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The Generals Survey their Battlefields: Iraq and the U.S. Economy

by Susan Walker
4/8/2008 5:15:00 PM

General David Petraeus and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are both dealing with Gordian knot problems -- one on the war front and the other on the economic front, And George Soros has some of his own thoughts on the subject of the financial system turned into Godzilla.

Filed Under: recession, Soros, Petraeus, Bernanke, monetary policy, financial markets
Category: Economy


Headed For Recession: Are We or Aren't We?

by Nico Isaac
4/4/2008 4:30:00 PM

From the “Today Show” to the “Tonight Show,” the Situation Room to the locker room, and the cocktail party to the carpool lane, one issue has taken center stage: U.S. recession -- Are we OR Aren’t we there yet? 

Filed Under: recession, Wall Street, ben bernanke, Federal Reserve, interest rates, U.S. economy
Category: Economy


How To Cope with Economic Times That Try the Soul
Our Current Financial Crisis as Seen Through the Eyes of Thomas Paine

by Susan Walker
3/25/2008 6:00:00 PM

These are the times that try men's souls, wrote Thomas Paine in 1776, referring to the North American colonists' revolt from British rule. And now, referring to the U.S. economy, we can equally say that these are the economic times that try the national soul. Whereas last year and in years earlier, we here at Elliott Wave International warned about the tough times to come in the economy, today's news stories are full of woe.

Filed Under: Thomas Paine, recession, Gold
Category: Economy


A Non-Guarantee Put to the Test (part 1)
The Ballad of Fannie & Freddie

by Robert Folsom
3/13/2008 2:30:00 PM

Once upon a time, the U.S. government created the secondary mortgage market. (During FDR's New Deal, if you're dying to know). With help from the agency known as Fannie Mae, this government creation grew tall and strong. What's more, the government held a virtual monopoly over its creation for several decades -- and after all, the market was its creation....

Filed Under: credit crunch, Freddie Mac, government bonds, great depression, Real Estate, real-estate, recession, subprime, subprime mortgage, subprime mortgages, Wall Street
Category: Economy


European Stocks: Fear and Greed
Elliott Wave International discusses how the current stocks sell-off is driven more by fear than rational thinking.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/9/2008 10:00:00 PM

You watch financial news, you know what's going on. Spooked by "concerns over a potential U.S. recession," investors are dumping shares on both sides of the pond. But if you ask us, what's going on here is as old as investing itself: fear and greed. Fear and greed move investors. Fear and greed move market prices, too.

Filed Under: recession, dax, fear, greed, european stocks, India Nifty, SENSEX, S&P CNX NIfty, China Shanghai Composite, iShares FTSE/Xinhua China Trust, iShares MSCI Emerging Index
Category: European Markets


The REAL "First Big Book on the Credit Crunch"
After the Fact Acclaim: Irony Speaks for Itself

by Robert Folsom
3/7/2008 5:15:00 PM

Yesterday I said that the Economist magazine had just published a favorable review of a book about the housing market crisis. The author is a respected financial journalist, and a thumbs up from a publication like the Economist suggests a book that deserves to be taken seriously. But consider these other quotes, specifically the "who" & "when" behind them...

Filed Under: Bear market, conquer the crash, deflation, Fed rate cut, Federal Reserve, Real Estate, recession, subprime, subprime mortgages, Wall Street
Category: Real Estate


There's More Than One Monetary Policy "Villain"
Greenspan's Reversal of Fortune

by Robert Folsom
3/6/2008 6:00:00 PM

The Economist magazine published a favorable review today of a book about the housing market crisis, and one comment from the review kind of jumped off the page: "The story has no single villain, but Alan Greenspan comes close. Under him, the Federal Reserve fuelled the housing boom by sharply cutting the cost of short-term money." So, from "Maestro" to "Villain" -- how's that for a reversal of fortune?

Filed Under: banking, Fed, Federal Reserve, Greenspan, personal finance, recession, Wall Street
Category: Economy


Super Bowl to Super Tuesday to Super Economic Letdown

by Susan Walker
3/6/2008 4:30:00 PM

The Super Tuesday primaries are history, and we still don't know who will be the Democratic and Republican nominees for the U.S. presidency this year. It's a situation similar to not yet knowing whether the U.S. economy has already slipped into a recession.

Filed Under: recession, Super Bowl, Super Tuesday, conquer the crash
Category: Economy


Growing Trend in "Bank Failure" Stories?
"Experts say you shouldn't panic"

by Robert Folsom
2/28/2008 6:00:00 PM

It's safe to assume that the "experts" really don't see this news as bad enough for me to jump out a window. So, when they say "don't panic," they probably mean something along the lines of: "Don't remove your money from the bank... or, for that matter, from the stock market either"....

Filed Under: bank of america, credit crunch, Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, Freddie Mae, recession, Wall St.
Category: Economy


"Stocks Rise" on the Worst Housing Market "Since the Great Depression"?
All the Rubbish That's Fit to Print

by Robert Folsom
2/25/2008 5:15:00 PM

Now, all this data sums up a clear-enough picture of the housing trend. It's uniformly bad. If your home's value stands anywhere near today's median price, you are approximately $30,000 poorer than you were 20 months ago. So why spell all this out? Heck, everyone knows the housing situation is ugly, with our without reading the particulars. My reason for putting the facts before you begins with this quote, which was typical of what stock market stories were saying around 11:00am this morning...

Filed Under: Federal Reserve, mortgage, Real Estate, recession
Category: Real Estate


What If You Hold an Auction, and Nobody Comes?

by Susan Walker
2/25/2008 1:45:00 PM

The U.S. government held an auction of its 30-year Treasury bonds today, but hardly anyone wanted to buy them at the anticipated 4.41% yield. They ended up going at 4.449%. One dealer called it a "massive boycott."

Filed Under: Treasury bonds, recession
Category: Interest Rates


How Low Can Wal-Mart's "Lower Prices" Go?
Fear of Recession Lures Shoppers

by Susan Walker
2/5/2008 11:15:00 AM

Some analysts point out that during recessions, people often trade down from the stores they normally shop at. By that token, as Target loses sales, Wal-Mart and wholesalers like Costco gain sales.But the question may become, where will cash-strapped consumers go to buy their goods when they can't even afford Wal-Mart's usual low prices?

Filed Under: Wal-Mart, recession, deflation
Category: Economy


Looking for the Real Fairy Tale?
Why the Fed Can't Head Off Recessions

by Editorial Staff
2/5/2008 10:45:00 AM

Does the Fed really know what it's doing? It seems like that's the fairy tale that most people want to believe.

Filed Under: Federal Reserve, Fed, recession
Category: Classic Prechter


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.