copper Slides Into Bear Market" a recent blunt-truth headline in the Wall Street Journal.

Commodities Overview: The Wheels of Change Are in Motion

Nico Isaac — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 18:30:00

In March 2013, a Geneva-based research study concluded that commodity markets are driven by "self-reinforcing mechanisms," and not "by external information." The Elliott Wave Principle identifies that "self-reinforcing mechanism" as investor psychology, which unfolds in clear and observable Elliott wave patterns on market price charts. When it comes to anticipating those patterns and forecasting the trend in key commodities, nobody is more qualified than EWI’s senior analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor, Jeffrey Kennedy.

Sugar Futures Fall, and Elliott Waves Are There to "Catch" Them

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 21:00:00

If you come to our website often, you have seen many examples of the waves' ability to forecast the markets. But what makes that possible?

Fundamental analysis failed to anticipate the March-April selloff in cotton

Nico Isaac — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 17:30:00

In mid-March 2013, cotton prices had enjoyed a three-month, 18% rally to their highest level in a year. And according to the fundamental experts, the "externals" in the cotton market would continue to propel prices higher. Instead, cotton prices embarked on a sharp selloff to the one-month prices lows we see today.

The ABCs of Identifying the Start of Orange Juice's Bear Market

Nico Isaac — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 17:30:00

Can Elliott wave analysis identify meaningful price turns in commodity markets before they unfold? Yes -- if you have the patience and discipline to await the development of a familiar Elliott wave pattern on the price chart of the market(s) you follow. Of the 13 Elliott wave patterns, the zigzag is among the easiest to identify.

Corn: What to Make of the HUGE 14% Sell-Off?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 13:15:00

Analysts blamed the plunge on "bigger-than-expected U.S. stockpiles and increased planting..." (Bloomberg) But as is often the case, Elliott waves tell a different story -- in fact, they sent the signal in advance. On March 27, the very day when the sell-off began, Jeffrey Kennedy, the editor of our Daily Futures Junctures, offered this forecast...

Corn Prices Crash the Daily Exchange Limit

Nico Isaac — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 18:30:00

In the March 27 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey revealed a mountain of evidence suggesting that corn prices were set to experience a dramatic decline. One day later, on March 28, corn prices stunned the futures marketplace by plunging more than 5%. This exceeded the maximum daily limit allowed on the Chicago Board of Trade and marked corn’s biggest single-day slide in ten months.

Don’t Blame Sugar’s Bear Market on a Glut in Supply

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 10:30:00

According to conventional economic wisdom, the law of supply & demand applies to investor behavior in financial markets, meaning an excess in supply cause commodity prices to fall. Let’s take the recent price action in sugar. On March 25, sugar futures ended the day at their lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Point of fact, sugar futures have plummeted 50% since hitting a 30-plus year peak in February 2011.

What’s Driving Live Cattle Prices Down?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:30:00

It may sound a bit far-fetched, but navigating trend changes in financial markets is like riding with a long-distance cattle drive. Hear me out: In both cases, the best position is at the front of the herd, which is actually reserved for the most skilled, senior cowhands. It follows that the worst position is behind the herd. This area is reserved for novice cowboys (called “pilgrims”) or insubordinates. It’s also known as the “dustbowl” for the clouds of dirt that the herd kicks into the riders’ eyes.

Press Play to See Jeffrey Kennedy's Far-Reaching 2013 Commodity Outlook

Nico Isaac — Tue, 12 Mar 2013 18:00:00

Spring hasn't even arrived officially, yet some of us are already feeling the three "izies" of the season: hazy, fuzzy and dizzy. Yet it's not my hay fever that has my teeth on edge, but the suffocating cloud of mainstream financial news regarding long-term commodity trends.

Corn Prices Could be Headed in One Direction for All of 2013

Nico Isaac — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 13:30:00

Today we discuss the often-exciting Elliott wave pattern known as the Ending Diagonal. If you're new to Elliott, an ending diagonal signals exhaustion of the larger trend...

The Next Chapter in the Commodities Story Is Just Beginning

Nico Isaac — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 18:00:00

On Feb. 6, the World Bank released its Global Economic Prospects' Commodity Market Outlook. The 26-page document is a great read if you've got an afternoon to spare (or want to cure insomnia). But for the rest of us, this short version should do: Commodities across the board should "ease marginally" in 2013 so long as a boatload of factors play out as expected. Multiple plotlines is fun when you're kid. But when it comes to futures markets, the goal is to narrow, not expand the scope of probable outcomes.

Opportunities in Key Commodity Markets Are Not 2 Good 2 B True

Nico Isaac — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:30:00

The charts in today's column come courtesy of Elliott Wave International's sweet near-term commodity-based service Daily Futures Junctures. I've pulled from the bag of opportunities identified by Daily Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy in recent months. And no, unlike the sugar-coated candy messages, the before-and-after charts below are not 2 Good 2 B True.

Sugar Bowl Monday: Keep the Objective Lights Turned On

Nico Isaac — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 17:00:00

When the Superdome lost half of its power as I watched the 47th Super Bowl this past Sunday, my mind drifted quickly to fundamental analysis of financial markets. The connection is obvious once you think about it: Using fundamentals to illuminate near-term trend changes of liquid markets is about as effective as playing football in a half-lit dome. One player can heave the ball (or market logic) into the air -- but nobody can see it well enough to make the catch.