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Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear

Nico Isaac — Wed, 15 May 2013 15:00:00

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 08 May 2013 16:30:00

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."

Crude Oil's Near Term Trend: Does Every Millisecond Count?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 02 May 2013 11:00:00

When it comes to trading commodity markets, time is not a sensitive issue, it's the sensitive issue. That truth was reinforced by a recent Wall Street Journal article titled "High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole." That loophole is the time lag between when high-speed computer traders receive order confirmations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, vs.when the public receives confirmations -- specifically, a lag of "one-to-ten milliseconds" (a thousand milliseconds equals one second.)

Why Are Crude Oil Prices Dropping? Not Why Many People Think

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:30:00

Gold wasn't the only market that fell out of bed Monday morning (April 15). Crude oil also fell -- as low as $86.06 a barrel over the past couple of trading days. If you've read opinions as to why oil is getting cheaper, a common reason cited by the pundits is that oil reflects the state of the global economy. Interesting. If that is true, then what you see in these charts must be false.

Crude Oil Analysis Without the 800-pound Swinging Cyprus Gorilla on its Back

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:45:00

According to the mainstream experts, crude oil prices are "struggling to find direction due to the confusing position taken by authorities in reaction to Cyprus." Yet if you look elsewhere regarding crude's price trend -- like a basic chart of crude like the one below -- you can easily see that the market has had no problem finding a direction...

Impulsive Price Action Could Be on Tap for the US Oil Exchange Traded Fund

Nico Isaac — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 17:30:00

My personal favorite Elliott wave pattern, of all 13 known patterns, is the third wave. To witness a wave 3 in action is “a powerful sight to see.” The first chart below of natural gas comes from EWI's January 2011 Global Market Perspective. It showed prices gearing up for a third-of-a-third wave decline to $2 -- a level the market had not seen in over a decade.

Here's What Has to Happen to Confirm an Uptrend In Crude Oil

Nico Isaac — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 18:15:00

The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been all over the news, but few observers are ready to make bold declarations about that country's political future. Mainstream financial experts, however, have not hesitated to assess what impact Chavez's demise will have on crude oil prices. After all, Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, earning its nickname "Saudi Arabia of South America."

Navigating Crude Oil Requires EPS: Elliott (wave) Positioning System

Nico Isaac — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 19:15:00

On Feb. 12 EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig recorded a special video take on the near-term Elliott wave pattern unfolding in crude oil. There, Steve plugged a bullish wave count into his EPS -- the Elliott wave Positioning System. The "map" (i.e. chart) and directions appeared.

Market Insight: Crude Rises, But Other Members of Energy Complex Fall

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 18:30:00

"West Texas Intermediate oil rose in New York as U.S. durable goods and housing data exceeded forecasts, signs an economic rebound may spur fuel demand," said a February 27 news headline. Technically, yes, WTI oil did close higher for the day: up 13 cents. But for a market that can move $3-$4 a day...

This Isn't the First We've Heard of a Natural Gas Supply Glut

Nico Isaac — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 17:45:00

Natural gas is a volatile commodity in more ways than one – including its price swings in the futures market. So, it goes without saying that energy traders and investors want analysis that helps navigate the sudden turns in natural gas prices. And, ever since the first fossil fuels were extracted from the earth, mainstream experts seem to know only one way to think about near-term price trends ...

Crude Oil: What's Behind February 15 Sell-Off?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 17:00:00

Saying that crude oil fell on February 5 "after U.S. industrial production unexpectedly shrank" is a perfectly logical explanation for the reason behind crude's February 15 sell-off. However, Elliott wave patterns in oil charts warned of the decline the day before.

Have Crude Oil Prices Surpassed Key Bearish Resistance?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 17:15:00

On Jan. 29, crude prices rallied to their highest level in four months. But as the recent slew of news stories below makes plain, the mainstream outlook failed the "consistency" test regarding what would drive crude's near-term trend. One side said political unrest in the Middle East is bullish for crude. While another news source said political unrest is a non-event.

Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures Experience Possible "Failed 5th Wave"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 19:15:00

On January 28, crude oil futures popped to an intraday high of $96.81 a barrel. Then, just as quickly, the price fell to an intraday low of $95.47. The fast rally/decline sequence could have been a possible "truncated fifth [wave] following a triangle." Here's what that is...

Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 22:15:00

"Oil is emerging from an Elliott wave triangle, accompanied by momentum divergence," says EWI's Chief Energy Analyst and editor of the firm's Energy Specialty Service, Steve Craig.

Are the Days of the Crude Oil Rally Numbered?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 18:15:00

Sometimes it's great to have a boatload of choices at your disposal. I like nothing more than to be able to walk into my favorite pizza joint and order a no cheese, thin-crust pie with white sauce, half ham, half pineapple... and hold the basil. But when it comes to financial market analysis, having a multitude of price forecasts can put you at a serious disadvantage. Take, for instance, the recent news stories regarding crude oil. On Jan. 18, crude oil prices soared to their highest level in four months. That was the easy part.

Market Insight: Crude Oil

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 21:15:00

In crude oil, there's been a lot of up and down lately, but not a whole lot of up OR down. The market remains "uncommitted" to a trend. Here's what the chart of crude looks like since the start of the year...

Market Insight: Crude Oil

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 17:15:00

The year started slowly for crude oil futures. As you can see on this chart (Elliott wave labels not shown), trading has been range-bound between $91 and $92 a barrel.

Crude Oil Prices & the Fiscal Cliffhanger

Nico Isaac — Wed, 26 Dec 2012 18:45:00

On Dec. 26, crude oil bulls woke up to find a post-Christmas present beneath their investment tree: a 3% rally in early trading that lifted prices to their highest level in 2 months. As for what caused crude prices to kick it into HIGH gear? Well, according to the mainstream financial experts, the bullish catalyst was "hopes for a last minute deal" to resolve the US fiscal cliff... this time, that is.

Crude Oil: How to Achieve the Best Case Scenario

Nico Isaac — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 14:15:00

A recent article on a popular financial news site considered 10 possible "surprises that could rattle the financial markets" in 2013. I've already discussed the list's fourth "outrageous prediction" -- Gold drops to $1200 an ounce. Today I want to address #5: "Crude oil slumps to $50 a barrel." Again, the article says that while each forecast is "unofficial," it's still "important that investors know the worst-case scenario," the "storms to be weathered."

Gas Price Crash: Will the "Pump Slump" Continue?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 16:45:00

For the better part of 2012, the stubbornly steep price of gasoline had been a source of all-out road rage. I myself came to call any fuel dispensaries by one single name: "Blow a GAS-ket station." But a few weeks ago, gas prices began to fall -- and now, according to a string of Dec. 10 news items, the pump pain may finally be over...