Elliott Wave International - Free Updates

The Gold U.F.O.: Unexplainable Falling Object?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 17 May 2013 17:15:00

According to a growing number of well-respected sources, the downtrend in gold is a great and artful conspiracy. Yes, they're serious. The 'I smell a rat' notion stems from the widely-held belief that prices in major financial markets do not suddenly fall off cliffs. Gold is not supposed to be as volatile as lesser commodities, but instead be an insurance against panic.

Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 17 May 2013 16:15:00

To decipher the meaning of economic reports like consumer confidence is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data are supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Stocks don't fall after good reports, or rise after bad ones...do they? Well, take a look at these financial news headlines and guess when they were published...

Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference

Bob Stokes — Fri, 17 May 2013 15:45:00

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation. One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

Market Insight: USDJPY Completes a 5-Wave Rally

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 16 May 2013 17:15:00

On May 15, just as EURUSD broke below the psychologically important price level of 1.30, USDJPY staged a rally. The mainstream forex news sources cited various fundamental factors for the dollar strength/yen weakness. Yet, as you have probably noticed, those explanations almost always make perfect sense -- but only after the fact.

EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:30:00

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Lenders and Borrowers "Just Say No" to New Credit

Bob Stokes — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:30:00

The desire of lenders to lend and of borrowers to borrow has shriveled dramatically. Interest rates have been historically low for years now, yet the economy is barely treading water. History shows that low interest rates are rarely bullish for the economy. Learn why.

Why a Triangle Marks the Spot of Opportunity in Cocoa

Nico Isaac — Thu, 16 May 2013 16:00:00

School may be winding down for summer break, but the Elliott Wave class is still very much in session. And on the syllabus for today's lesson is the Elliott wave pattern known as the contracting triangle. Here's where you'll want to start taking notes. First, there's the basic definition and diagram of the pattern.Then, there's two real-world examples of the contracting triangle signaling dramatic price moves in sugar and coffee.

Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear

Nico Isaac — Wed, 15 May 2013 15:00:00

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some

Bob Stokes — Wed, 15 May 2013 14:30:00

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Why Trend Extrapolation Doesn't Work in Financial Markets

Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT — Tue, 14 May 2013 13:30:00

Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change.

Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929

Bob Stokes — Mon, 13 May 2013 17:00:00

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"? One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

What Trading Elliott and Flying a Plane Have in Common

Jill Noble — Mon, 13 May 2013 16:45:00

Watch over a senior Elliottician's shoulder to see every aspect of his techinical approach; from wave counts and fibonacci targets to specific trade management techniques.

If the Fed Stops Easing, Will Gold Start Wheezing?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 13 May 2013 16:30:00

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.

Soybean Prices: Sticking Out Their Neck(line)

Nico Isaac — Fri, 10 May 2013 18:00:00

You've probably never heard the words "Mint Chocolate Chip" and "Head-and-Shoulders pattern" uttered in (nearly) the same breath. But for EWI's senior commodities analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy, those apparently unrelated phrases do indeed have something in common -- namely, they are two of Jeffrey's favorite things in the whole wide world:

Higher Housing Prices: Prepare for the Flop to Follow the Flip

Bob Stokes — Fri, 10 May 2013 17:30:00

The National Association of Realtors reports that home prices are up 11.6% year over year. And that has a new surge of house flippers into the real estate market. If the housing market is poised for another dramatic downturn, almost no one sees it coming.

The 2 Most Important Keys to Successful Trading

Jill Noble — Fri, 10 May 2013 11:00:00

Avoid two common trading pitfalls: educate yourself with a valuable lesson from Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous

Bob Stokes — Thu, 09 May 2013 16:45:00

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

The Looming Financial Flameout: Phase II

Robert Folsom — Thu, 09 May 2013 16:15:00

This chart updates an earlier version published in the January 2007 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. At that time, the chart was a warning for subscribers. An epic turn in the economy and financial markets began a few months later. That turn is clear to see on the updated chart taken from page 4 of the May 2013 Financial Forecast.

EURUSD: Lots of Ups and Downs, Zero Net Progress

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 09 May 2013 14:30:00

Here's what's interesting. Since the start of May, the euro bulls have tried to rally EURUSD higher at least five times. On May 8, we saw the latest attampt at a rally. It went as high as 1.3195. Then on May 9, the market fell again. That has been the fate of every rally, so far ...

The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 08 May 2013 16:30:00

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."