Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Real Estate Mania Makes a Comeback
Home bidding wars in Washington D.C.

By Bob Stokes
12/21/2012 5:30:00 PM

In most parts of the country, residential real estate prices remain well below their peak highs. Yet the resurgent bidding wars in some markets suggest that the lesson about bubbles remains unlearned. Will these new, highest-bidder home buyers have the price rug pulled out from under them in the same way buyers did in the mid-2000s?

Filed Under: conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, home sales, housing prices, Robert Prechter, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


Why the Door May Slam Shut on the Residential Real Estate "Rebound"
How the mortgage-crisis still haunts the economy

By Bob Stokes
12/10/2012 4:30:00 PM

A securities lawyer told the New York Times that "We are at an all-time high for mortgage litigation." The lawsuits involve some $1-trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities; banks stand to lose as much as $300-billion. But this "fresh torrent" of mortgage lawsuits against banks is just one headwind that the so-called housing recovery faces. Learn what else may trip up the so called housing "recovery."

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, foreclosures, great depression, home sales, housing prices, insurance industry, Interest Rates, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


The Expected Housing Recovery Faces a Brick Wall
Re-emergent house flippers are set to flop.

By Bob Stokes
12/4/2012 4:00:00 PM

Two years before the housing bust became painfully obvious to U.S. homeowners, EWI's publications warned subscribers that the housing market had reached extremes and was about to bust.  Now, lofty expectations for home prices have returned. So have house "flippers." Is it different this time? Is it safe again to speculate in U.S. real estate?

Filed Under: deflation, economic indicators, home sales, housing prices, Magazine Cover Indicator, mania, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


History Has a Lesson for Real Estate Investors Who Think the Bubble is Fully Deflated
The service that forecast the real estate implosion warns of other bubbles

By Bob Stokes
7/16/2012 4:15:00 PM

Remember, real estate turned with lightning speed and accelerated downward. Yet the plunging prices were almost universally unexpected. Other financial asset classes are now sending equally ominous signs of major trend turns...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, commercial real estate, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, debt, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, financial forecast, foreclosures, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


"Eerie Echo" of Pre-Lehman: Is Contagion from Europe Coming to the U.S.?
If Greece exits the eurozone the fallout could be "Lehman on steroids."

By Bob Stokes
6/12/2012 4:45:00 PM

As credit risk increases in Europe, the outcome may dwarf the Lehman shock wave. How can you protect your portfolio in a downward spiral of deflation? Every investor needs to know the answer to this question...

Filed Under: banks, conquer the crash, credit default swaps, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, eurozone, Lehman Brothers, soverign debt crisis, subprime lending, world central banks

Category: U.S. Economy


U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?
Bernanke comments raise questions about banks

By Bob Stokes
4/20/2012 4:45:00 PM

Four years after we brushed up against "financial Armageddon," it appears our financial system is still not as stable as it needs to be. We believe that you should plan ahead for a run on bank deposits. Here's why...

Filed Under: banks, Ben Bernanke, cash, Club EWI, conquer the crash, credit crisis, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Robert Prechter, safe banks, safe haven, subprime lending, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy


Vultures Circle the US Housing Market, Again
Why EWI's team of analysts, including Bob Prechter in his Conquer the Crash, foresaw the real estate crash -- and what Elliott wave analysis suggest for housing now

By Nico Isaac
9/27/2011 4:00:00 PM

On site of the gruesome real estate crash, financial paramedics have tried every resuscitating trick in the book to revive their dying patient: Trillions of dollars in government bailouts; repeated first-time buyer tax breaks; and record low mortgage rates. Yet, the US housing market is showing no gain activity.

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, conquer the crash, credit crisis, housing prices, Robert Prechter, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate


Is the U.S. Banking Sector Finally Back On Solid Ground?
EWI's Financial Forecast Service gives you a more complete picture of how financials are faring

By Nico Isaac
7/14/2011 6:45:00 PM

Before you join the financial media in their collective sigh of relief, let me point out that in the May 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, EWI analysts presented the following chart of the DJIA versus two key financial indexes...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), foreclosures, market forecasts, subprime lending

Category: Stocks


Debt Man's Curve, It's No Place to Play
Why high debt does not necessarily mean high interest rates

By Jason Farkas
6/21/2011 2:15:00 PM

Sovereign debt is making the headlines these days, and here is a new way to look at the different risk levels of bonds -- the Debt Parabola, a.k.a. Debt Man's Curve.

Filed Under: emerging markets, eurozone, Greek debt, municipal bonds, pension funds, Robert Prechter, Sovereign Debt, subprime lending, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Treasuries

Category: U.S. Economy


Housing Market: Worst Since "The Great Depression"?
Has the Downtrend in Housing Hit a Bottom?

By Bob Stokes
6/6/2011 5:15:00 PM

Home prices were on a "one-way street" -- namely up. But as we know, the trend in real estate prices did an abrupt U-turn. Now it's traveling swiftly in the opposite lane. How long will this downward trend continue?...

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, conquer the crash, economic depression, foreclosures, housing prices, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate


Big Economic Contraction on the Way?
"When Housing Starts Stop, the Economy Does the Same"

By Bob Stokes
5/26/2011 5:00:00 PM

Does the trend in today's real estate market portend what's ahead in the general economy? We can say this: many of the same deteriorating economic indicators that we saw in mid-2007 are...

Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deflation, economic depression, housing prices, Robert Prechter, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


Commercial Real Estate: "Ghost Malls" in the Making?
One in Ten Mall Stores Are Vacant

By Bob Stokes
4/29/2011 3:30:00 PM

Commercial real estate's downward trend goes beyond suburban malls. Much office space in business districts is empty. Read this excerpt...

Filed Under: commercial real estate, conquer the crash, credit crisis, deflation, foreclosures, housing prices, Robert Prechter, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate


US Housing Market: The Lost City Of Atlantis
Elliott wave analysis and historical stock market and real estate trend comparisons helped foresee the historic reversal in the US real estate market.

By Nico Isaac
2/10/2011 6:00:00 PM

According to the most recent quarterly real estate market survey from Zillow.com, the percentage of U.S. homes UNDERWATER -- i.e., those whose market values are below what's owed on them -- soared from 20% in August 2010 to 27% today. On top of that, home prices continue to decline while foreclosure rates rose to a new, all-time record high. (February 10, 2011 Associated Press)

Filed Under: foreclosures, housing prices, market forecasts, subprime lending, Wall Street

Category: Real Estate


If It's "A Buyer's Market," Why Is No One Buying?
Looking for a Bottom in the Residential Real Estate Market

By Bob Stokes
1/27/2011 4:15:00 PM

Much of what makes a "home and hearth" cannot be measured in dollars and cents. Even so, it's not wise to ignore the financial facts of residential real estate...

Filed Under: consumer spending, credit crisis, economic depression, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, housing prices, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate


A New Year: Will There Be a Bullish Miracle on 34th Street?
Elliott Wave International foresaw the major "balloons" of the 2007 financial crisis go POP!

By Nico Isaac
1/4/2011 3:15:00 PM

Elliott Wave International wasn't around during the Great Depression of 1929. But we were here for the most recent financial flameout in 2007 -- when the most inflated credit environment in all of history entangled itself around the engine of economic growth and sent it hurtling toward a fiery collapse. And contrary to the popular belief that the still continuing meltdown was an unforeseeable event, Elliott Wave International's team of analysts stayed ahead of the bursting of the economy's biggest balloons

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, credit crisis, crude oil, eurozone, eurozone, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, great depression, housing prices, quantitative easing, subprime lending, Wall Street

Category: U.S. Economy


We All SAW Subprime, But Not All of Us LEARNED From It
Certain news stories do indeed reflect today's investor psychology

By Robert Folsom
10/5/2010 1:00:00 PM

It's been barely two years since we all saw exactly how a story like this must end. But this time it's even worse. Previously the toxic assets were based on subprime mortgages; now the toxic assets are based on subprime auto loans. Auto loans, dear reader...

Filed Under: subprime lending, investor psychology

Category: Interest Rates


When Do Bear Markets End?
The simplest answer amounts to a nine-word sentence

By Robert Folsom
9/24/2010 3:00:00 PM

First allow me to show what the end of a bear market is by describing what it is not.

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Bear market, subprime lending

Category: Stocks


Why You Can't Model Away Risk

By Susan C. Walker
4/17/2009 6:15:00 PM

Wall Street hires sophisticated number-crunchers to figure out all kinds of risk for investments, but their computer models give only the illusion of evaluating risk.

Filed Under: hedge funds, subprime lending

Category: Classic Prechter


Three Questions I Ask Myself
"2008: The Year Everything Changes"

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/29/2008 6:15:00 PM

Well, here we are – a year-and-a-half since the start of the crisis, and hardly out of the woods. While we at EWI take pride in having prepared our subscribers, we take no pleasure in watching the devastation that this crisis has been causing. But it is here. And, probably like you and lots of other people, I keep asking myself these three questions...

Filed Under: foreclosures, subprime lending, liquidity, deflation, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks


Fannie, Freddie Signal Bigger Problems for U.S. Economy
The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a 'great transformation.'

By Peter Kendall
7/10/2008 2:45:00 PM

The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a “great transformation,” one that extends beyond real estate to the larger economy and many aspects of our everyday lives. See this story about Fannie Mae's recent troubles.

Filed Under: Fannie Mae, housing prices, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.