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Why Trend Extrapolation Doesn't Work in Financial Markets

Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT — Tue, 14 May 2013 13:30:00

Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change.

How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous

Bob Stokes — Thu, 09 May 2013 16:45:00

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Why You Should Make Wealth Protection a Top Priority

Bob Stokes — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 18:30:00

EWI's analysis strongly suggests that the economy is entering a rare period of deflation. In terms of scale, U.S. history includes only two other such periods.

(Sample) A Historic Sentiment Peak So Extreme It Happens "Only Once in Centuries"

Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:30:00

(From the new Elliott Wave Theorist) Not a single investment market – be it bonds, stocks, real estate, commodities or precious metals – stands anywhere near a major bottom today. Every one of them continues to show characteristics of being on the left or right side of a historic top of sentiment so extreme as to occur on average only once in centuries.

(Audio) Q&A: Robert Prechter on the Fed, Inflation, Gold and More

Editorial Staff — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:30:00

The figure here shows gold and silver prices for 2012 with the dates of the Fed’s unprecedented announcements. Both times, metals bulls got everything they hoped for and feared. Yet both markets peaked shortly after the first announcement, and they fell hard from a lower peak starting the very hour that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the start of his program to more than double his inflating from an already unprecedented rate. During that hour on Dec. 12, from 1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m., Robert Prechter was on the phone doing an interview with GoldSeek radio.

Prechter: "I'd Love to Turn Long-Term Bullish Again"

Bob Stokes — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 16:45:00

Hindsight shows that Robert Prechter's August 1983 then-radical forecast of a "once-in-a-generation money-making opportunity" did happen. Yet that was a two-part forecast, so this question remains: Is the "biggest financial catastrophe" that Prechter foresaw still unfolding, or has the Fed confined the damage to the 2007-2009 financial crisis?

The Secret Word: Deflation – And the Next Five Years of Financial Turmoil

Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 14:30:00

In the first five months of 2012, there were 20 times as many Google searches on “inflation” as there were on “deflation.” This is down from a ratio of 50 times in June 2008. If any theme has been overdone over the past six years, it is the theme of inevitable inflation if not hyperinflation.

The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line

Bob Stokes — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 17:00:00

It's true that a Treasury-bill account yields next to nothing. But at this financial juncture, the well-known saying of humorist Will Rogers has never been more relevant: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money." Learn why Bob Prechter says that embracing financial risk because interest rates are low can be a trap.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is Going on a Spending Spree

Robert Folsom — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 17:30:00

This past Wednesday, Dec. 12, the Federal Reserve released its FOMC meeting minutes and policy statement. Such releases from the Fed are common, yet this particular statement was uncommon indeed. The central bank announced it's going on a spending spree.

Conquer the Crash: A Book You Can "Judge By Its Cover"

Bob Stokes — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 17:45:00

In 2007-09, the world saw how quickly financial conditions can reverse. Even so, most economists remained dismissive of deflation. Yet, be aware of what Robert Prechter wrote in the July 2012 Elliott Wave Theorist, "Only one word allows you to make sense of what’s going on in the world, and inflation is not it." Learn what else Prechter had to say.

Why Investors Love Stocks When They Are Over-Valued

Bob Stokes — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 17:00:00

When stocks are "on sale," investors shun them. But when stock prices rise, investors embrace them -- in fact, the higher prices go the greater the demand. This is why the supply and demand model we all learned in Economics 101 does not work in financial markets. If the traditional economic model doesn't work in finance, what model does?

The Fragile Stock Market: One Glitch Away from Massive Losses

Bob Stokes — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 17:15:00

If the Knight Capital glitch happened when the market was relatively calm, imagine what could happen when investors are running for the hills. Read what Robert Prechter is saying...

World's 15 Biggest Banks Get Downgraded -- What This Means for "Safe Banks"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 18:00:00

This seems like a good moment for those "safe-haven" banks to toot their horn a little, as it might just get them more business -- just as this quote from Ch. 19 of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash had predicted...

10 Years Ago Today: Prechter's Conquer the Crash Is Published. Read 8 Chapters Free Now

Jill Noble — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 19:00:00

Take advantage of this FREE, 8-lesson Club EWI report that can help you prepare your financial future.

Happy Phi Day -- Perfect Day for Some Phinancial Fun

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 11:45:00

June 18 (6-18) is that special day when we celebrate the Golden Ratio (0.618...) and all the ways we use it today in wave analysis.

Why Your Brain Makes the Wrong Decision at the Worst Time

Bob Stokes — Thu, 31 May 2012 15:45:00

Is the reasoning function of the brain completely absent during the buying and selling of financial assets? Robert Prechter answers the question this way...

Can Two or More Wave Interpretations be Equally Probable? Robert Prechter Explains

Bob Stokes — Tue, 22 May 2012 16:45:00

Elliott wave practitioners know their discipline requires work. Yet that work can yield timely money-making insights...

Stock Market Turning Points: Has Wall Street Ever Warned You in Time?

Bob Stokes — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 17:45:00

When it comes to financial markets, most allow others to do their thinking for them. You've heard the phrase "the blind following the blind." Yes, they both fall into the ditch. At Elliott Wave International, our mission is to keep our subscribers out of the ditch. To do so, we must first...

R.N. Elliott Discovered the Wave Principle Over 70 Years Ago

Editorial Staff — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 11:45:00

In the 1930s, Ralph N. Elliott discovered that stock market prices tend to move in recurring patterns. He defined these patterns (or "waves") and explained how they combine to create larger versions of themselves. He called his discovery the Wave Principle. Learn this method that successful investors have used for decades.

The "Father of the Elliott Wave Theory" Makes a 2012 Forecast - 70 Years Ago

Bob Stokes — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 17:15:00

In 1941, R.N. Elliott published a long-term forecast based on a specific mathematical phenomenon. That forecast mentions the year 2012!...