|
Scientific
Controversy: Who Discovered Financial Fractals?
The February issue of Scientific American
presents a cover article by the well-known scientist Benoit
Mandelbrot. In "A Fractal Walk Down Wall Street," Mandelbrot
claims to have discovered self-affinity in markets, i.e.,
the idea that fluctuations at small scales are no different
from those at large scales. At Elliott Wave International,
we recognize that Mandelbrot’s depictions present an aspect
of more comprehensive ideas first elucidated by Ralph Nelson
Elliott in two books, twelve magazine articles and several
dozen essays published from 1938 to 1946, all of which are
in print.
At first glance, one might conclude that Mandelbrot
simply made an independent announcement half a century after
Elliott. However, he is intimately familiar with Elliott and
his work, as he penned a brief dismissal of both in his 1997
book, Fractals and Scaling in Finance. We address
this dismissal in our detailed discussion below.
There is no question of Mandelbrot’s genius and
contribution to the science of fractal geometry. However, it
is only fair that credit go where it is due. According to
James Gleick's book Chaos (pp. 111-112), Mandelbrot
over the years has been accused by colleagues of habitually
taking credit for far more than he should. We believe that
this time, he has assuredly overstepped the bounds of
courtesy.
Elliott Wave International is not the only firm to have
pointed out this injustice. Scientific American has
received a large volume of protest, some of which has been
cc’d to our Bulletin Board. The magazine has printed
Mandelbrot’s response in its June issue, out now. We reply
to his response at the end of our detailed discussion, which
follows below.
To make up your own mind, you are welcome to dive into
this fascinating question by exploring the rest of this
site.
Continue to
Mandelbrot's Article
Scientific
Controversy Introduction -
Mandelbrot's Article - Prechter's
Letter to the Editor
Prechter's Response - Follow-up Responses
- Socionomics
For more articles on
Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave analysis,
sign up for Club EWI. |