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The FTSE's Recent Fall: Will It Be Just a Footnote?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 17:30:00

In late May, the media frenzy over the FTSE 100's uptrend was akin to commotion over Kate Middleton's (the Duchess of Cambridge) baby bump. And while the the royal heir's gender was still unknown, the mainstream financial experts were pretty darn certain about the stock market's identity -- a bouncing baby bull.

UK Banks: Back on Solid Ground?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 07 Jun 2013 15:15:00

In May 2013, Britain's top five banks announced that they will meet capital levels required by the Bank of England without having to sell shares. "This is confirmation that the capital debate is over," began one news source. "The funding problem in the UK is over." So, are they right?

A Wall-to-Wall Selloff in European Bourses

Nico Isaac — Thu, 23 May 2013 16:15:00

On Thursday, May 23, the ticker tape of European stock markets resembled the jumbotron scale on the weight-loss reality TV show The Biggest Loser -- one triple-digit number after another. Unlike the TV show, however, the sharp stock market declines were not a sign of improving health. According to one news report, brokers across the pond went on a 24-hour damage control assuring their "investors to keep calm, carry on, and don't panic."

The UK Avoids Recession. Proof Positive of Recovery?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 25 Apr 2013 17:00:00

In the morning hours of April 25, the UK financial community was a picture of Hunger Games-like angst. Huddled masses stood around the Office for National Statistics, waiting nervously to hear whether the name -- Britain -- would be drawn to participate in a highly dreaded recession.

Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll

Nico Isaac — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 17:00:00

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Short-Term Euro Memory Loss

Nico Isaac — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 17:15:00

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails.

Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 17:15:00

The conventional wisdom would have to agree. Every polled financial pundit from here to the Hellenic Republic insists that – while not totally out of the woods – the worst of the eurozone economic crisis is in the rearview. The universally recognized date for the Continent’s exact turning point is July 2012. That’s when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tossed his tie over his shoulder to verbally put the naysayers in their place

European Markets: Are 'Happy Days Here Again'?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 10:15:00

When the 2007-2009 financial crisis nearly unravelled the global economy, many investors hid under their virtual beds, and parked the bulk of their wealth in safe-haven products. Now it's 2013, and a recent Wall Street Journal article describes an almost emboldening epidemic affecting the world's market participants known as "fear fatigue."

A Fundamental Lesson from Italy's Recent Political Deadlock

Nico Isaac — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 17:30:00

On Feb. 26, Italy's much-anticipated Parliamentary Election ended in an impasse, when dark horse candidate/comedian Beppe Grillo earned enough votes to prevent the two leading parties from gaining a majority. In the immediate aftermath of the election, European stock markets took a synchronized leap south in single-day declines from 1.5% to 5%. On that day, the mainstream experts were unanimous: Italy's election outcome flat out bearish...

Starry-Eyed Surprise: The Economy Does Not Lead Stock Markets

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 17:30:00

Conventional economic wisdom says economic indicators drive stock market trends. If the economic news of the day -- employment, manufacturing, home sales, etc. -- is positive, then "Joe Pundit" says that's why stock prices rallied. If those numbers are negative he says that's why prices fell. Case in point, the following news stories regarding the recent performance in London's FTSE 100:

Is It Really Time to Buy Europe?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 12:30:00

When it comes to assessing the near- and long-term trends underway in financial markets, Elliott wave analysts adopt what I call the three-legged stool approach to forecasting. Their analysis rests on three main factors: Elliott wave structure, technical indicators, and sentiment. The first two legs are tangible: Elliott wave patterns unfold in clear and calculable formations on financial market price charts. Technical indicators are also observable on price charts as oscillators or bar patterns or candlesticks and the like. But what about sentiment -- how do you measure extremes in human emotion?

European Stocks: EuroStoxx 50 Shows a Topping Picture

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 17:15:00

The news reports from Europe on January 30 said that European stocks took a hit after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP number for the 4th quarter of 2012. Yet Elliott wave patterns in the EuroStoxx 50, pan-European index of the continent's 50 largest stocks, are showing that the recent rally has been on its last leg for a while.

Is Joining the Eurozone the Path to Economic Recovery?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 17:00:00

For the economies across the pond, a common nickname for the 17-nation eurozone is "the Club." And for the last few years, the reigning attitude regarding accession into said Club has been less gratitude and more Groucho Marx. That is, until now. In the short extent of 2013 so far, noticeable pockets have formed in the Continent's once airtight anti-euro campaign. Here, a comparison of news stories from 2011 to news storiestoday captures the dialing down of no-zone sentiment:

Does Germany Have the Power to Save Europe's Economy?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 17:30:00

Without question, Germany, the world's third-largest economy, closed 2012 in a year-end tour de force. And now, folks want to know whether the stellar performance is the bearish curtain call Germany – and the rest of Europe – has long awaited.

The Euro's 10 Percent Rally: A Tale of Two Forecasts

Nathaniel Williams — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 11:15:00

Barron's and many others predicted the euro to reach parity with the dollar in 2012. Elliott wave analysis had a starkly different outlook. See what led our analysts to this contrasting conclusion.

European Stock Markets Holding Their "Breadth" for Good News

Nico Isaac — Thu, 27 Dec 2012 16:15:00

Every year around this time, investors act a lot like teenagers waiting anxiously by the mailbox to receive their college acceptance letters. A thin letter: Bad news. A thick packet: Good news. But instead of finding out their future alma mater, investors find out their year-end stock returns. With just a few days left on the calendar, market goers across the pond have received a very thick packet indeed. To wit: In early December 2012, the regional benchmark Euro Stoxx 600 index enjoyed its biggest annual rally since 2009 to set a new, intraday high for the year.

Signs the European Economy is Climbing a "Wall of Worry"

Nico Isaac — Fri, 21 Dec 2012 11:45:00

These days, it's difficult to find a bright side to the onslaught of negative news coming out of Europe -- unless, of course, you happen to be a contrarian. In fact, the more downtrodden the mainstream eurozone headlines become, the stronger grows the idea that Europe is becoming a strong contrarian play. So, are they right? Are European investors climbing a wall of worry in a fresh bull market?

Which Ominous Statistic Hit ’Staggering’ Record Highs in Spain?

Nathaniel Williams — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 17:00:00

"The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain," sang Eliza Doolittle in Lerner and Loewe's "My Fair Lady." But our European analyst rhymes Spain with "circling the drain" in the headline of a chart about the percentage of delinquent Spanish loans. Find out why.

Europe's Return of Risky Debt: Sign of Hope or Dangerous Omen?

Nathaniel Williams — Mon, 12 Nov 2012 13:30:00

By all accounts, the economic and financial realities in Europe seem dire. Yet if you look at the behavior of some credit traders in Europe, you'd never know it. Is their new-found optimism toward risky debt a sign of hope -- or a dangerous omen?

European Stock Markets: Time to Buy - or - Buying Time?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 17:30:00

When the major European stock markets emerged from the usually nightmarish months of September and October 2012 relatively unscathed -- the mainstream experts took it as a clear sign that the duck-and-cover years were finally behind them. Here, the following string of recent news items captures the renewed enthusiasm for the buy-side of European bourses...